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Older, if the pilot plant is off the table then they will move straight to the 25Ktpa plant. Ballpark figure they will need to raise £20million. (based on the original idea of a 75Ktpa costing $80m which is £60m).
option 1 - pilot plant - raise £2m @ say 3p as example, 67 million share issue
option 2 - 25Ktpa plant - raise £20m @ say 3p as example, 670 million share issue
Then over the course of 10 years add 2 or 3 more 25Ktpa plants.
Shares currently in issue 178m. Going straight for the main plant (25Ktpa) would dilute shares down to 20%.
Gross profit from the 25Ktpa would be $500*25000 which is £9.4m giving a (5x) market cap of £47m but value is diluted
so it would be equivalent to £9.4m which is only slightly above where it is now.
Mike Ralston will be paid more but it is doubtful the shareholders will be better off.
Will the Nickel pit be better?
I guess it is about agility - make it fit. "..Alpha Growth maintained that attracting the attention of prospective clients remained its "core strategy" and said that its presence at the Alternative Investment Club event by the Swiss Financial Services "elevated its visibility among the investment community". The focus is more than ever on uncorrelated assets.
Basically the business model has not changed. Funding will fuel the fire. The "lender" is not the be-all end-all as intimated - and we await development. Consider that marketing is directed at ultra-rich and this return is a match for them - always in the background there are big investors.
Put yourself in Gobind's shoes.
I believe that his opinion is that he has given you an opportunity to take part in a fantastic investment.
He has personally put in place the tax efficient attraction for investors. DS is the top LS market maker. AK has an extensive group of clients.
To be fair, he clearly should not make promises on timing of news. However, the outlook for Alpha Growth is very positive. The nature of the business has not changed and the best people are still in place. GLA
cj62
17th March VOX indicates that they are anticipating something. If they already knew they would have said at the time.
In my opinion, they don't need an RNS to say "RCF decision is expected early April" as that is subjective.
They do need an RNS if they say "RCF has been signed off".
It is indeed WW3 and people are jumping of buildings maybe?...actually markets stabilised today.
You convinced me at "..I should not even be commenting here.." lol
Get back in your hole :O)
19. WOW - CHECK THIS ONE AS A REASON (ONE OF JUSTIN WAITE'S CRITERIA) This is a scalable, low overhead business which has potential ahead to 10bag, 20bag etc.20. Based on the projected targets Y1:FUM $100m, Y2:FUM $350m etc, the projected FUM after 8 years will be approaching $8 Billion
21. Potential for asset manager(s) to increase credit facility
22. The initial $100m trade target for year 1 indicates confidence of business
developing quickly. After Y2, expected annual increment more than $250m
23. When asked about 3-5 year target/valuation: Danny Swick's reply "..Yes, I think the ultimate goal which I think about on a regular basis is where we get to a point where we have a market cap in excess of $100million.."
24. "..The life settlements market could experience a double-digit compound gross market annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade, according to a forecast from investment management consultancy Conning.."
"..By 2028, Conning expect the market to have seen an impressive $212 billion of life settlements, while on an annual issuance basis the average of its ten-year forecast for the annual volume of new life settlements is roughly $6.4 billion.."
"..Undoubtedly, the life settlement industry is advancing rapidly on all fronts, and there is every reason to believe it has a bright future ahead."
https://www.artemis.bm/news/life-settlements-forecast-for-double-digit-cagr-over-next-decade-conning/
25. Highly respected institutional investors have individually invested in life settlements worth billions of dollars. These include: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Deutsche Bank, AIG, Credit Suisse, Fortress, Apollo Global Management.
26. “We believe that life settlements are going to be very common consumer transactions in the future,” says Acheson, noting that “reverse mortgages were not well-understood or widely accepted 15 years ago.”
https://www.cfo.com/profiles/2016/04/life-settlements-cfo-eyes-vast-potential-market/
$100million revolving credit facility about to be inked with asset manager.
27. Jason Sutherland of Alpha Growth is linked with Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Group and has negotiated and structured multiple warehouse facilities between $30mn and $600mn.
28. Update expected between now and end of March - AS NOTIFIED BY 17 MARCH 2020 VOX MESSAGE.
Before I list them.. here is a notable point from the 17 March 2020 VOX message:
".. we are in the fortunate position of being able to just wait and watch our portfolio build value as the insured portfolio matures.."
The reasons to add Alpha Growth to your watchlist are overwhelming. Life settlements is an industry in its "infancy" and set to become commonplace as it is already established for its strong, stable and market-unaffected (un-correlated) as an investment.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1. Alpha has probably the top life settlements market maker, Danny Swick, with $8Billion of trading experience.
