* Oil demand growth to average 0.7 pct per year by 2035
* Recoverable oil sources enough to meet demand by 2050twice
* Gas to grow faster than oil, coal at 1.6 pct per year
* Renewables fastest-growing energy source at 7.6 pct a year
By Ron Bousso
LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Global oil demand will keepgrowing into the 2040s due to higher consumption of plasticgoods even as the electric vehicle fleet expands rapidly andtechnology revolutionises transport, BP said in itsannual Energy Outlook on Wednesday.
The forecast of sustained demand growth for the fossil fuelcomes as other oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell brace for demand to plateau by the early 2030s while countriesgradually shift to less-polluting energy.
In its industry benchmark report, BP forecasts a significantslowing of carbon emissions, which remain well in excess ofgoals set by governments to fight global warming.
The British oil and gas company also said currentrecoverable global oil supplies of around 2.6 trillion barrelsare sufficient to meet demand out to 2050 twice over.
The abundance of oil could set the stage for a long-termstruggle between low-cost producers such as U.S. shalecompanies, OPEC members in the Middle East as well as Russia andmore expensive offshore production in areas such as Brazil, theNorth Sea and Asia, BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale said.
"Low-cost producers will use their competitive advantage toincrease their share relative to higher-cost producers," Daletold reporters.
He would not provide a forecast for oil prices.
According to BP forecasts, oil demand growth over the periodis set to slow from around 1 million barrels per day to 400,000bpd by 2035, when consumption will reach around 110 million bpd.Demand is not expected to peak before the 2040s, Dale said.
Oil demand from cars will rise from around 19 million bpd in2015 to 23 million bpd in 2035, BP said. That will come amidrapid growth in the car fleet and despite improvements in engineefficiencies and an expected 100-fold expansion in the number ofelectric vehicles to 100 million over the period.
Under this scenario, electric vehicles would constitute 5 to6 percent of the global car fleet.
BP increased its forecast for the rise in electric vehiclesby 2035 from the 70 million predicted last year due to lowerbattery costs and higher efficiency standards, Dale said.
Technological shifts such as car sharing and self-drivingvehicles that increase car usage but reduce the number of carsneeded are likely to play a critical role in limiting oildemand.
"If you get a combination of a very rapid increase inelectric vehicles with a very rapid increase in these newtechnologies the numbers involved could get bigger and moresignificant," Dale said.
But while oil demand for transportation slows, the rapidgrowth of developing economies in Asia, Africa and the MiddleEast means consumption of plastics and fabrics manufacturedusing oil-based feedstock, will sustain demand growth.
"Key growth isn't to power transportation ... rather oil asan input into other products, particularly into petrochemicalsand fabrics," Dale said.
BP revised down its forecast for total energy demand into2035 by almost 1 percent relative to last year, primarily due toa revision of China's coal demand due to slower growthprospects.
BP forecasts growth in carbon emissions to slowsignificantly over the next 20 years from 2.1 percent per yearto 0.6 percent, the slowest rate since 1965. Emissions areprojected to rise 13 percent by 2035.
Renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar power areexpected to quadruple, with non-fossil fuels providing half ofthe increase in energy consumption. Gas, seen as a lesspolluting fossil fuel in the transition to cleaner energy, willgrow faster than oil and coal at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.
(Reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Dale Hudson)
BP (BP.)
