* U.S. equity index futures mixed, little changed
* U.S. initial jobless claims +498k vs +540k estimate
* Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.3%
* Dollar off slightly; gold up, crude falls
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.58%
May 6 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
DOES BITCOIN HAVE THE S&P 500 ON BORROWED TIME? (0900
EDT/1300 GMT)
Bitcoin's battering off its mid-April peak may present a
problem for the U.S. equity market. This because since late
2017, Bitcoin's twists and turns have led have led a number of
significant turns in the S&P 500.
Indeed, whether crypto-action is a sign of speculative
excess, or building animal spirits, Bitcoin has made its turns
ahead of SPX highs and lows over this period:
Since late 2017, five of the six worst SPX declines
(averaging 17%) came in the wake of SPX tops that occurred
roughly 1-6 weeks (average 3 weeks) after a Bitcoin high.
Meanwhile, SPX's lows in late-2018, early-2020, and
late-2020 were all formed 2 weeks after Bitcoin troughs.
As stands, since Bitcoin topped in mid-April at $64,895.22,
the SPX's high of 4,218.78 came about 2 weeks later. The
benchmark index is since only down around 1%.
That said, if Bitcoin's mid-April high remains intact, the
SPX may actually be on borrowed time.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR THURSDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300
GMT - CLICK HERE:
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)