Member Info for 1nspectorGadget

Damn, I should've waited a couple of days to average down instead of when it dropped under 16p! Oh well, here for the long term I suppose...

Drifting, drifting away... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0a5WyAjL1MM

I'm an infrequent poster on these forums and yet to post on Darktrace. However Darktrace has been on my watchlist recently and it was what I judged as the misleading telegraph article in fact that actually made me buy a modest holding in this share yesterday. As had been pointed out, no publicly disclosable short positions existed in Darktrace, and ShadowFall's disclosable shorts can easily be seen https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/shadowfall-capital-research-llp/

Therefore, for the Telegraph to claim the short position remains (as of publication, today may well be different) they must have individual information from a source and the position itself must be insignificant. I also feel vindicated on my decision by the announcement today of an increased renewal deal with the airline, especially as one of the debunked points of the short was customer traction and turnover.

From experience of another small tech share (interestingly one that William Currie Investments also invested in early), the share only really "took off" and the market re-rated the shares after a few years when they were able to scale out with the number of customers using their SAAS platform and report first EBITDA positive results. Yes there were ups and downs before that but nothing on the scale of the re-rate on profitable results.

My point being the UK market, perhaps unlike the US, seems to make moves far more on solid results than the potential, especially in tech. I am not being negative, but realistic. I am invested here, like the story being played out and can see the potential for a similar re-rate with scaling up.

The share I refer to above is Eagle Eye Solutions, I suggest you check out their 3/5 year share price chart and see if you can spot the point at which they started releasing profitable results!

Good update "EBITDA for the full year ending 30 June 2022 to be comfortably ahead of management expectations". Onwards and upwards.

@BorderBob Thanks for the thoughts on the scenario, although I am asking from the point of view of short to medium term (months) share price movement after the completion of the offer, based on potential outcome of current decisions or facts that are already known. Your scenario is quite speculative and longer term, although granted would be an option, alongside debt, for GF in the future.

It also appears you either push a devils advocate perspective, this can be useful in avoiding group think, or have an agenda based on other posts.

I would like to bring the discussion back to the short/medium time frame and discount speculation on future GF action. So any other informed thoughts on share price movement post offer?

Exactly Mr C, I will be declining their urge to accept!

In playing out what I see as the most probable scenario: 1. Mexican antitrust approves and 2. Total acceptances end up between 50-75%. Unless I'm mistaken the company could not be delisted unless acceptances are greater than 75%, so would still be publicly traded and able to hold shares in an ISA (can't if delisted). Would the 67.5p offer potentially set a base price for the share, or would it realistically not really budge from there? Thoughts?

@Jam2morrow, my broker was the same, stating the 9th though not a specific time, assumed close of business. I did think to go back to them and ask about the time table suspension, but it wouldn't affect my decision of NOT accepting the offer!

IMHO I totally agree with Mr C. The only reasonable favorable outcome for PIs, with the current level of GF holding, is to stop GF getting a majority and hopefully then inducing a higher offer.

Also IMO it comes back to the failure and withdrawal by management of the phase 2 fundraising in July 2018, at a higher price than the current offer! If they had gone through with this we'd be in a much stronger position today. https://www.ft.com/content/77b80da8-8b31-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

The board's mismanagement has failed it's shareholders!

Thanks @Johnpwh So if you don't accept and the offer goes unconditional (i.e. enough holders do accept) what happens to your shares? They are bought by Ganfeng anyway, or you're left with shares in an unlisted company?

I returned a letter from the corporate actions department of my broker instructing I wanted to vote against the offer. They replied telling me the Shareholder meeting took place on the 24th September therefore I can no longer vote against the offer. However they have noted I do not wish to accept the offer?! This makes no sense to me can somebody explain?!?!

Interesting, where have they publicised this?

This is how a strong board react to an undervalued offer: https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202106/morrison-rejects-takeover-bid

I would have liked ours to do the same

I think this may be a longer term hold than some were expecting/hoping, but I still like the story.

Business is growing, and from the new contract figures at a faster rate than previous FY, although this should certainly be expected with the increased sales and marketing expenditure, so we can view that plan as working, albeit without knowing the size of respective contracts.

A larger loss than 2019, with the RTO expenses and Share based payment expense, will be interesting to see how close breakeven is in 2021 FY results. I hold another AIM saas company which also struggled with the SP until it had a large rerating on EBITDA positive results, so in line with previous experience I believe patience in a good growth story with a scalable business model can win out with well run AIM companies.

Fake online pharmaceuticals is certainly an area where they can have (and possibly already are having) a big and positive impact: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-57358556

AIM Rule 19 requires that audited accounts are prepared within six months of the year end. (excluding temporary covid relief). In the RNS Trading Update of 11/02/2021 the year end date is referred to as 31 December 2020, therefore they won't be classed as delayed until after 30th June.

The trading update already gives some unaudited top line figures for the year end, however I like many other holders I'm sure will be interested in progress year to date and the growth plans referred to in the same update as being "expected" in May.

Obviously not

Very thorough review Scooby. I have to agree regarding your cash burn point, I was probably being too optimistic at this stage!

However, the longer we await any results (or notice on the firm date of results), the longer we have for this to drift and more ground to make up.

Agree bots, just had to make another buy on the latest dip, that's it for me now. All positive since RTO, Bristol Meyers new customer, crypto player contract extensions plus other non-named new business. Probably won't be looking for positive EBITDA, but high percentage (pushing 100) figures on revenue growth, (ARR) and hopefully a slow enough cash burn rate to paint a path to positive earnings.

Made another purchase on this morning's drop, building a position before results in May