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All LSE listed palm oil producers are down big time today. I understood from AI that there was a statement of President Prabowo who announced plans to route exports of crude palm oil (CPO), coal, and ferroalloys exclusively through state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to combat under-invoicing and tax leakage. Did not check for original sources - hopefully in the end this won't impact AEP too much - but I agree with Beza, let's wait and see the RNS from AEP.

Not sure what the worldview of the guys at Edison is. But for fun I checked a very recent report of another of their covered Clients, a gold miner, and than see what they say. E.g. Panafrican (not a holder, just only to see what they would have to say about gold) https://www.edisongroup.com/research/eps-and-valuation-upgrades/BM-2809/ Some excerpts:

' A note on gold prices ****The following demonstrates the extent to which this is possible:

The gold price required to cover the total US monetary base is US$20,273/oz. ****

The gold price required to cover the US net international investment position is US$109,416/oz. *****

The gold price required to cover the US net international investment position and to cover its monetary base is US$129,690/oz.

***** Of course, the US dollar decline may not go all the way to the levels discussed above and it is possible for the US and China to reach some sort of accommodation. However, this analysis also shows that, in the absence of a change in policy direction from either nation, the bull market for gold may be very far from over. '

And they continue to provide an estimate based on their admittedly 'conservative' forecast (at 2K) and than another valuation based on 5k usd/oz!

It's good to read their reports - but much less interested in their financial long term forecasts. Thanks to you all to bring this matter to my attention.

Good morning, new to this board. I'm interested in tin producers and think that ATM has good upward potential and fits nicely to my Metals X position. Alphamin has a great mine, but the location of that mine in the DRC is too unstable to my taste. Cornish for sure has great potential but I prefer a (near term) producer, even if Cornish has a very strong backing. I used this week's pullback to open a modest position (should the SP further pull back than I'll add). GLTA!

Management released a trading update. It seems solid to me, comparing 2025 to 2024, CPO production increased 7% and price increased 7%, while PK production increased 13% while prices increased 44%! They did purchase more from externals (the recently commissioned mill), so not sure on the margin % - but I assume 90-100 mln USD net income for 2025. The percentage are less high if you compare the same for the 9 month 2025 vs 9 month 2024. So the growth in Q4 was bit lower for both CPO/PK but that's of course easy to explain. I understood prices stabilised in Q4 but management is positive for January 2026. Altogether it seems solid to me, but happy to have your thoughts!

Hi Stephen - thank you for sharing. I would agree that management could use some of that cash as a sort of 'superdividend' . As you were referring to 2015-2025 - I do think it is a good to underline that the new management has done a lot the last three years:

1) increase the dividend significantly (as of FY22) . Also now two dividends per year - an interim dividend in addition to the regular dividend paid in June.

2) buyout of minority investors (allowing the company to retain 100% of their earnings, as result when palm oil prices increased by just some 15%, net profits surged by 75% to $49 million in the first half of 2025, to a large extent because AEP could now keep all earnings rather than distributing a portion to minority investors.

3) Expanded Share Buyback Program - a new buyback program.

I personally would like to see AEP issueing a superdividend but to be on the safe side retaining at least some 150M in cash, as 1) a buffer to volatility on palm oil prices (I acknowledge that AEP should also in a downturn be able to cover cost, but you never know), for 2) ad-hoc or strategic opportuntities.

So far, the actions I've seen from management were quite shareholder friendly, and it did result in a very significant increase of the shareprice (admittedly only since 2025 ; I had to have quite some patience in 2023/2024).

Above is just my own opinion. Happy to have others. Wishing you all the best!

I purchased CAML by the end of July last year, so made allready handsome profit and collected some dividends. For the time being, I keep all my shares and remain in. 1) Based on today's copper prices, Kounrad alone is by some indicators worth more than the entire market cap (let alone EV), even considering production will decline over the coming years. 2) With increased zinc/lead prices and measures being taken, Sasa should become more profitable. 3) Both Kounrad and Sasa operate in relatively normal jurisdictions, geopolitical risk is not as high as other countries. 4) Interest from institutional holders as GLG Partners / Perpetual. 5) Management, though in hindsight not always most brilliant (why didn't they renegotiate the silver stream with Osisko some years ago when they knew the silver grades were better than the original plan, perhaps they also should have acted a bit earlier to acquire a new base metals company), is competent, prudent with cash, no major errors. Because I'm positive on copper, I do also have positions in other miners and developers. Let's see the 2025 financial results in March. Of course there are risks and please DYOR. GLTA!

