Member Info for 4Corners

@ Si - i am aware of the votes situation, but the way they control the board, i just have this gut feeling that they will screw minority. To this extent, they have put Lord Rubberstamp on the board today, who is the chairman of another Man Capital portfolio company (Egypt based Integrated Diagnostics, also listed on London)

I feel another lowball bid coming as Mazroui ramps up their holdings

@sirimc - doubt there is any point in contacting the company. Probably better to contact someone from the regulatory side - but I don't see any explicit violations. Or another large institutional shareholder - ee don't see anyone making any noise as it is too small to bother with. Nevertheless with SF & friends controlling 50% of the votes (or maybe 43% these days as Horizon didnt commit to the equity raise), its tough for a major investor unless Mazroui and Horizon switch sides. On the plus side, I think merger would require an approval from 75% of shareholders, which they clearly won't get. Perhaps to get this majority, they might do a dilutive capital raise where they can 'underwrite' the offering and increase the stake. Intentions still unclear, but the tone is definitely not minority friendly. Will find out by mid next month at the latest

Total disregard for the remaining 60% shareholders, and definitely playing games. I don't think they need to wait till June to make a bid in the low 20s.....rather any bid between now and June has to be at or above 22p. So if they are waiting for the June deadline, expect it to be in the mid teens. Accelerated/institutional placing works for me, as long as it is done at higher price. Will find out (hopefully) by mid next month.

@seanx, not worried about the underlying value. Just don't see any value unlock happening if management doesn't communicate. Its almost as if they don't want the share price to move. Its also painful to just watch this show - should get on with the capital raise and move on.

Let's not forget the $400m debt pile

It appears that the release today is a bare minimum just to meet their deadline - once again, disappointing communication from the board
1. Why is this still 'unaudited' figures? Its almost middle of the year....
2. No guidance on 2021 revenues or ebitda other than the higher utilization, which is not very useful to investors
3. Nothing on the planned capital raise.....
4. No call for investors - obviously they don't give a s**t

Looks like they are pushing to cross the 4 June deadline to make a lowball bid again.

Not holding me breath either on a takeover, unless SF wants to screw everyone and make a bid after 4 June (when they don't have to make a bid at 22p).
Paying down debt makes sense, but a $5m dividend has more impact on equity vs. paying down the same amount and saving on interest. If they do a $25m capital increase plus current market cap of $35m, you get $60m valuation. A dividend of $5m (not an impossible amount), means a lot to the equity holders at current prices.

....but the only way to make money out of this stock is to hold it and collect the dividends or if someone makes a bid for the entire business. Zero interest in the shares from other investors (so far)

Earnings tomorrow?

thin volumes ahead of earnings next week, along with details of the $25m capital raise

Happy if i see 10p stable price to start with....

Their corporate broker Panmure came out with a report and target price of 20p. Not sure many follow this broker and I believe it is owned by Qatar institution

Just wondering when and at what price they will issue new equity - should happen within next month so as to clear the June deadline set by the banks. I still don't see sustained prices significantly above 10p levels till there is clarity on the bottomline this year, which in my view is very likely to be positive given the lower depreciation expense

Based on? Technicals?

This will be a dead stock for some time given the poor level of disclosure or till there is a buy out at whatever price

Absolutely right 547. What more can we expect from a puppet board :)

Looks like no news before the open.....maybe they forgot that there are other shareholders :)

@Capt - you are missing the fact that this is currently a microcap stock, with new investors comprised solely of retail investors (or rather day traders). Institutions won't even buy into this as it won't pass their size criteria with a $35M market cap - the current institutional investors got in at the IPO time when the company was valued at $500M+. Market needs to see clear profitability guidance post this cleanup, but in any case, my view has been that the eventual bidder is SF.

Current value + $25m raise gives $60M valuation. Possible they will be net income positive this year with the lowered lending cost and depreciation charge. For 2019, depreciation + finance cost + tax = $65M. For 2021, this could be $50M or lower. Assuming all clean up done in 2020 and no one off costs in 2021, an EBITDA of $51M means breakeven at net income level. If they improve to $60M EBITDA, you are looking at net profit easily in excess of $6M (or 10 times post dilution earnings). Deleverage and invest in some growth, and you are buying a company today for 5 or 6 times earnings in couple of years. Of course, this will not be a straight line, as with all things in life.

As long as SF does not reverse merge into GMS that screws minority holders, I think we are fine.

@camkite - there is an impairment of their vessels to the tune of 80 - 90m

"As a result of that process, the Board is of the view that the carrying book value, across a number of the Company's barges, should be impaired, such impairment expected, once finalised with the Company's Auditors, to be in the range of $80m-$90m"

1. Debt - fixed, with savings of $50m over 2021 and 2022
2. Capital raise - $25m by June 2021, with commitments from SF and Mazroui
3. Operations - EBITDA guidance cut, impairment of 90m, write off of fees paid to advisors (cleaning up the books)
4. 2021 guidance - not much by way of numbers, but seem positive
Overall positive, and I am relieved that the new board has delivered!