UK GAS-Prices fall on oversupply, milder weather forecasts

Nov 20 (Reuters) - British gas prices across the curve
declined on Friday morning amid plentiful supply and milder
weather forecasts.

* The day-ahead contract was down 0.25 pence to
35.25
pence per therm at 0908 GMT.

* The system was over-supplied by 25 million cubic metres
(mcm),
with demand forecast at 245 mcm and flows at 270 mcm/day,
National Grid data showed.

* "The strongly oversupplied system on the opening today
should
provide an important bearish signal to the physical prices,"
said analysts at Refinitiv in a daily report.

* The oversupply stemmed from higher flows of Norwegian gas
and a
19 mcm rise in sendout of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to a
busy tanker arrival schedule, they said.

* Gas for power demand was expected 8 mcm/day higher on
Monday
amid lower wind, however, according to Refinitiv data.

* Peak wind generation is forecast at 14 gigawatts (GW) on
Friday
and 11.7 GW on Monday, out of total metered capacity of around
18 GW, Elexon data showed.

* Along the curve, December gas on the NBP fell
0.60
pence to 36.20 pence per therm.

* Temperatures in December were now forecast milder than
previously, Refinitiv's analysts said.

* Analysts at Energy Aspects said in a note they had lowered
their
UK winter demand outlook for December 2020–March 2021 to a rise
of 0.16 billion cubic metres (bcm) bcm year on year from a 0.4
bcm y/y rise previously, due to mild weather and the
re-imposition of nationwide COVID-19 lockdown measures.

* Still, Norwegian gas flows to Norway should rise by 1.2
bcm y/y
over the winter period, they added.

* The December price at the Dutch TTF hub was
0.15
euro lower at 12.80 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was up
0.18
euro at 26.53 euros a tonne.
(Reporting by Nora Buli; Editing by Mark Potter)