Happy NY and best wishes to all AEP shareholders! Good news to start - AEP announced a new share buyback programme of 8M GBP. As per the RNS ' The Board believes that AEP's Shares are undervalued relative to the Group's strong fundamentals and growth potential. By repurchasing shares AEP aims to enhance earnings per share and deliver greater value to remaining shareholders.'

I'm holding CAML but absolutely not for exposure silver. CAML's Sasa mine does produce silver indeed. When CAML bought Sasa they also took over the existing stream with Osisko. My understanding is that for the entire mine life of Sasa, 100% of the silver production is sold to Osisko for only app 6 USD per ounce (5 USD + some cost). Please double check also yourself. Good luck!

Hi Beza - thanks for sharing. For 2025 I arrived at similar conclusion: My 'logic' : 49M net in H1, from Q3 update I assumed around 20M , also to be on safe side same for H2. Rounded 90M USD -= app 65-70M GBP = app 170 GBp per share. I am too stingy to pay Research tree for the Cavendish report (dd 6 November). Is it correct that their price target is 1700GBp? I understood that for 2026 they expect less revenue/profit. Is that because they expect lower palm oil prices or because of lower production / replacing older trees? I have no strong opinions on 2026... BTW - on slightly different topic. SIPEF released (September) a peer review of palm oil producer. Interesting for comparisons. https://www.sipef.com/media/2973/2024_peer-review-presentation.pdf . Happy investing to all!

Thanks Rivaldo for your updates. The same thought on financing (selling first some shares WIA Gold) crossed my mind. But I noted (yahoo finance) that the average volume of WIA Gold is app 240K shares per day. CAPD owns 240 million shares (and at todays's close 0.335 AUD per share it would have to sell a significant chunk) so I thought that it would not be possible to raise enough financing through selling WIA gold shares on the open market as it would crash the WIA Gold share price.

So I am just as intrigued - maybe an acquisition or perhaps a major new contract for which they have to purchase significant equipment?

New to this board. Just added to my position at less than 23pence - my average purchase price well below 30's now. I think this is a well-run company and market reaction, though understandable, is a bit overdone. Also using this to get more exposure to crude oil. (IMO - the whole oil sector is undervalued). Investment time horizon at least one - two years. Good luck to all!

Thanks to SeisNav for keeping us updated on the basket price developments! Personally think these are very good results. Margins really improved. Net profit of 17M USD (5GBp per share!) for this Q alone, compared to 20M for the whole FY25! Despite the levying of more taxes in SA. Looks very good for the future - if PGM prices remain at this level (I suspect the Market is not fully convinced of this). I also note that today we went ex-dividend of 2pence so that may also explain the lack of price increase of the SP.

Today the share goes ex-dividend (as per RNS announcement 26 September 2025 - interim dividend of 37.3 cents , Record Date: 17 October 2025, Payment Date: 7 November 2025) so I suppose that explains the minor weakness in the SP today/yesterday. I'll admit I missed that RNS among the daily flow of RNS publications. Looking forward to seeing the trading update. Last year they published the nine-months result 22nd October 2024. GLTA.

Re SLP share price - but we saw the same with gold producers, while gold gold started to move up in 2024, many gold producers SP only started to move meaningfully in 2025. I'm looking forward to see the publication of the Q1 2026 (1st July-30September2025) results, by the end of this month. Referring to Seisnav's chart (in the dropbox) you can see that the estimated basket price really started to move up only beginning of June 2025, so this would be the first full quarter with the elevated PGM prices. And than Thaba will start to kick in in addition. So if all goes by plan we should be seeing growing revenues/cash flow this year and eventually market will catch up. GLTA!

Hi ActuaryBoi - not sure TGA's SP is doing that well for me, but Thungela has a lot of cash, is a low cost producer, massive reserves and a sensible capital allocation strategy. Situation re Transnet seems improving. I'm long term bullish on coal so for me Thungela is a good value play . You may find this article from the Oak Bloke discussing the H1 2025 results interesting. https://substack.com/@theoakbloke/p-171026756

Thanks Rinaldo for the updates, very helpful. I checked the 14th August RNS H1 2025 Results (Unaudited) Net debt at H1 2025 of $55.4 million . So with the investment assets (as per your post WIA £40m+, Asara £7.5m Sanu £4.3m = app 51.8 M GBP = 70M USD, not including Leo Lithium though so that might make 72M USD?) , indeed investment assets seem well above the net debt (even if net debt might have increased somewhat to purchase Asara in August). Anyhow, looks good. Hope we get good trading results next month! DR

