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UK GAS-Day-ahead up on expectations of gas re-routing to Europe

Thu, 17th Jun 2021 09:39

June 17 (Reuters) - The British wholesale gas price for
day-ahead delivery rose on Thursday as flows were expected to be
re-routed to the continent tomorrow and amid low wind output.

* The day-ahead contract rose by 0.95 pence to
68.95
pence per therm by 0836 GMT.

* "The important driver on the bullish side is the
expectation for
rerouting of Langeled flows back to the Continent when Dunkirk
maintenance fully ends tomorrow," said Marina Tsygankova, gas
analyst at Refinitiv.

* The Dunkirk terminal outage in France is expected to end
on
Friday, with more gas routed back to the continent.

* For now, however, Norwegian gas supplies through the
Langeled
pipeline rose to 43 million cubic metres (mcm) from 12 mcm/day
on Wednesday.

* Wind output is also low today but expected to rise
tomorrow.

* Low wind output typically increases demand for gas from
power
plants.

* Peak wind generation is forecast at 3.7 gigawatts (GW) on
Thursday, rising to 6.7 GW on Friday, out of total metered
capacity of around 18 GW, Elexon data showed.

* The July contract inched down by 0.35 pence
to
68.40 p/therm.

* The system was slightly over-supplied, with demand
forecast at
139.5 mcm and supply at 142.5 mcm/day, National Grid data
showed.

* Supplies from Dragon liquefied natural gas terminal have
restarted after the end of maintenance, with flows rising to
around 16 mcm/day from zero previously.

* Flows through the Barrow (North Terminal) have also
restarted,
albeit at low levels, while production capacity was reduced due
to an unplanned outage at Cygnus.

* The Dutch July contract at the TTF hub was
down
0.22 euro at 27.83 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract was down
0.48
euros at 51.86 euros a tonne.

* The UK Dec-21 carbon contract was 0.60 pounds
lower at
43.50 pounds per tonne.

* Britain’s emissions trading system includes a cost
containment
mechanism (CCM), updated monthly and to prevent price spikes
which could release more supply to the market if prices are
deemed too high.

* Britain late on Wednesday said for the CCM to be triggered
in
August the benchmark contract would need to remain on average
above 44.74 pounds within the whole of May, June and July.
(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis in Oslo, editing by Nina
Chestney)

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