2. Alpha with SLIM has in-house actuarial expertise specific to life policies - a quality not found in usual settlement businesses
3. The above two points are validated in the progress towards $100million credit facility
4. Points 1&2 are inlet and processing. Austin King, with extensive connections has been brought in for the outlet; the sales.
5. KPMG has validated a 16.2% annualised return on this uncorrelated asset
6. "this uncorrelated asset": the asset class is not affected by general market
7. Alpha has structured a tax-efficient system which will bring in global investors
8. Black Oak fund has already received commitments for seed capital of $15 million
9. The market is absolutely massive at $19Trillion with $57Billion policies lapsing each year
10. Only $2.8Billion of policies are settled each year. The $57Billion lapsing is there to be taken.
11. The market will climb over the next 10years as baby boomers retire
Further reference: "The number of seniors (Age 65+) is projected to continue rising from 42 million in 2012 to an estimated 70 million in 2030."
"So, both the supply of qualified policies, as well as demand for life settlements, is growing."
https://windsorlifesettlements.com/life-settlement-market/
12. Note the wave retiring is more tech-savvy, internet dependent: ideal for targeted marketing
13. Point 12 also means that social media / marketing will build life settlement awareness
14. Perhaps THE key point: Life settlement is a great option, far better than surrender or lapsing
15. The $100million credit facility can be used to buy $500m of face value and repeated 4x per year
16. Alpha has a unique situation with specific talents amalgamated for Life Settlement
17. Legislation is already present in 6 states to ensure life policy holders are made aware of the settlement option.
18. 2019 Annual report: "..For 2020, we expect to be generating material revenues and as 2019 closes, at the date of this report, the company has approximately £450,000 of cash balances, so the group is very well positioned as we move into this new phase.."
see next post for list continuation...
jgj99, looks like it will be an update and not just going over business model
"..Alpha plans to update shareholders before the end of the month through a Vox Markets podcast.."
This may suggest that they are anticipating being able to report a development in that time frame. Otherwise they would have just put out a business model talk today.
In the 02 Dec 2020 RNS release GS said:
"..I look forward to updating the market shortly on the other aspects of the business.."
"..will be updating the market in the very near term.."
Next thing, at the AGM Gobind Sahney tells Giles Fitz.. on RCF "..doesn't think they will need it for very long.."
Other aspects of the business with near-term progress..and now they don't think they will need the RCF for very long.
Looks like big news on the way and not necessarily dependent on RCF timing.
The RCF is being finalised and the life settlement industry is looking better than ever. In these circumstances, I believe news of the RCF being signed will make an even bigger impact.
13 March 2020
"..Data from Managing Partners Group suggests that traded life settlements have proven a reslient asset class in recent months and days.."
https://www.investmenteurope.net/news/4012429/traded-life-settlements-fund-provider-spies-resilience-amidst-meltdown-markets
22. The initial $100m trade target for year 1 indicates confidence of business developing quickly. After Y2, expected annual increment more than $250m
23. When asked about 3-5 year target/valuation: Danny Swick's reply "..Yes, I think the ultimate goal which I think about on a regular basis is where we get to a point where we have a market cap in excess of $100million.."
24. "..The life settlements market could experience a double-digit compound gross market annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade, according to a forecast from investment management consultancy Conning.."
"..By 2028, Conning expect the market to have seen an impressive $212 billion of life settlements, while on an annual issuance basis the average of its ten-year forecast for the annual volume of new life settlements is roughly $6.4 billion.."
"..Undoubtedly, the life settlement industry is advancing rapidly on all fronts, and there is every reason to believe it has a bright future ahead."
https://www.artemis.bm/news/life-settlements-forecast-for-double-digit-cagr-over-next-decade-conning/
25. Highly respected institutional investors have individually invested in life settlements worth billions of dollars. These include: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Deutsche Bank, AIG, Credit Suisse, Fortress, Apollo Global Management.
26. “We believe that life settlements are going to be very common consumer transactions in the future,” says Acheson, noting that “reverse mortgages were not well-understood or widely accepted 15 years ago.”
https://www.cfo.com/profiles/2016/04/life-settlements-cfo-eyes-vast-potential-market/
$100million revolving credit facility about to be inked with asset manager.
27. Jason Sutherland of Alpha Growth is linked with Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Group and has negotiated and structured multiple warehouse facilities between $30mn and $600mn.