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Shorting down here seems really quite risky to me, it's down over 75% from the 2021 high. I think shorting it is a trendy and fairly liquid way to play the inflation/supply chain/falling real wages theme but those adding to shorts here are catching on very, very late. ASOS's stated net assets are over a billion quid.

Could it fall another 20%? Sure. But I think the risk reward for shorting here is terrible. When the shares were high the short interest was tiny. Now the shares are very low they hate it.

M&A interest seems very likely down here. If this was a US company there's no way it would be anything like this cheap. In a steady but relentless way, ASOS has made itself a big player and it's going to continue getting bigger. People focused on macro issues etc. are missing the micro story and as a result the shares are getting very overstretched. My average is £18.50.

I've doubled down here. Average now £18.50.

Doesn't change ongoing repayment levels.

I'm not sure about that. I think they'll want the cash on the balance sheet. Safety first.

Hopefully they're working on restoring production now. According to UK MoD, Russians are out of northern Ukraine.

They've been doing growth plans for years - and now we're really benefiting - but the only way they could deploy this kind of cash balance + ongoing generation is M&A. That's risky. I want special dividends.

I have plenty of interest, just not much new to say.

It's mispriced, it became slightly less mispriced today. If it doesn't make a big move before then, the mispricing will be further demonstrated by the statement/results this month.

I don't think this company will be appropriately valued until we get special dividends.

Yes, it removes one horrible tail risk.
Now we're left with rising interest rates/cost of living squeeze.

Gove going mental with planning rules/requirements is a risk too. He has always fancied himself a radical. When he was education secretary he fell out with the teachers' unions.

Yes, I know that, but the previous amount was already disclosed. We've had months of talk of Gove forcing listed builders to pay £4B.

We're out of that mess for £80M. It's a great result.

It's a great result. Only £80M and that's the end of the issue for TW.

"Morocco: 2022 production guidance is lower than 2021 production as the Company decided not to immediately renew a five-year customer contract that expired on 31 December 2021 until the Company has better visibility on future gas supply and pricing to support the full term of a new contract. This decision is the main factor for a reduction in Moroccan capex guidance in 2022 which is c.US$6.0 million (32%) lower than FY21 capex. The Company is exploring several options for re-entering into discussions with this customer."

They did make it sound like their decision, but I think the mention of pricing indicates negotiations with the customer failed.

Sorry it's ended that way for you Shakey. I don't know if you saw but I recently bought back in at 8.25p. The only reason I did it is because I think the company's operations themselves were valued at less than $5M (even less now!)

They managed to get a hit on Warda despite it only being a 40% chance and they should hit Sobhi East at 80%+ chance. Mohsen is 45% and is of a decent size. The real value of SD is somewhat underpinned by the recent sale.
West Gharib is quite exciting given the oil price environment, and the company's valuation.
Morocco seems something of a disaster. God knows what the new venture is meant to be. I don't understand why the customer they lost wouldn't agree a new contract given the alternative is supposedly much less attractive. I can see the operation there being wound down.

No, these analysts live and die by getting companies to pay them to produce reports. The companies won't want bearish reports.

I don't know for sure about BNP, but Auctus is paid to produce reports. Their price targets are worthless, but they might be worth reading because they get info from management..

At this price level and company size, I think real value lies in liquidating the business. The market is currently valuing the business itself at less than $5M.

Any "growth" strategy is almost certainly going to involve wild drills in Morocco or SD. That turns a cigar butt into a gamble.

Ah, I missed that it's not until monday.

Anyone listen? Anything interesting happen? (I doubt it).
It's pretty absurd that you had to email to get the details of the call. Why not stream it on YouTube?

Praise be to the Sheiks

I'm astonished they've restarted production. Their areas seem to be under Russian control at the moment, I suppose that brings stability of a kind but even so.

It's very bullish that there's no mention of damage to their equipment.

But an oil price crash is what investors here should be hoping for.

It's because they don't pay out the cash. If they said they were paying a $200M special dividend we'd probably double.