Member Info for 2phevs

https://news.sky.com/story/jupiter-to-sell-100m-starling-bank-stake-at-steep-valuation-discount-12703112

Big jump Pokerchips in the yen around 2% swing up against all major currencies around 9-9.45am can't find any reason reminds me of some of the 2008-2009 major move days when the dollar crashed over a few months along with oil

Really sorry Don Broco
Got Goldenyears filtered a month or so ago now should of known by the green boxes

As discussed here before DonBroco Myprotein sells its products in Tesco now
Not sure why your mentioning restrict but Iceland and THG are going to do probably a whole chest of ready meal products like TGi fridays chest freezer they currently do and Chiquitto Catherdral city I think there is another couple of brands right in front of you as you first walk in looks very eye-catching and command prices with excellent sell by dates

luckily our sales in the US and Middle East (dollar pegged) far out way that market Pokerchips and hopefully still give us a tailwind but not as much

India could be a big one steve1001 with the obesity problems for the middle class there OPTI has a partnership with THG with links to this market not sure whether the OPTI partnership has been mentioned before here

Personally page 9 and page 12 are the most revealing for me

9 reveals a little bar chart at the bottom
Automation reducing distribution costs as a percentage of revenue
The drop in the 1st half 22 is fantastic compared to h1 21 £10 mill saving that must have nearly paid half of the automation costs looking like a worst case 3-year ROI based on my research into costs of smart warehouses of roughly £200 per square foot.

Adjusted Ebitda heavily affected by adjusted Saas DIDN'T affect cashflow so where did it go page 12

Page 12

Ahhh

Net working capital outflow in the first half of the year
typical, with a c.£75m one-off cash investment principally for
new warehouse launches and in quicker supplier payments

With seasonal peak trading ahead, H2 2022 is expected to
be cash generative as in all previous years, with lower
inventory at the year-end vs prior year

Last few words very telling that over investment in inventory has affected cashflow

Personally, I'm now happy THG will have over £500 mill at FY 22 roll on peak trading presents and consumers restocking used products.

Accelerated payments to suppliers and filling warehouses to the rafters as mentioned in the RNS maybe HH

Hopefully equates to huge cash inflows once sold BTW 555 and crew you can't buy beauty products and continue wearing them like clothes you need to repurchase once they've run out clothes can be washed and re worn technically for many years

Including frozen puddings as currently been bought with short BB dates from chillers by millions of young professionals and before 555 (funny relates to an algo short amount mentioned here) and crew diss Iceland THERE IS NO MORE LOYALTY AT SUPERMARKETS if a new protein product is good, it will fly.

https://www.business-live.co.uk/retail-consumer/thg-brand-myprotein-bags-landmark-25070528

Agree oculus and Ms450
I want to find out if money has been blown on fitting out MM's personal property portfolio with no allowances given back to THG and full repayment of costs on unused property that as chair of and CEO of THG his vision of full immediate use of the properties by ingenuity was wrong all costs should be refunded immediately and drip fed back on a "in use basis" hope this gets back to MM

Oculus looked over kingfishers results today and they mention large inventory build like THG resulting in cashflow reduction so maybe something in it

Looks like your having the my way or the highway treatment off goldenyears now dg just give it the green box filtered treatment

I wonder if recent downgrades also have built in their algo modeling energy use on a sq ft basis because if they have gone fully on
pretty sure actual use will be a lot less than that based on current utilisation of facilities

Defo gearing up to take onsite investigation here just need to find some free EV charging place to make investigations FOC

Would of liked a bit more detail of this paragraph in the rns and would of liked an analyst on the call to of asked about it

Whilst inflation is easing in core areas such as commodities, the majority of margin benefits will be realised in the fourth quarter due to forward buying plans. Therefore the Group now expects FY 2022 adjusted EBITDA between a range of £100m to £130m pre SaaS cost reclassification reflecting:

Oke if thg nutrition biz is 300 mill h1 gross margin is 45% and let's say 100 mill is not sweet whey derived then the raw cost aspect of the sweet whey is around 110 mill per 6 months therefore if raw costs increased 40% which they did h1 then this equates to 44 mill loss of pure profit and actual cash for 6 months
Funny that 44 mill figure keeps coming up that's the extra cash thg are getting from an asset disposal and its mentioned in the rns a few times in other items mmmmm
So whey costs have come down at least 25% that equates to 30 mill actual cash positive for the last 6 months of 22 as they mention forward buying in the aforementioned rns paragraph
This is the only way I can make sense of how the whey prices make thg cashflow positive positive or not
Perhaps we can all hedge whey prices and hope beauty and ingenuity smash it going forward

New average forecast announced 3 hours ago 142p not far off ask traders 135 NAV the other day

Sorry wildtiger I think it's actually now nearly 10x the rev of 2014 and was supposed to be 10x ebitda probably more like 5x now this year you can find THG's historical figures on Google in an old presentation

Kkr paid £100 mill for 20% back in 2014 around 40p a share at todays mcap I imagine it would of been more than that in 2016
Just amazing that the SP is back to 2014 PE levels when it is now 5x the revenue and ebitda with billions spent on acquisitions/capex since wildtiger
Traintrack we'd all love to have those numbers but factor in that all nutrition revenues are not just whey

Defo would be a good (2 steps back to go forward) move to utilise unused space at Manchester Airport for Northwich staff and start consolidating the business by getting everybody to knuckle down together

Really enjoying the holiday HH the relaxing reflection time has really helped me to focus in on tenaciously knocking on doors when I get back due to the less than transparent report we were promised regarding strategy
If you look back at my posts I'm right behind thg and still am but will not accept CEO **** taking of dual interests of physical properties

HH really respect you and many other bb traders I've come across on many investments I've made over the past couple of years
However MM is taking the prevurbable **** as a landlord on fitt out costs and lease liabilities

MM has got to relinquish lease liabilties to a 3rd party professional and give huge landlord allowances to thg for the huge fit out costs

Starting to really buckle down on this company will be knocking on doors very soon

Yep HH heard that sentence so betaville is no beta than us
Really starting to get me dander up with this company I'm about 20 miles away from Manchester Airport and ready to knock on doors and ask tenaciously repeatively questions everyday on behalf of all of us and very willing to reply back with integraty to this bb
Get back from hols on Wednesday so please post professional list of questions that I can try to get answered