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Trump signs healthcare executive order that includes a win for pharma companies

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/trump-signs-healthcare-executive-order-that-includes-a-win-for-pharma-companies.html

The last Frasers Tr1 was a result of purchasing just 2,036,706 shares, this time its different requiring almost a full 1% or c13m or thereabouts..

Its past elevenses and barely 360k traded so far, time to break out the Hob Nobs..

Tuesday, April 15th, 2025

125% tariffs slam US dairy exports to China—whey markets collapse, global trade reshaped. Can farmers adapt?

https://www.thebullvine.com/news/84-tariff-shock-how-the-us-china-trade-war-will-reshape-your-dairy-business/

That's a good link YB, also has some limited background (separate link) on increased production backing up comments by THG/Glanbia CEO's.

'Large investments in US cheese and whey capacity will significantly expand production through 2026 and increase the US’ share of the global market in the long term.'

FMD a real and ongoing problem Cong.

Early US quotes indicating further declines.

Some interesting numbers and trends, just confirms what we already know but the mention of plant based alternatives has popped up on both sides of the pond recently.

Europe's Whey Protein Ingredients Market Size to Grow by 64% by 2033

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/europes-whey-protein-ingredients-market-091800852.html

Coffee chains in the US have removed premiums for dairy alternatives which has prompted an increase, something to watch given he sports nutrition markets reliance on whey.

'Whey forward' was one option offered by MP.

Its the uncertainty that makes markets flap, that and the normally stable bond market which as a rule acts inversely but not this time.

I don't think Trump can escape the US deficit issue, this could be compounded by yields rising on treasuries due to large holders (China and Japan) selling down holdings, one attractive option Trump has is to sell off the gold reserves given recent highs.

Its a very fragile situation with few options available.

Chinese bourses have set daily restrictions on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, four sources said Friday, as Beijing steps up support for its stock markets in an intensifying trade war with the United States.

Two investor sources said a soft limit on daily net sales by individual hedge funds and big retail investors - implemented through verbal warnings from brokerages - had been set at 50 million yuan ($6.83 million).

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/chinese-exchanges-restrict-daily-stock-sales-as-trade-war-with-us-escalates-sources-say.html

TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - Japan must strengthen the yen, such as by helping boost the country’s industrial competitiveness, as the currency’s weakness has pushed up households’ living costs, the ruling party’s policy chief said on Sunday

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/japan-official-wants-stronger-yen-says-tokyo-shouldnt-sell-treasurys.html

This sell-off was way overdue, market searching for a reason and found a very obvious one.

I know this is an unpopular view, but we needed a capitulation type of move in order to go forward imo.

Patient Capital have increased marginally quarter on quarter ..

https://patientcapitalmanagement.com/documents/FG/patient_capital/opportunity_trust/624817_Opportunity_Trust_1Q25_Holdings_Website.pdf

FX movements can be clearly seen on the per ton prices with a 5.88% drop for EU v 1.10% US denominated per ton price.

That's huge drop for one week but makes it cheaper to import US whey as EUR has risen strongly against the Dollar..

That's my take anyway, happy to be corrected..

The drop is mainly US whey due to tariffs being imposed on China, that said there is some correlation to EU prices but other factors play a part too such as FX.

Its also worth noting that data collated by CLAL (below) is collected by USDA from a pool of contacts over a two week period, this is different to the spot/futures prices across the pond which reflect daily/futures demand.

Basically, it could be lagging a bit given the fast pace of events recently, which as i write has changed again with exemptions coming in for electronics including iphones and other electronics.

Might see a bit more sparkle come Monday..

I would imagine if all else stays the same US will start to divert supplies to EU where prices remain elevated.

US price is approaching 40 cents mark, give or take the odd couple of cents this is a rough average, 30 cents would be at the bottom end of historic scale.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/DGK25/interactive-chart

84% Chinese Tariffs Slam US Dairy: Why Whey & Lactose Exports Face Crisis

https://www.thebullvine.com/news/84-chinese-tariffs-slam-us-dairy-why-whey-lactose-exports-face-crisis/

If the US beauty/nutrition industry has any products shipped in from China it should benefit those that don't, no idea where products come from for companies like Ulta and of course THG.

Dermstore is a big bit of beauty being a long established US brand, would hope that's 100% US manufactured.

Shein listing looks likely to go ahead in London, is it because no one else will have them they are relegated to London..

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14598217/

Watching this bit with interest, wait until people start clicking on their Amazon basket with a doubling of prices.

'removing a 'de minimis' exemption that allowed packages worth under $800 to be shipped duty-free to the US'

Chinese firms set aside US$2.7 billion for stock buy-backs as Trump’s tariffs roil markets

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3305967/chinese-firms-set-aside-us27-billion-stock-buy-backs-trumps-tariffs-roil-markets?module=top_story&pgtype=section

Investing.com -- Shares of Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd ADR (NYSE:BABA) surged 5.9% in pre-market trading today following Reuters’ report that China’s top leaders are planning to meet to discuss measures aimed at boosting the economy and stabilizing capital markets.

This move comes as tensions from the trade war with the United States intensify, prompting concerns over economic growth and market stability.

In response to the escalation of trade disputes, which included a near doubling of U.S. duties on imports from China to 104% last week, Chinese officials are convening to formulate strategies to mitigate the impact. The meeting, expected to take place as soon as Wednesday, will involve senior officials from the State Council, or cabinet, along with representatives from various government and regulatory bodies, the report added.

Its worth maybe thinking outside of the box a bit with these tariffs, yes, on the surface they look bad for business but what about the consumer ?

If the UK follows EU with a zero to zero policy, i.e removing tariffs on some/all US imports the net effect will be a reduction in shop prices, couple this with commodity prices also dropping (oil/NG) could open the path to much lower interest rates.

Many analysts are pointing out how inflationary it could be, surely this must be limited to the US only as that's where the tariffs originate from, obviously that changes if EU/UK decides to go down the retaliatory route..

That didn't take much, EU have rolled over agreeing to zero for zero policy at least on industrial products, not cutting the ice though, Trump looking for concessions on food imports similar to UK.

EU must be spitting feathers looking at deal UK has..could we get that down also?

Meanwhile VW cars are piling up in American ports presumably waiting for a deal to be struck.

Markets

Japanese yen and Swiss franc top hedges against Trump tariffs, according to analysts

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/japan-yen-swiss-franc-top-hedges-against-trump-tariffs-analysts-say.html

The Group has provided an analysis of external revenue by region (by destination):

2023

£’000

UK 937,125

USA 379,977

Europe 427,713

Rest of the world 300,563

Total 2,045,378