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I was expecting £20 tbh MT... as that would be minimum fair value anyway. More if they landed a decent acquisition as they have done now, and it looks like a beast of a deal.
There was that nagging 'why is it so undervalued' feeling which is why I didn't go in much bigger at my 560 entry but as time went by it just become more and more a no brainer and nobody was really able to pin anything negative on it, which is a real rarity in itself.
I added a few more on the last notable dip at 609 (caught bang on the low) before breakout (640) and and since then really wanted to load up but made the mistake of waiting for a pullback that never came... I eventually resigned to taking a few at 820 just this weekend only to wake up to the deal and suspension this morning. I have 2k shares in SIPP so grateful of the last top up... not having enough is a nice problem to have.
No idea when or how high it will open... My guess is 2-3 months and could be around £12 but I'm hoping Macquarie may still be selling and will have orders in the pipe so they may just open it lower.
for sure, 50p a couple of years ago would've been great but would also have been more speculative so less likely to go big and simply hold. More recently it's been a real no brainer given production, cash and likleyhood of an acquisition ... and continued to be a rare opportunity with Macquaire selling down since the tender and keeping the rise in check.
a post on the BB...
So once TAP and RTHM the combined company
will have had 2018 earnings of roughly $700m revenue and $100m Ebitda. This has been announced by Taptica management and also fits consensus figures for both companies. The market cap for both companies is $169m and $176m respectively. So on today's stock prices the combined company should have a market cap of c. $345m.
So based on those figures, I have done some comparisons with three other publicly listed ad-tech companies, The Trade Desk (TTD), Criteo (CRTO) and S4 Capital (SFOR). The first two on NASDAQ, the last on AIM. CRTO have just released their 2018 results this week, TTD are due to release on 21/2 so figures are estimates, SFOR figures are those quoted by their CEO in a recent interview based on current trading. Figures are in USD. Market Cap based on today's stock prices. TTD do not seem to report EBITDA figures as far as I can tell.
Market Cap/Revenue
TTD 6,635m/465m = 14.3
SFOR 614m/150m = 4.1
CRTO 1,848m/2297m = 0.8
TAP/RTHM 345m/700m = 0.49
Market Cap/EBITDA
SFOR 614m/30m = 20.5
CRTO 1,848m/321m = 5.75
TAP/RTHM 345m/100m = 3.45
So whilst this is slightly simplistic, it shows how undervalued TAP/RTHM are at today's share prices compared with its rivals.
Once combined I think on current performance of the two companies, £3.50 - £4 will be a realistic valuation. I am hoping that the buyback which is due to start as soon as the deal is completed, will quickly push the SP over £3 .
65p would've worked out well on the way to 400+
Not sure about Israeli links... came at me from few different angles today so thought it worth having a look. Looks good value where it is and a deal going through with RTHM with results and a buyback coming up along with linked instis apparently accumulating both in the run up is about as far as I got. Will look some more.