JP Morgan predicts $120 or $185 per barrel4 Mar 2022 15:52
JPMorgan then repeats what Goldman said over the weekend, arguing that given the supply shock and barring a breakthrough in peace negotiations, an immediate demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the market in the short term.
In practical terms, this translates into two cases for the future of oil prices: an ugly, painful case which however does not crash the global economy, and a potentially devastating, global recession (if not depression) inducing one. This is how JPM lays them out:
In the first scenario, JPM admits that so large is the immediate supply shock the bank believes prices need to increase to $120/bbl and stay there for months to incentivize demand destruction, assuming no immediate Iranian volumes. This could result in a 1.2 mbd hit to this year’s demand, bringing 2022 oil consumption 550 kbd below 2019 levels.
The far scarier scenario is one where disruption to Russian volumes lasts throughout the year. In that case, Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl, likely leading to a massive 3 mbd drop in the global oil demand. Key to this significant upside is the assumption that even if shale production responds to the price signal, it cannot grow by more than 1.4 mbd this year given labor...
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