Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Fully aware there is risk here and possibly large dilution. Personally don't think company will fold but there could be a doubling of shares to cover short term debt repayment. Longer term should be OK but would be a much reduced target SP for me.
Now that costs are known at full mill capacity I can see company getting long term finance for ore sorter. Its in Newgens interest as they also have a shareholding:
'the Company and NewGen Resource Lending Inc. ("NewGen") have mutually agreed to amend the third tranche of the Loan Note from US$7.8 million to a higher total of $8.0 million comprising US$3.0 million debt plus US$5.0 million in equity.'
'The Company will also issue 535,848 agent warrants over ordinary shares in the Company in connection with the equity financing. The number of warrants represent 5% of the total number of shares issued in the equity financing. The exercise price of the warrants is 35 pence and the warrants expire in 4 years from the date of issue.
I can't see Newgen interest in company folding and will be looking to assist with reducing costs further.
Totally agree, Ore sorter funding on long term basis sorts out repayment of current liabilities as expect this could reduce costs to around $2.50 - $2.60.
This RNS a lot better than I was expecting. Was expecting going concern paragraph as was spelt out in last RNS on capital requirements.
Was expecting C1 costs to be around $3.50 or higher based on that last RNS, so to see cost of around $2.80 by year end would be impressive and actually lower than I was originally expecting in view of inflation.
Well a lot better than I was expecting. Yes costs not where we want be but looking good going for remaining year. Production down to where I was expecting following financial issues but C1 costs look to be OK :
'When looking at the operating performance, a C1 operating cost in June 2022 of $2.91/lb is starting to show the true potential of this mine. This incorporates all the price increases experienced over the period and we expect this number to continue to reduce. We project our C1 cost at the end of 2022 to be in the range of $2.70-2.80/lb'
'In the meanwhile, with the flexibility we have created in the mine with the advanced level of development, we are reducing development activity. The increased ore tonnage per level that we are seeing in the Lower Footwall Zone gives us this near-term flexibility to adjust to the current downturn in the copper price.'
'The need to bring capital into the business is to ensure that long-standing legacy commitments are met and not to support on-going operations. The current drop in copper price is one which we believe to be temporary, but we also recognise the volatility in the market.'
Overall worse case scenerio would be share placing if loans cannot be renegotiated.
Personally think the loans renegotiation should work out in view of C1 costs but nothing is guaranteed.
C1 costs on the lower end of my projection for company in June. I was expecting it to be over $3.
Look forward to others views.
LME are down approximately 135,000 tonnes on a year earlier based upon my research. Currently approximately 121,000 tonnes. From August through to December inventories reduced by approximately 175,000 tonnes. This downward inventory trend has continued for past 5 years. We are expecting new mines to start producing but other mines have reduced production forecasts. Its going to be an interesting few months in respect to what happens to copper price. If there is a squeeze then could see real volatility in price and potential spikes.
Please let me know if I have read the graphs wrong from past year!
Keep up Moon, we moved away from the planed 6 stopes last year. BoD have confirmed one stope is more than enough to feed mill but aim to have two in production at any one time whilst they develop others. So yes there are currently 4 ready for production and this is likely to decrease to 2 in the future as stopes production ceases and development work commences.
Be nice if you could stop scaremongering and stick to the facts even if they are negative at times (hopefully we can go through a period without them but this is mining!)
As Aubery stated hoping for less volatility and hoping moving to quarterly reporting helps this.
Mike, generally SP increase / decrease has mirrored copper price and is to be expected but it would be good to know AISC going forward. Fingers crossed they will be released with interim accounts. I believe the SP sell off has been well overdone and the corrections downwards in share price has been generally slightly more following monthly news since January.
The SP decline overall had mirrored many other AIM miners and generally over these past few months and for investors its hurt. Hopefully the SP increases for the next few months as copper squeeze is recognised. Of course there is so much happening in the world at present you can't predict anything with any certainty currently.
Aubery, there were a number of macroeconomic conditions which assisted with overall price decline in my view. There is a also a correlation with increasing SP into production results and decline following them.
The economic conditions for global recession are still there and energy production. Even so SP looks to have stabilised and now increasing.
Moving to quarterly reporting has been beneficial to the SP and longer term aspirations on raising cash (if/when required) for further development work at the mine.
Since moving to monthly reporting there was a continual general decline in SP with spikes leading up to monthly reporting. A traders dream but not not good for long term investors or IIs for that matter.
Since the move back to quarterly reporting their was the initial drop in SP but a strong recover since and should continue to do so even with quarterly reporting fluctuations as the returns being made for traders reduces. If your in any doubt look at the graphs from the past year leading into months reporting and subsequent falls.
Rambler have turned the corner and with copper inventories falling and investment in renewables accelerating it is well placed with increasing production of copper. Once investors and IIs see the change in trade of SP they will start to invest for the long term pushing up SP to where it should be.
Good luck and as always do your own research to check the facts and opportunity Rambler provides.
Rambler continue to add additional equipment, which is driving down overall costs as mining zones expanded:
'added a third drill to our program, called a "termite" or "packsack" drill, that is currently drilling short holes (up to 30m long) testing ore extents in and around currently developed levels of the mine. We are using the termite drill data to better refine our stoping shapes, drill and blast design and ground control systems. This in turn enhances the overall control that we have over the mining process and creates a more stable platform from which to produce. In the LFZ particularly, the termite drilling program is returning information that is enabling us to expand ore zones while maintaining production grade targets, hence returning increased ore tonnes available per level'
Once again finding new zones near, 30 metres, to existing infrastructure which keeps development costs down:
'The Ezekiel Zone is the third previously unknown zone of mineralisation discovered this year, the first two being the Jennings zone and the LP East zone. Like the first two discoveries, the EZZ is close to existing mining infrastructure, potentially creating further near-term optionality to the mine plan'
It really does build on a very cost effective underground mine. Just need those confirmed costs to justify our belief in Rambler.
GGG think it's time to flip the switch on your repeat recorder on production. Management have made their decision and I for one am happy they have moved to quarterly reporting even if this has meant a drop in SP as traders exit their positions.
Provided production is in line with forecasts and costs are I line with expectations the SP will rerate.
I was only aware of the the one stope issue last year. Nothing about propping up! please enlighten us!
Another 50,000 shares purchased. Its great to see. This SP will turn and we should see a decent rerate even in these uncertain times.
Currently the BoD has the majority support of its shareholders. The PI investment is relatively small here and therefore I cannot see any change at the top. There may be a head or two which may roll following the robbery but this is unknown with limited information provided.
Based upon these facts if your not happy with the BoD this is not a share to be invested in as PIs have Little say.
the costings have been detailed 'at it remains a capital efficient operation in the context of other emerging producers with an estimated cash cost of around US$1,200 per oz expected for the remainder of 2022.'
The production target was always going to decrease following the news yesterday and global supply issues. The management team have been quick in identifying issues and putting in place solutiions. Recovery in excess of 60% and like to be around 82%.
Of course if you feel the management team is shambolic then it's time to move on. I actually think they are transitioning well from developer to producer considering hurdles encountered.
it's a gold mine and 1% stolen is a small amount taking into account how much is produced. I expect not viable to shop out more often. Security is the key element here. New mine so understand why security may not have been tight as it should have been. lots of challenges encountered in past year which have all been overcome. This will be no different.
On a personal note at least my investment still looks good...phew!