RE: The Two Ronnies5 Dec 2022 10:11
Great the other Ronnie has replied and happily there is an exclamation mark included (couldn’t resist could you…..lol). Now let me help you “two” gain some much needed knowledge. For the SP situation firstly:
The PDL peak SP in past year was 138p set at cob 19 April 2022.
Surprise surprise guy(s) but just about every commodity stock (big/medium/small) also had their peak SP set at around the same time……It was the Ukraine war impact etc kicking in to the global economic outlook adversely hitting the markets.
For example let’s look at the other London market listed Diamond producer having its operations in South Africa region for comparison, namely Gem Diamonds (ticker: GEMD). It’s SP peak was 77p set on the same date 19 April 2022.
Now comparing their SP’s today: PDL = 92/138 = 33% drop, whilst GEMD = 33/77 = 56% drop. So Petra is fairing much better than this peer.
Now let’s look at the history of the PDL SP at the time of recent news releases and nearby dates:
10th Oct - Day before FY22 Annual report issued - SP = 111p
11th Oct - FY22 Annual Report issued (contained the enhanced PSP details) - SP = 115p
17th Oct - circa 1 week after FY22 Report issued - SP = 120p
4th Nov - Day before Williamson tailings issue announced - SP = 115p
7th Nov - Williamson tailings issue first announced - SP = 110p
9th Nov - Day before Williamson tailing issue further news & EPSP news announced - SP = 110p
10th Nov - Williamson tailings issue further news & EPSP news announced - SP = 101p
29th Nov - Day before Williamson tailings issue further news announced - SP = 95p
30th Nov - Williamson tailings issue further news announced - SP = 88p
From this summary it is pretty clear that it’s been the tailings issue at Williamson that has been the drag on SP in the past month and even then it’s been quite muted at circa 20% SP drop. The EPSP details were known since 11th Oct and the related news on 10th Nov was only advising that major shareholders were supportive ahead of AGM voting and therefore it is IMO a red herring story that you “two guys” are peddling for the EPSP having adversely impacted the SP, when there is no associated evidence in the SP action from the last two months.
Indeed one can take the reasonable view that the EPSP is with hindsight a positive as it increases the incentive for the executive Management to most expeditiously resolve the Williams tailings issue, as it is likely risking to impact on their associated KPI’s performance. Another party that is incentivised to expeditiously resolve the Williams tailings issue is the Tanzanian government who hold a 25% ownership, so we can expect their maximum support.
I will post a separate message regarding my “thoughts on the pay awards” so I don’t overload you “two guys” with too much factual information in one go. I don’t want you getting to big a headache in one hit……lol.