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HOW ABOUT A GAME OF PAYROLL POKER? (1116 GMT)
Have nonfarm payrolls slipped your mind? It wouldn't be a surprise, given the bloodbath in markets this morning after a bank stocks sell-off triggered by issues at U.S. tech-lender Silicon Valley Bank.
But the pivotal number is just hours away. Expected to show an increase of about 205,000, the figure follows January's larger-than-expected rise of 517,000.
In its weekly flow show, BofA analysts advise a game of "payroll poker".
As a guide, investors should watch the U.S. dollar, the best "risk-on, risk-off" barometer for the past 6 months, they say. The dollar is around 105.250 this morning, more or less flat.
A soft jobs report would lower interest rate hike expectations and push the dollar down, and the reverse is true.
In a risk-on scenario, the dollar index drops to 103, on the assumption that there's a 25bps hike from the Fed in March, BofA said. Under that scenario, they recommend going "long 30-year Treasury, oil, China high-yield, REITs, US/EU investment-grade bank bonds, Asian equities."
On the other hand, in a risk-off situation, the dollar could touch 107, the market would price in a 50-bp hike from the Fed and it would be time to short: "silver, copper, semis, tech, private equity, banks, industrials, Europe luxury, US defense, Mexico, long EM CDX." So not that much, then.
NO REAL CONTAGION FOR EUROPE'S BANKS FROM "SILLY-CON VALLEY": EXANE (0922 GMT)
The problems at U.S. tech-lender Silicon Valley Bank have spooked markets and prompted a mass sell-off in banking stocks on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors are preparing for the possibility of U.S. rates going beyond 5.5% and anything even vaguely rate-sensitive is taking a kicking this morning.
While the issues at SVB, which is trying to plug a $1.8 billion hole caused by the sale of a $21 billion loss-making bond portfolio, have caused a stir, they're unlikely to cause a wider systemic problem, according to broker Exane.
The company has an idiosyncratic business model that prone to declining deposits and problems with its liquidity position.
"As mentioned, there is no systemic issue and hence there should be no contagion or readacross to European banks. Similar to U.S. peers, European banks have been gradually marking to market their bond portfolios as rates have been going up, with no significant impact to CET1 ratios as sensitivity is low. The system remains robust and healthy," Exane says.
"We would buy the on weakness, including preferred names such as Unicredit, Commerzbank and Caixa. Eyes will remain on the US for now as banks and regulators will move to stabilise the SIVB-specific situation," they said.
(Amanda Cooper)
BANK ON A BLOODBATH (0820 GMT)
European banks have opened up deeply in the red, after tech-lender SVB Financial launched a share sale to shore up its balance sheet, prompting an exodus from financial stocks.
The STOXX banks index fell by as much as 4.9%, which, if it closes down that much, will mark it biggest one-day fall since last June. There were steep drops in the likes of heavyweights such as HSBC, which is down by more than 5%, Deutsche Bank is off 7.2% and BNP Paribas is down 4.3%.
Given the weight of its banks, the FTSE 100 is lagging other major indices this morning, down 2%, while Frankfurt's DAX is down 1.9%, and the STOXX 600 is also off 1.9%.
Adding to the volatility is the all-important U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls report at 1330 GMT. Investors are avid to see if January's bumper increase was a fluke, or whether February's data will show similar strength in the labour market.
(Amanda Cooper)
EUROPEAN STOCKS SET FOR A SAVAGING (0738)
European shares are set for a savage start a day after tumbling banking stocks sent U.S. shares down sharply.
STOXX 50 futures are down 1.45% with sharp falls in both German and British index futures.
Wall Street's three major stock indexes closed between 1.6% and 2% lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500's bank index finished down 6.6% after tech-industry lender SVB Financial Group launched a share sale to shore up its balance sheet due to declining deposits from startups struggling for funding.
Big European banks were down in pre market trading, and U.S. banks' Frankfurt-listed shares slid.
In other company news, Robert Walters, founder and CEO of recruitment firm named after him will retire and will step down from the board on April 27 after 38 years at the group.
U.S. payrolls data due later on Friday will also be a major factor for markets.
*****
MORNING BID EUROPE-JUMPY AROUND JOBS (0530)
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has made sure there is heightened focus on today's U.S. payrolls data. In his speech to Congress, Powell curiously mentioned this data point as one among a couple of indicators framing the Fed's thinking around how far and fast interest rates need to rise.
That nervous anticipation isn't the only thing weighing on markets. Asian banking and tech stocks are weak, after a plunge in the S&P 500 bank index overnight marking its biggest one-day drop in nearly three years.
That was triggered by startup lender SVB Financial Group's share sale announcement and crypto bank Silvergate's decision to wind down operations.
Investors head into Friday pricing in a roughly 63% likelihood of a larger, 50 basis point increase to the Fed funds target rate this month, after Thursday's U.S. jobs report showing a rise in jobless claims pushed Treasury yields down and reduced inversion in the front of the curve.
The nail-biting around payrolls has meant investors barely reacted to other unsurprising but orchestrated developments in Asia.
Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third five-year term on Friday as China's president as he tightens his grip as the country's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.
Haruhiko Kuroda concluded his last policy meeting as Bank of Japan governor, leaving Japan's ultra-low interest rates and controversial bond yield control policy an issue for successor Kazuo Ueda to tackle.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
U.S. February payrolls
U.K. January industrial production
