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I don't think anyone has picked up on a point from the recent Annual Report from PRD - Top of page 27, a map titled ' Gas infrastructure map Northern Morocco' which shows a dotted line NE to the coast (Port Nador) from Guercif with the nomenclature 'Condensate Export pipeline to coast 5km from Magreb pipeline Gas-to-Power' - first time I've noticed this as an 'Export' pipeline/facility, Port Nador previously assumed to be for Import of LNG but now mentioned for Export of condensates from Guercif! Interesting!

Thanks Seedmix, the podcast is a great explaner of the new collaboration between Quadrise, MSC and Cargill and also explores BoB - Blend on Board, well worth the listen - recommended!

The main objective for this well, the Hunton Limestone ("Hunton") interval, was encountered at 4,168 feet and is confirmed to be hydrocarbon-bearing and appears highly porous and permeable.

I'm liking these results and the increase now and for the final Dividend next August.

Sailing along a 'Sea of Green' and wishing Fair Winds and Calm Seas to all genuine LTH's - Just use the Filter Button!

Hotfinance 14 - Go to 3:36:12 in the 31st July 2024 Hearing - "but we hope to produce 100 barrels crude, which we hope to do in the next. within the next month, that gets us our next tranche of money..."

Not so long to wait....

Independent Technical Report (ITR)

Project: Cory Moruga block and resource

potential of the Snowcap Discovery, Trinidad

Continued...

Where an uncertainty-based philosophy has been applied (whether done deterministically or probabilistically), resource uncertainty categories can be used to relate the estimates of uncertainty over the life of an accumulation. Where deterministic methods are used, the degree of confidence associated with the low, best, and high estimates should be consistent with the technical criteria for the equivalent category of reserves. For example, if an accumulation is currently not commercial
solely because of the lack of a market, then, where a market is subsequently developed and in the absence of any new technical data, the proved reserve estimate would be expected to approximate the previous low estimate. Similarly, where probabilistic methods are used, the probabilities associated with the low, best, and high case scenarios should be consistent with those values appropriate for the equivalent category of reserves. Thus, there should be at least a 90% probability that the estimated potentially recoverable quantity (from a technical standpoint) will equal or exceed the low estimate, on the assumption that development did proceed. Equivalent probability values of 50% and 10% should be used for the best and high estimates respectively. These resource uncertainty categories of Low Estimate, Best Estimate, and High Estimate may be related to the reserve categories as shown in Figure 2.3.

See Table 2.3 Page 20 - https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Guidelines-Evaluation-Reserves-Resources-2001.pdf

Uncertainty-Based Philosophy
(Source - https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Guidelines-Evaluation-Reserves-Resources-2001.pdf )

The probabilistic evaluation method is, by its very nature, an uncertainty-based approach. However,it can be (and is) also applied using deterministic methods; in such cases, a more appropriate term is the scenario approach because it is based on three specific scenarios for the accumulation rather than on a single deterministic estimate. Project maturity is handled completely separately (see Section 2.6). In this approach, the objective is, first, to make a “best estimate” of the recoverable volume, which represents the estimate considered to be the closest to the quantity that actually will be recovered from the accumulation. Next, an estimate of an upside and a downside case of recoverable volumes is made, which provides a measure of the range of uncertainty in the best estimate. With the scenario approach, therefore, three different scenarios are established for the accumulation that are consistent with the Proved category (downside case), the Proved plus Probable category (the best estimate), and the Proved plus Probable plus Possible category (upside case). Each scenario is chosen to represent a realistic combination of parameters, consistent with the relevant definitions and taking into account potential dependencies between parameters. Thus, the downside case is not simply a matter of combining the low estimate of every input parameter; if two parameters are unlikely to occur together, that must be taken into account (dependencies are discussed further in Chapter 4). The scenarios may incorporate both technical and commercial uncertainty.

This approach is directly comparable to the probabilistic method. However, instead of trying to estimate the complete range of possible outcomes (which includes making assumptions with regard to probability distributions and levels of dependency/correlation), the required three reserve values are estimated by selecting three representative scenarios. Although not as mathematically rigorous as the probabilistic method, this approach has the advantage that each assumption can be identified specifically (e.g., this particular value of average porosity was used for the proved scenario); hence,reserve auditing is facilitated. Perhaps the most important aspect in this regard is the relationship between the development plan (and hence recovery factor) and the geological model (and hence the petroleum-initially-in-place). This potential dependency is frequently overlooked when applying the probabilistic method and may be easier to accommodate with the scenario approach.
Continued Part 2