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Sterling steady as UK local elections loom

Tue, 05th May 2026 11:26

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The British pound ​was broadly steady ⁠on Tuesday as traders focused ​on UK local elections on Thursday that could add to the pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, ​and ‌the standoff between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sterling was little changed ⁠at $1.3539, and a touch stronger against the euro at ⁠86.31 pence.

The fragile truce in ​the Middle East was under strain after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Gulf and wrestled for control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sterling has performed better ​than many ‌rivals during the war so far, but UK local elections could be a headwind.

"The biggest story for sterling since the start of this war has been the change in money market pricing of Bank of England interest rate hikes," Jane ​Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said.

"Before the war, the market was ‌expecting cuts and then they swung very quickly into expecting hikes and as a consequence of that, sterling has been one ‌of the better G10 performers since the start of this war."

Money markets were last pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate hikes from the BoE this year, ​with a good chance of a third. The central bank last week kept policy on hold, but left ‌the door open to rate increases.

However, Foley noted, the UK economy is facing some weakness, which could be amplified by interest rate hikes. That in turn could eventually ⁠weigh ⁠on sterling, she said, with the May 7 local elections ‌also presenting a risk factor.

Polls suggest Starmer's Labour Party will incur heavy losses in the vote, ​which could trigger ​a leadership challenge.

"If the likelihood of Starmer's resignation increases, ‌this will weigh on the pound," Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note.

Markets are concerned that a potentially more left-wing successor could put public finances at risk.

Forex Economic News Finance and Instruments

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