Member Info for 190945

Working on ii. GLA

Thanks EEA for that comprehensive article. How are Zen going to keep paying for their top notch legal team ? Will we need another placing ? GLA

Just bought on ii. They'll just be ASX'd later so good drop to buy on (IMO).

3putt. The reason that the sp is so low is that it's so difficult to get the money from arb awards. If getting it was a hole in one the sp would be 3/5 times what it is now. GLA

I think that 0.55 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement so I'm not surprised to see the current levels. Yesterday's highs might take a bit of breaking through. GLA

On May 1st EML announced it is bringing a case for full compensation for the project which it had internally valued at $2.2B.

Does this not mean that the SOC will be the same or similar figure ? GLA

Thanks again Stock for that info. The point I was making was how one might start or continue buying into the shares of an arbitration case whose outcome is of course unknown. Full or high percentage payouts do occur but I find that thinking in terms of a one third payout on some level of success to be a more comfortable and realistic approach to whether I start or continue investing at the current levels.

You mention a Venezuelan case. I bought into Rusoro (TSXV:RML) in 2012 at 2c when the claim was for $3B , a staggering 300+ times the then mcap. The final award was $1B and RML (now $1 Can) hopes to collect it via the sale of Citgo later this year, 13 years on !

MoW. One never assess the investment odds on the full claim being paid in the event of successful litigation. A rule of thumb would be about 1/3rd of the claim by the time expenses and/or some negotiated settlement is reached. ie $167m.

Thanks Stock for your useful input. I hold shares in 11 arb cases including ZEN although only a few left after some good trades earlier this year. Bought a few more yesterday and today. I tend to base my numbers on claim size versus mcap. With EML for example the $2,2B claim is 69x the current £23.5m mcap at 1.9p and PAT's $1.58B claim is 35x at 13p. Now with ZEN the $503m claim is 'only' 20x the mcap of £19m. More if you add the interest of course and they do have other strings to their bow. So GLA.

Hi All. Well the dust from the excitement of the last couple of weeks and Monday's 'good' news seems to have settled. We now have what looks like a 50% Fibonacci retracement to the 13p area. I suspect that many shorter termers were hoping against the odds for a settlement (could still happen) and baled out with a reasonable profit. I feel we'll stabilise around these levels until any significant news. At 13p the mcap is $42m making the $1.58B claim 37x that. EML has also fallen a bit making its claim 73x the current 1.75 sp which looks good odds to me. DYOR and GLA.

Morning All. Tomorrow is now today. $1.5B was my ballpark figure for the claim. At £1.58B it's 28x the current mcap. Very good odds I would think given the strength of the case. GLA

Yes Rider, that's me. And thanks Gallmat for all your input . Very helpful. I'm happy to share my notes on the other 11 arb cases I hold but don't know how to do this. Let me know. Good to see your name Caterham 7 as I had a Lotus 7 in 1963 so I'm getting into the Buffet league. GLA.

Thanks Rider for your kind comments on the RML bb on Stockhouse. I can't get in there currently for tech reasons. Yes, PAT was my largest holding at 6.25p so now it certainly is ! I have shares in 12 arb cases. I could send you my recent notes (on word) on them if I knew how to do that. The comparison between PAT and EML is quite interesting especially with EML's claim being announced. Both I feel have strong cases based on the desire of the respective governments to acquire the projects when they started to see the huge value in them and both supported by very strong litigation teams. At today's sp's , EML's claim is 58x the mcap while a $1.5B claim by PAT would be 27x. PAT is further along the road, of course. GLA Am.

The $2.2B claim makes it app. 70 times the mcap. Good odds with BSF at the legal helm. GLA.

Rider. You're quite right to furnish info on other arbitration stocks. It's a very esoteric area of investment so those that have one or two are usually interested in others so keep it up and thanks again for your posts.

I hold RML, IDA, EML, PAT, MON,CMD (ASX) v.spec, and dipped my toe in the water with SVB. Thanks for that. Will look at ZEN and EQX.

I lost fortunes on OXS and CHL and have made it back with RML. Hey Ho.

Thanks Rider, that's very useful. I know most on your list but is EQX Equinox Gold (TSE:EQX) ? I see nothing in their news regarding an arbitration claim ?

I have been in RML in varying amounts since 2012 when it started. I suspect Trump will scupper the Citgo sale to get concessions from VZ.

GLA

Thanks Gall for reminding me about Montero. One aspect is that the claim of US$90m is 7.5 times MON's mcap at US$12m. A claim by PAT for $750m would be 57 times our mcap which of course would be good odds, but 7.5 times is a bit on the low side. Yes, MON is further on than we are and Tanz have lost similar cases to Indiana (ASX:IDA) and Winshear. Worth keeping a lookat but I'm not rushing to buy yet. An arbitration pre hearing took place on 3.11.23.

GLA

Thanks Gall for the Chorzow case also written up on Wiki. In theory full payment should be given but in practice one can reckon on one third in the event of success, As Yogi Berra famously said 'In theory, practice and theory are the same but in practice they're not'.

Rusoro for instance, whose claim against VZ goes back 12 years were awarded $1b 5 years ago from a $3b claim. (this should finally be settled by the US courts by the end of this year). Jut shows how long things can take. India of course isn't VZ. GLA

The rns of July 26th states that the arbitral tribunal must be constituted within 2 months of delivery of the NoA. Does this require any definitive response by the GOI or can they drag it out alap ? Can we assume that the level of the claim won't be announced until GOI does make some kind of response ? Thoughts ?

Hi All But will the bidders be put off by the fact that there is an impending fully funded ICSID case against the GOI re Bhukia. If so, would it not tempt to the GOI to go for a 'small' prior settlement ?