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I can't speak for others on here but I hope Kod isn't taken over as having a 39% stake in Bougouni will be a great cash cow but look it at from Hainan's perspective, they will want the whole cake and a simpler ownership structure. Suay Chin will probably prefer an early exit as they no longer have the off-take agreement. Even from Bernard's perspective being a geologist he wold probably prefer to go exploring for another project as once Bougouni is constructed and producing his work would have been done unless he wants to drill more in order to increase the resource into an even bigger monster. Bernard gave it away in the update that it was clear that the Malian government would want the 20% stake. I would say that Hainan would want 80% but that's just my opinion.
I personally think that Hainan would offer a buyout for Kod as they and Suay Chin wouldn't be interested in being the largest shareholders in a company with a lot of cash and 5 gold projects. Hainan have 17% and Suay Chin have 14%. It's an exit strategy that would have been discussed when the off-take agreement was negotiated no doubt.
A buyout does seem a dead cert. Suay Chin must realise this but I wonder what they would be happy with and the time frame involved. It will certainly be interesting over the next few months. As far as Hainan are concerned you would think that they would want to pounce asap especially considering they now have the spod off-take.
There is a possibility that the lithium price could go back to those levels in a few years. I would be surprised by the time Bougouni is in production if spod isn't over $1800 and it will be very profitable at these levels.
I maintain though an offer will come before Bougouni is in production. I just hope it's a sensible offer.
There is no way that Moulding would sell for 140 considering at that price it would still be at a 50% discount to its global peers. I'm sure Moulding believes that he can grow Ingenuity's sales to over £1.2 Bn in the coming years which is quite plausible and then we could see the price have a big upgrade. This will surge very quickly when market conditions improve. It's just a matter of being patient in the meantime.
What do holders here think would be a good price for KOD's share of Bougouni? After the last resource update on the 14th November KOD's broker upgraded the target price to 1.85p. They are now targeting 50mt (circa 57% higher) and you can bet your bottom dollar it will go well over this figure considering the vast expanse of area to explore. Given this information 1.5p would be very cheap for Hainan to pick up KOD's stake. I would have thought that a minimum of 2.5p but what are the odds on the share price being manipulated.
Laverda
There is a difference between panicking and being disappointed. I personally believe Kod is playing into the hands of Hainan. I would have just liked us to be available to have been able to sell the spod to the highest bidder rather than solely to our major shareholder.
Surely there is nothing wrong in wanting a bit more news on the gold front especially considering the current gold price. I was of the understanding due to the RNS that the funds for Kod from the share placement, ie the $17m were to be used for advancing the gold portfolio. I want to see some activity on this front, there is nothing wrong in that.
The share price is trading where it was a few years ago prior to financing and the licence agreement. Gold has risen and although the price of spod has fallen it looks as though it has bottomed and is on the up again. Surely the share price would be cheap at double or triple of today's price considering all the progress.
Hainan are definitely in the driving seat, after all they are the largest shareholder in Kod with 17%. My argument is that KOD should be able to sell the spod to the highest bidder not solely to Hainan as Kod shareholders have effectively stumped up 49% of the $14m for Hainan's benefit. There was no mention of the off-take agreement before being a problem as Suay Chin had rights of first refusal. Why would that have been a problem if they were going to pay the market rate? I was under the assumption that Hainan invested in Kod for developing Bougouni. Where is the information that they were going to take all of the spod. This is what we were originally told, 'Funds from the KMUK Funding Transaction will be available to KMUK to, amongst other things, undertake further exploration activities to seek to further extend the Bougouni mine resource, develop other lithium pegmatite veins within the project area and assess opportunities for additional projects.'. Nothing about using $14m for buying back the off-take agreement.
So I take it that most holders here are happy that there has been virtually no progress with respect to the gold portfolio!! Did you forget this, ' the US$17.75 million raised from the Subscription will be used to advance the Company's portfolio of gold exploration assets in Mali and Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the assessment of new exploration and development opportunities in West Africa.'. Gold is at an all time high now...
Surely if you are a KOD shareholder you want us to be in the best negotiating position, personally I feel our hand has been weakened.
In all reality though Kod are being controlled by Hainan after all its in their interest to secure 100% of the off-take. Surely it's in Kod's interest to sell to the highest bidder and that may not necessarily mean Hainan yet Kod shareholders have stumped up 49% of the $14m for the privilege.
Although it was great to hear Bougouni progressing well and scheduled to be on time and budget but it was disappointing to see no major inroads with regards to the gold projects. Clearly Hainan are focussed on Bougouni and it's not in their interest at this moment in time. Personally with gold at circa $2200 I think they should have been drilling and proving up resources as I was under the impression that the $17m raised from the share placement was intended for this purpose.
I have been saying it for ages that Hainan will buy out Kod and its just a matter of time. I think it could happen before the licence transfer and if not no doubt before production. How much is the question. I would like to think 1.5p as a starting offer especially as Bernard thinks that paying $14m was a cheap price for the off-take agreement and his assumption that spod will be averaging around $2000 when production commences. It's a game of chess at the end of the day and we are just waiting for Hainan to get all of their duck lined up. They have just got one of the biggest by securing 100% of the off-take but what will they want to secure next, the licence agreement or 100% of the mine, well 80% if you include the Malian government stake.
It's just a matter of time to wait for the recommended offer RNS.
There is so much more info to come in the next few months especially regarding the resource increase. It can't be too long with regards to some news on the gold front as the drill results can't be too far off, perhaps Bernard will give us an indication tomorrow on the timescale.
The RNS was focused on the development which is all going to plan and budget. They really do seem to be determined to start producing this year. The sell off since has been perplexing just like it was after the 15th November RNS. If Bernard mentions the resource size tomorrow those that sold will regret it.
It seems as though the Hainan and Kodal team have integrated really well. Construction timeline and budget is still on track. Bernard keeps on ticking the boxes in a steady and professional way. Completion doesn't seem far away as we are nearly in April.
I don't think anybody was really expecting fireworks but it seems like the ship is turning in time for an improving economy with reduced interest rates etc. Asos warrants a much higher mkt cap of £400m that's for sure.
That would be great if they have proven up another 15m tonnes already Lav. If Bernard came out with news like that this week then I would be disappointed if we didn't break previous highs.
I think the same will happen here as in another of my holdings, Rolls Royce. They had the likes of JPM slating the company and giving ridiculous share price targets of 60 just over a year ago. They currently advise buying with a 475 target. I'm sure things will come good here but it's just a matter of being patient.