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BUZZ-Weaker GBP offers a silver lining for UK MNCs

Thu, 18th Sep 2014 15:53

** When the dust settles following tonight's Scottishreferendum, any sustained sterling weakness that arises willoffer some UK bluechips something to cheer about.

** Impact of a stronger pound has been a key theme for last2 quarterly earnings seasons and has hit revisions and EPSforecasts for the UK.

** The FTSE 100 has seen negative EPS revisions on aone- & three-month basis for 3 years. Chart:

http://link.reuters.com/tuw82w

** The index has had a close correlation with the GBP overthe past decade. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/suw82w

** Sterling has lost 1.4 percent against the dollar thismonth, weighed by concern a Scottish vote for independence wouldundermine investment and growth.

** According to Nomura, Unilever, which gets almost3/4th of its revenue from outside Europe, has highest degree ofnegative correlation to GBP strength over past 10 years.

** GlaxoSmithKline, Pearson, AstraZeneca and Recite Benckiser make up the top 5.

** On the flip side, Barclays, Aviva, AngloAmerican, Weir Group and Fresnillo havethe strongest correlations to GBP strength. (RM: tricia.wright1.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net; RM:vikram.subhedar.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

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