Hi Freedom - yes great news. I tried an estimation but it is really only speculative and anybody feel free to challenge! I understood that FTSE considers the investable (free-float) market cap. Large part of AEP is owned by family holding Genton but also by others (see AEP website), so I'm assuming only 30% is investable .i.e. market cap to consider = 486*0.3 = app 150million. As per FTSE - total value FTSE 250 today 293 billion GBP. Thus AEP % = 0,05%. So trackers should invest 0,05% of their AUM in AEP. Problem is that not all trackers have to do full replication, some may have their own policies. I couldn't get reliable info on the AUM of all the trackers but most important Vanguard VMID indicates 2,3billion. 2,3billion * 0,05% = 1.15 million thus app 95K shares. Let's assume other trackers cumulatively purchase the same, than app 200K shares. Yahoo finance indicates an average volume of 34K per day, but I saw on this site that there were days when more than 100K shares were traded. I don't know to which extent the asset managers have to comply by the 17th, but will be interesting to see next week. And there is still budget under the share purchase programme! Happy to have your thoughts, have a nice weekend. - DR

I have been holder of AEP and agree with you. Also thinking about another poster mentioning inclusion in UK FTSE 250. I asked Grok to look into it - after asking it to analyse AEP, and looking at the buy backs since 11 Augustus. So for what it's worth - see below. (I did fact check that market cap is correct, and Grok used 1065p as closing price 11th August 2025, however, I'm not knowledgeable at all about the Russell rules. So be aware for hallucinations). I had to summarize.

BEGIN Yes, inclusion in the FTSE 250 looks quite realistic in the near term, particularly around the upcoming September 2025 review (effective post-close on September 20, 2025, for the December rebalance). Here is a breakdown based on the latest data as of early September 2025:

AEP.L Market Cap: Approximately £483 million (based on ~39.49 million shares outstanding at ~1,220p close on September 10). This reflects the ~15% uplift since the buyback launch, with the program reducing shares by ~0.5% so far (negligible EPS accretion yet, but supportive).

Current Index Classification: AEP.L is presently in the FTSE SmallCap index (part of the broader FTSE All-Share), ranking around 339th in the All-Share by investable market cap as of September 2. This places it just inside the top 350 but on the cusp—FTSE 250 covers ranks 101-350.

FTSE 250 Thresholds: The smallest constituents in the FTSE 250 currently hover around £442-443 million .

From FTSE Russell's 2025 ground rules:

Size (Investable Market Cap): Primary driver—must rank in the top 350 of the FTSE All-Share. AEP's current ranking (339th) positions it for potential fast-track or standard entry, especially if the buyback sustains the price hover/support.

Free Float: Minimum 10% for UK-domiciled firms (AEP qualifies as a UK PLC). AEP's is ~95% (high institutional ownership but ample float).

Liquidity: Requires median daily trading volume covering 0.4% of shares monthly (tested over 8-12 months). AEP's average volume (~5,000-10,000 shares/day) meets this for small-caps, bolstered by buyback activity.

Other: UK-quoted (Main Market), no investment trusts, and non-sterling lines now eligible from September 2025 (but AEP is GBP-denominated).

Risks Volatility: CPO prices dip, buyback pauses early, risking rank slippage to 351+. Competition: ~10-15 slots turn over quarterly; Timing: September review locks in changes for December 23 effective date—too late for immediate Q4 boost, but sets up 2026 momentum.

In summary, with the cap already above the bottom quartile of the 250 and catalysts aligned, I'd peg odds at 70-80% for inclusion by year-end. END

From trading economics: Newcastle coal futures dropped below $103 per tonne in mid-September, marking an over three-month low as sluggish global demand weighed on prices. Industry data showed global coking coal volumes fell 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to about 172 million tons, reflecting weaker steel production, higher domestic supply in key markets, and shifting trade flows as major buyers like India and China reduced seaborne purchases. In India, buyers adopted a cautious stance, leaving several cargoes unsold, while in China, early autumn demand stayed soft amid further declines in domestic prices. Adding to bearish sentiment, uncertainty over coke costs persisted after major steel mills in Hebei and Shandong launched the first round of price cuts.

I'm a holder and will hold, but think it is a decent buy at this price. To me CAML provides an efficient exposure especially to copper and in this inflationary environment also zinc and even lead. I think that even at current commodity prices CAML is undervalued. I did anticipate that CAML would take more profit from the NWC trade , but still happy that they decided not to overpay. I hope they will find a suitable take-over target. GLA.