Less Ads, More Data, More Tools Register for FREE

Pin to quick picksShire Share News (SHP)

  • There is currently no data for SHP

Watchlists are a member only feature

Login to your account

Alerts are a premium feature

Login to your account

ANALYSIS-Buy yen in crisis? Not this year

Tue, 24th Jul 2018 15:08

* Yen weakest G10 currency this month despite globalturbulence

* Investors doubt BOJ can reduce stimulus aggressively

* Japanese purchases of foreign equities highest in nearly 3years

* Bond investors growing reluctant to hedge foreign holdings

* Japanese firms spend record sum on foreign acquisitions inH1

By Tom Finn and Hideyuki Sano

LONDON/TOKYO, July 24 (Reuters) - The trade is familiar toinvestors worldwide: in times of turmoil, rush for cover bybuying the Japanese yen.

This year a global trade row has erupted, Donald Trump haslamented the dollar's strength - ignoring a custom that U.S.presidents avoid openly interfering in financial markets - andthe Chinese yuan has tumbled.

And yet the yen has stayed resolutely weak, becoming theweakest of the G10 developed market currencies this month.

The yen's safe-haven status is not in doubt, underpinned byJapan's nearly two trillion yen ($18 billion) monthly tradesurplus. But without a massive world market shock to discourageJapanese investors from buying foreign assets, the yen is likelyto stay weak - above all because the Bank of Japan lags behindits central bank peers in ending monetary stimulus.

Investors doubt the BOJ can aggressively reduce the stimulusmeasures as inflation remains well below target and corporateprofits are recovering slowly.

The BOJ is debating policy changes to make its stimulus"more sustainable", sources told Reuters, but this pushed theyen up only briefly on Monday.

"The Bank of Japan is still pursuing easing which is stillprompting domestic investors to borrow yen and buy overseasassets," said Anton Eser, CIO at Legal and General InvestmentManagement which manages 983 billion pounds ($1.29 trillion) inassets.

While U.S. interest rates have risen seven times since 2016and the European Central Bank plans to wind down its bondpurchases by end-2018, the BOJ is still buying local securities,albeit at a slower pace.

Japanese investors are therefore likely to keep pouringmoney into foreign assets, despite global market wobbles.

Their net purchases of foreign equities reached 1.5 trillionyen in June, the highest in nearly three years. Even as thetrade row deepened, they bought 371 billion yen of overseasstocks during the first week of July.

HEDGE TRIMMING

However, Japanese funds are growing reluctant to hedgeexposure to billions of dollars' of U.S. assets.

"I suspect some investors are reducing currency hedge ontheir foreign bond investments," a senior trader at a majorJapanese bank in Tokyo told Reuters, requesting anonymity.

Japanese fund managers buying 10-year U.S. Treasuries on afully hedged basis now earn a slim 33 basis points in yield,compared with 50-80 bps last year. As the Federal Reserve keepsraising interest rates, even that yield advantage could vanish.

And a lack of demand for yen from investors in the currencyforwards market would feed into falling spot market demand.

"Currency hedging costs have risen rapidly. Japaneseinvestors have stopped hedging. That stops them buying the yen.The flow is for selling yen," said Adam Cole, chief currencystrategist at RBC in London.

Another source of yen selling is Japanese companies makingacquisitions overseas due to lacklustre economic growth and ashrinking population at home. Thomson Reuters data showsJapanese investors spent a record 13.0 trillion yen on foreignacquisitions in the first half of the year.

These included Takeda Pharmaceutical's $62 billionacquisition of London-listed drugmaker Shire Plc.

Initially the deal helped to push the British pound up morethan four percent against the yen in early-April, but in Maytraders started to buy dollars on news that Takeda's payment toShire shareholders would be in dollars.

TRADE WINDS

Trade conflict would seem yen-positive by raising globalmarket volatility. In fact, this is helping to push it down.

Japan is vulnerable to a trade war. Autos, for instance,comprise almost 30 percent of its exports to the United Statesand new U.S. tariffs could hurt Tokyo's vaunted trade surplus.

Also, as fund managers worldwide cut foreign investmentholdings, much of this cash is going to U.S. markets instead ofthe "safe havens". The dollar is likely to benefit from a tradewar due to the United States' lower reliance on exports.

"Rather than move into the Swiss franc or the Japanese yen,the widening interest rate differential in favour of the U.S.dollar is currently providing investors with a strongalternative," Rabobank currency strategist Jane Foley said.

Global investors now hold their biggest overweight positionin U.S. equities in 17 months, Bank of America Merrill Lynch'spoll showed last week. Other equity holdings have fallen andallocations to Japan slid for the third time in four months.

Correlation has been high this year between Japanese stocksand the yen, with both losing ground, BAML's FX strategist KamalSharma noted. That's unusual because yen weakness usually booststhe Nikkei average.

