CHIPS Act: Not enough to tilt the playing field in favor of the U.S. -WFII

Wed, 28th Sep 2022 18:31

Major U.S. indexes rally >1.5%; small-caps outperform

All major S&P 500 sectors higher; energy leads

Dollar down; gold, crude, bitcoin rise

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield sharply reverses, now down to ~3.73%

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CHIPS ACT: NOT ENOUGH TO TILT THE PLAYING FIELD IN FAVOR OF THE U.S. -WFII (1322 EDT/1722 GMT)

In August, President Biden signed the CHIPS act into law. The legislation aims to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., yet according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), the bill is unlikely to reduce U.S. reliance on foreign chipmakers.

WFII says that the CHIPS Act allocates $54.2 billion to bolster U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, with $39 billion set aside for subsidies between fiscal years 2022 and 2026.

WFII notes that besides the U.S., the European Union, India, South Korea, and Japan have also passed legislation aimed to encourage localized chip production. Thus, given the extent of worldwide investment in the sector, WFII sees the CHIPS Act as providing insufficient funds to tilt the playing field in the favor of the U.S. In fact, they note that Taiwan's largest foundry alone plans to invest $100 billion in semiconductor initiatives over the next three years.

WFII expects global incentives to expand supply, but not stimulate demand. And with aggressive Fed rate hikes to cool demand and quell inflation, WFII says that the current semiconductor cycle is starting to trend lower, driven by faltering demand for computers, low- and mid-range smart phones, and gaming.

In any event, WFII does believe that the CHIPS act, combined with several big tech companies pledging $50 billion in investments in semiconductor initiatives, may serve to bolster tech sector sentiment.

The CHIPS act is also expected to directly benefit companies which own their own manufacturing facilities, as well as capital-equipment companies that supply them.

Given long lead times, WFII does expect the legislation to create longer-term opportunities in the IT sector. For example, they note that Taiwan's largest foundry plans to use subsidies to fund an advanced manufacturing facility in Arizona.

"With Taiwan's proximity to China, the CHIPS Act could be a first step toward strengthening the U.S.'s semiconductor supply chain. This may help alleviate risks associated with future pandemics and U.S. reliance on production in Asia, given U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan's sovereignty."

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index is last off about 39% year-to-date, putting in on track for its biggest yearly percentage decline since a 48%-collapse in 2008.

U.S. IPO SCENE ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 2008 (1215 EDT/1615 GMT)

Far fewer initial public offerings (IPO) have been completed during 2022 than in any of the past 25 years, with the exception of 2008, Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Only 32 flotations totaling $2.5 billion have been completed in the year to date, an 88% plunge from last year, when 259 new public companies were launched in addition to 394 SPAC offerings, GS strategists said.

In fact, IPO volume year to date is only slightly above the 22 deals completed during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis, they added.

A sharp slump in stock markets this year have put the U.S. IPO market on track for its worst year in over two decades, according to Dealogic.

Stubbornly high inflation, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and regulatory crackdown have also contributed to the waning appetite for SPACs, which were one of the hallmarks of pandemic-era dealmaking.

Social media platform Reddit and software firm ServiceTitan have been forced to delay their IPO plans this year in light of the volatility.

Prolific SPAC investor Chamath Palihapitiya last week wound down two of his blank-check firms after failing to find suitable merger targets within deadline.

STOCKS ON THE RADAR AS IAN BEARS DOWN ON FLORIDA (1145 EDT/1545 GMT)

As Hurricane Ian strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 storm and has begun lashing Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday, President Joe Biden said he has spoken with Governor Ron DeSantis.

Ian's potential wrath will surely be felt across a variety of sectors in the coming weeks, including some noted below.

With respect to the power space, Generac Holdings Inc will certainly be monitored as the company is viewed as benefiting from increased demand for its home standby generators and typically sees its shares rise amid major storms. GNRC shares are up 1.3% on Wednesday and have now gained in three of the past four sessions.

NextEra Energy, which owns utility Florida P&L, is another stock to watch given electricity outages. NextEra Energy was last up 1.8%.

Investors will eye insurers and reinsurers in the near term as the storm's damages are assessed. Among companies in the crosshairs are Travelers Cos Inc, American International Group Inc, Allstate Corp, Chubb, Progressive Corp and Assurant Inc.

Home Depot and Lowe's Companies may see a pick-up in business as homeowners look to repair and rebuild in Ian's aftermath.

In the travel sector, U.S. airlines have canceled over 2,000 flights and cruise line operators Carnival Corp , Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line have delayed, canceled and rerouted trips amid port shutdowns.

Meanwhile, Walt Disney, Comcast and SeaWorld Entertainment saw their shares drop on Tuesday after they announced temporary closures at their Orlando theme parks.

WHERE DEMAND GOES, WILL INFLATION FOLLOW? WEDNESDAY DATA ROUNDUP (1030 EDT/1430 GMT)

A data quartet on Wednesday played what's become a common theme song among recession Cassandras: rising interest rates and persistent price growth is dumping a bucket of cold water over the head of U.S. and global demand.

Signed contracts for pending sales of U.S. homes fell last month by 2%, extending the prior month's 0.6% decline and delivering a larger drop than the -1.4% consensus.

The National Association of Realtors' (NAR) pending home sales index is considered among the more forward-looking housing market indicators, as signed contracts tend to show up in actual sales data a month or two down the road.

