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Dutch benchmark rebounds but storage refill caps gains

Tue, 21st Mar 2023 10:28

March 21 (Reuters) - Europe's benchmark gas contract rose marginally on Tuesday morning from a 19-month low on Monday, but gains remain capped as several European countries started to refill storage following a mild winter.

The front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub edged up by 0.55 euros to 39.88 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1022 GMT, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

"The recent price dips and favourable supply/demand outlook has helped kickstart storage injections which have now recorded two consecutive days of net injection (albeit small)," UK consultancy Auxilione said in a morning note.

European gas storage sites were 55.75% full on March 19, rising 0.02% for a second consecutive day, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows.

With the heating season officially over in less than two weeks, European storage should end the winter 50% full, analysts at ING research said.

"We will need to keep an eye on domestic consumption and see how it responds to the lower price environment," they added.

German gas consumption data was already showing a slowing down in savings, with week 10 down just 3% from the 2018-21 average, they said.

In Britain, prices were mixed. The day-ahead contract was flat at 91.00 pence per therm. The within-day contract was up 1.00 pence at 93.00 p/therm, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

Britain's gas system was 27.9 million cubic metres under-supplied, National Gas data showed.

Maintenance in Norway was curbing supply, while there was also less liquefied natural gas (LNG) being sent into the British system, a trader said.

Still, demand should lower through the week amid plenty of wind power generation and temperatures mostly above normal, the trader added.

Peak wind power generation in Britain was forecast at 17.4 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday, rising to 18.6 GW on Wednesday, out of total metered capacity of 22.2 GW, Elexon data showed.

Lower demand and options to increase LNG supplies also offset the threat of potential strike by British offshore workers for now, the trader said.

Some workers already called off strike actions on Tuesday.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was 2.19 euros up at 90.02 euros a tonne.

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