"If U.S. share markets crumbled, then we would be in adifferent situation," the Tokyo-based trader said. "But as longas Wall Street is in the risk-on mode, the dollar will besupported against the yen."($1 = 111.2400 yen)($1 = 0.7629 pounds)

(Additional reporting by Shinji Kitamura and Tommy Wilkes;Graphic by Ritvik Carvalho; Writing by Saikat Chatterjee;Editing by Sujata Rao and David Stamp)

More News
25 Oct 2018 15:20

TOP NEWS: Shire Seeks US Approval To Make Flexbumin At New Facility

LONDON (Alliance News) - Pharmaceutical company Shire PLC on Thursday said it has filed a submission to the US Food & Drug Administration for approval to manufacture Flexbumin at its new is as

Read more
23 Oct 2018 16:25

MOVES-JPMorgan reshuffles healthcare group, co-head departs -sources

By Greg Roumeliotis and Liana B. Baker Oct 23 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co has appointed Mike Gaito as global co-head of healthcare investment banking after Jeff Stute, who held that

Read more
19 Oct 2018 14:38

Shire's lanadelumab gets one step closer to European approval

(Sharecast News) - Rare disease-focussed biotechnology company Shire announced on Friday that the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) has adopted a positive opinion recommending the granting of marketing authorisation of 'lanadelumab' injection, for the routine prevention of recurrent attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE) in patients aged 12 years and older.

Read more
18 Oct 2018 09:26

UPDATE 1-Takeda gets Japanese approval for $62 bln Shire purchase

Oct 18 (Reuters) - Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd said on Thursday Japan's Fair Trade Commission had approved its $62 billion acquisition of Shire Plc, bringing the Japanese firm closer to a it

Read more
1 Oct 2018 11:24

Schroder Japan Growth Outperforms Benchmark In Full Year

LONDON (Alliance News) - Schroder Japan Growth Fund PLC said on Monday it outperformed its benchmark in its recently ended financial year due to a robust performance in the first half, in spite of

Read more
28 Sep 2018 06:23

UK Stocks-Factors to watch on Sept 28

Sept 28 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 index is seen opening 8 points higher at 7,553 on Friday, according to financial bookmakers. * SHIRE: Japan M&A volumes are set to break a 19-year-old

Read more
28 Sep 2018 04:09

Morning News Call - India, September 28

To access the newsletter, click on the link: http://share.thomsonreuters.com/assets/newsletters/Indiamorning/MNC_IN_09282018.pdf If you would like to receive this newsletter via email, please at: TO

Read more
27 Sep 2018 17:53

UPDATE 1-FTSE rises to 4-week high helped by sterling weakness

* FTSE 100 up 0.5 pct * Higher crude lifts oil stocks, hits airlines * TUI sticks to forecasts, shares gain (Adds details, closing prices) By Danilo Masoni MILAN, Sept

Read more
21 Sep 2018 11:26

Shire Gets Japanese Approval For Rare Genetic Disease Drug Firazyr

LONDON (Alliance News) - Pharmaceutical company Shire PLC on Friday said it has been granted manufacturing and marketing authorisation in Japan for its hereditary angioedema drug, Japanese of has

Read more
21 Sep 2018 07:19

Shire gets approval for hereditary angioedema treatment in Japan

(Sharecast News) - Rare disease specialist Shire announced on Friday that the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) in Japan has granted manufacturing and marketing authorisation for its 'FIRAZYR' icatibant injection, for the acute treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks in adult patients with HAE.

Read more
17 Sep 2018 06:41

UK Stocks-Factors to watch on Sept 17

Britain's FTSE 100 index is seen opening 11 points lower at 7,293 on Monday, according to financial bookmakers. * GOLD: Gold inched up on Monday as bargain-hunters bought the metal after prices

Read more
14 Sep 2018 17:28

UPDATE 1-FTSE tracks Europe higher; Shire shines

* FTSE 100 up 0.3 pct * Shire gains after China nod to Takeda deal * Housebuilders in focus * Investec rallies on spin-off plans (Adds closing) By Danilo Sept 14 - top

Read more
14 Sep 2018 12:01

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Stocks Higher As Shire And Whitbread Gain

LONDON (Alliance News) - Stocks in London were higher at midday on Friday with Shire and Whitbread performing well among FTSE 100 constituents, while in the FTSE was

Read more
14 Sep 2018 10:32

WINNERS & LOSERS SUMMARY: Housebuilders Hit By No-Deal Brexit Warning

LONDON (Alliance News) - The following stocks are the leading risers and fallers within the main London indices on Friday.----------FTSE 100 - up 1.8%. Takeda Pharmaceutical said it had in of

Read more
14 Sep 2018 10:16

FTSE tracks Europe higher on trade hopes; Shire shines

(For a live blog on European stocks, type LIVE/ in an Eikon news window) * FTSE 100 up 0.1 pct * Shire gains after China nod to Takeda deal * Housebuilders under Investec on -

Read more

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.

Quickpicks are a member only feature

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.