RE: Sp13 Oct 2021 14:19
It is just a beginning.........
But a very good one.
While the actual gas injection at BFU started slightly behind schedule, once it started
the impact has been visible in the crude oil production increase. On monthly average
basis, production has been in line with the CPR expectations, in our view. As
presented in Figure 4, if this monthly trend continues, we estimate that the 2021
production will be in line with the CPR. However, although it is still early and only
few data points are available, we point to two potential signs for outperformance
beyond the CPR’s scenario:
1) The company reported several daily production rates (June 30th, August
17th, and September 1st) significantly above the average daily rates (Figure
4). This arguably demonstrates that the asset can deliver levels significantly
above the CPR scenario, and potentially more in line with the International
Reservoir Technologies Inc (IRT) simulation scenario (assuming these
outperforming levels can be achieved on consistent basis).
2) It is also worth noting that the reported average crude oil production levels
were achieved with lower-than-expected gas injection levels. While the
company was hoping to achieve injection levels of 10mmscf/d, the average
injection level in the first five months was c.7mmscf/d (due to slower ramp-
up and shortage of butane). Therefore, reaching the 10mmscf/d injection
level may potentially increase the average production rates beyond the CPR
scenario, but this remains to be confirmed with time.