Marubeni sees Japan aluminium premiums at $85-$203 in 2026

TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Japanese buyers are expected to pay aluminium premiums of $85-$203 per metric ton in 2026, as higher overseas premiums reduce flows to Asia and tighten supply, trading house Marubeni Corp said on Wednesday.

Japan is a major aluminium importer in Asia and the amount it agrees to pay for primary metal shipments each quarter above the London Metal Exchange cash price sets the benchmark for the region. Sluggish demand and ample supply have pushed down Japanese premiums to $86 per ton <PREM-ALUM-JP> this quarter, compared with $228 in January-March. But in negotiations for next January-March shipments that started earlier this month, global suppliers have offered premiums of $190-$203 per ton over the benchmark price, up 121%-136% from this quarter, two sources directly involved in the talks said.

Marubeni, one of Japan's largest aluminium traders, forecast Japan premiums of $140-$203 per ton in January-March, $125-$200 in April-June and a range of $85-$175 for the rest of 2026.

IMPACT OF US TARIFFS ON PREMIUMS

"Premiums in Europe and the United States are soaring amid supply concerns and tariffs, raising fears of reduced flows to Asia and lifting Japanese spot premiums in recent weeks," said Eisuke Akasaka, general manager at Marubeni's light metals section. Spot premiums have climbed to nearly $140, he noted. Akasaka said an outage at a smelter in Iceland, expectations of the possible mothballing of South32's Mozambique aluminium smelter and front-loading ahead of a new carbon tax under the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have boosted European premiums. U.S. premiums have surged because of steep import tariffs.

Akasaka said he expected European premiums to ease in the second half of 2026 as underlying demand remains weak, which would lead to a slight decline in Japanese premiums over the same period. (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; editing by Barbara Lewis)