The report falls in lockstep with housing market trends echoed through other data, including building permits, homebuilder sentiment, mortgage demand and others (with the notable exception of the freakish surge in new home sales data released on Tuesday).

Excluding the brief flash-dip of the initial pandemic shock, the last time the pending home sales index was this low was May 2011, just months after Obama-era home buying incentives expired.

The sector is suffering a hangover from its COVID-era heyday, when demand for breathing room and home office space sent buyers sprinting to the suburbs, a phenomenon which drove inventories to record lows and launched home prices into orbit.

That, combined with soaring mortgage rates, have put monthly home payments beyond the means of many potential buyers, particularly at the lower end of the market.

"The direction of mortgage rates – upward or downward – is the prime mover for home buying, and decade-high rates have deeply cut into contract signings," writes Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. "Only when inflation calms down will we see mortgage rates begin to steady.

Thanks for the tidy segue, Mr. Yun.

Interest rates for home loans took yet another step up the mountain, dampening mortgage demand by 3.7%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The average 30-year fixed contract rate jumped 27 basis points to 6.52%, its highest level in more than 14 years.

Applications for loans to purchase homes dipped by a nominal 0.4%, but refi demand plunged 10.9%.

"The resulting erosion in homebuying affordability will put further downward pressure on housing activity in the months ahead," says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics (OE), who goes on to starkly spell out the affordability in hard numbers.

"Despite some decline in existing home prices, the recent back-up in rates has pushed the monthly mortgage payment on a median priced existing home up to about $1925, up 12% compared to August and up 57% since the end of 2021."

Finally, the Commerce Department released its advance take on last month's goods trade balance and wholesale inventories.

With respect to the trade balance, the bad news is that both imports and exports declined in August, signaling softening global demand in the face of lingering inflation heat. The good news is that imports saw a steeper than exports, resulting in a narrowing trade gap.

That's a positive sign for current-quarter U.S. economic growth, as net exports have been a drag on GDP in seven of the last eight quarters.

While noting that a strong dollar helped lower the cost of imports, Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial says, "After two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. will likely reverse course and eke out positive growth in Q3 as a strong dollar narrows the trade deficit.

"As import prices ease, we expect a further narrowing of the trade deficit for September," Roach adds.

The value of goods stored in wholesaler warehouses grew by 1.3%, another upbeat omen, suggesting not only a right-sizing in the supply chain but also a harbinger for third quarter economic growth.

"More important, nonauto retail inventories (the key input from the retail data for GDP) were +0.6% m/m after +0.3% m/m in July," notes Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Wall Street appeared eager to snap its longest losing streak since February 2020, with all three major stock indexes wearing solid shades of green.

While the welcome rally was broad-based, investors favored value over growth by nearly two-to-one, with energy, smallcaps and transports outperforming.

MAJOR U.S. INDEXES GAIN, BUT APPLE A DRAG (1030 EDT/1430 GMT)

The main U.S. indexes are higher in early trading on Wednesday, a day after the benchmark S&P index recorded its lowest close in almost two years.

Apple Inc shares, however, are down more than 3% early, weighing on the market in the wake of a Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter, that Apple was dropping plans to increase production of its new iPhones this year after an anticipated surge in demand failed to materialize.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is reversing to the downside, helping to provide some support, with investor focus on interest rates remaining high.

Nearly all of the major S&P 500 sectors are higher, except for technology, which, given Apple weakness, is down around 0.4%.

Here is a snapshot of where markets stood around 45 minutes into the trading day:

BEAR MARKET DEEPENS: HOW'S SENTIMENT LOOKING? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

The S&P 500 index ended Tuesday down 24% from its early January 2022 record close. Given the extent of the decline, let's take stock of where some sentiment measures stand.

The latest American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment survey (AAII), released last week, showed the highest percentage of bears since the Financial Crisis lows - click here: And that was before this week's SPX slide to near two-year lows.

The 5-day moving average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio, now at 84.2%, has risen to its highest level since March 20, 2020:

That was one trading day before the SPX ended its pandemic crash. That said, this measure did spike as high at 105.2% on March 17, 2020, which was four trading days (tds) prior to the bottom.

In any event, from a contrarian perspective, the AAII survey and the put/call measure are potentially suggesting a market ripe for a turn.

Meanwhile, the CBOE SKEW index, a measure of demand for "crash protection," is behaving in an opposite manner to the put/call measure:

In theory, the higher the SKEW, the greater the perceived tail risk, and chance of a black-swan shock.

As stands, and perhaps in the wake of the SPX already suffering a bear market, the SKEW is at relatively low levels.

Last Thursday, it fell to 115.86, or its lowest level since April 1, 2020. In the 2020 market collapse, it did bottom at 113.54 just three trading days ahead of the March 23, 2020 SPX low.

Finally, the CBOE Volatility index has now risen to its highest level since June 13, which was three trading days ahead of the SPX's June 16 closing low, and four trading days before its June 17 intraday trough:

Of note, despite lower-SPX-lows, the VIX remains shy of its 2022 highs. That said, looking back more than 20 years, this fits with the more common manner in which this implied volatility measure has behaved into major market lows - click here:

Of concern, however, the VIX appears to be breaking out a triangular pattern to the upside.

No indicators are perfect: the AAII sentiment could become "more bearish," the put/call measure could go higher, the SKEW was relatively low prior to the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the VIX could still see a wild spike higher.

FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE: