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UK MIDDAY BRIEFING: European Court Opinion Clears Way For ECB Action

Wed, 14th Jan 2015 12:35

LONDON (Alliance News) - UK and European stocks were temporarily lifted from morning lows Wednesday, while the euro fell below its 1999 launch rate against the dollar, after an advisor to the European Court of Justice effectively gave the European Central Bank the go-ahead for quantitative easing.

The ECB's so-called Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), which forms the basis of its government-bond plans, are "in principle in line with the EU treaty", one of the advocates-general of the European Court of Justice, Pedro Cruz Villalon, said in an opinion.

The opinion gives a green light to ECB President Mario Draghi to launch a government bond-buying programme aimed at spurring economic growth and heading off deflation, possibly as early as next week when the ECB policy-making council meets for the first time this year.

Villalon's opinion is highly influential but non-binding. A panel of 15 of the court's judges is expected to provide a final ruling in the next six months.

The ECB news helped ameliorate a gloomy forecast for the global economy from the World Bank. The Washington-based development agency projected global growth of 3% in 2015, slower than the 3.4% it estimated in June. It cited stronger growth in the US and Britain but weakness in the eurozone and Japan. The forecast for the euro area growth is a sluggish 1.1% in 2015

Developing countries will see growth rise to 4.8% from 4.4% last year. Soft commodity prices, low interest rates, divergent monetary policies in major economies, and weak world trade are expected to impact growth, the World Bank's biannual Global Economic Prospects report said.

Meanwhile, UK corporate news was again dominated by retailers and other consumer stocks Wednesday, with Burberry, SuperGroup, Ocado and Cineworld, among others, providing Christmas trading updates.
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Markets: London stocks are trading sharply lower on the downbeat World Bank economic outlook, after a short-lived boost from the European court opinion. Wall Street is forecast to open lower. Futures indicate the DJIA and S&P 500 indices will start down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%.

The euro touched a low of USD1.1728 Wednesday. According the ECB website, the euro traded at USD1.1789 on January 4, 1999.

Copper prices have sunk to a five-year low, dragging down mining stocks in London.

FTSE 100: down 1.7% at 6,428.31
FTSE 250: down 1.0% at 15,932.29
AIM ALL-SHARE: down 0.7% at 697.58
GBP-USD: up at 1.5190
EUR-USD: down at USD1.1755
GOLD: down at USD1,228.10 an ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD46.67 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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British luxury fashion retailer Burberry Group said retail sales rose 14% year-on-year during the third quarter, with the Americas one of its main growth drivers, but said weaker sales in Hong Kong held back growth in the period. Burberry said retail revenue came in at GBP604 million for the three months to end-December. Comparable sales, which takes out the effect of new store openings, were up 8% in the quarter on the year before, which is a slowdown from growth of 12% in the first half of the year. Analysts were expecting growth of around 7% for the quarter.
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Barratt Developments said it is on track for a significant improvement in its full-year results after reporting a rise in total completions, average selling prices and forward sales in the first half. The FTSE 100-listed housebuilder said total completions in the six months to the end of December rose 12.5% to 6,971 from 6,195 a year earlier. The total average selling prices for the company's houses rose 8.4% to GBP229,000 from GBP211,200 a year ago. Total forward sales for the company, including joint ventures, rose 17.1% to stand at GBP1.68 billion at the end of December, up from GBP1.44 billion a year earlier.
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Barclays said it has appointed Jonathan Moulds, formerly of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, to a newly created chief operating officer role to accelerate the bank's strategic plan and be accountable for a programme that includes the implementation of structural reforms in the US and the UK. The appointment means that Moulds, who will report directly to Chief Executive Antony Jenkins, will be responsible for meeting Barclays' objective of attaining a sustainable return on equity above the cost of equity under its Transform programme. Moulds also will have accountability for the bank's structural reform programme, which includes implementation of a ring-fenced bank in the UK and an intermediate holding company in the US.
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AstraZeneca said the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 study has successfully met its primary efficacy targets, with a preliminary analysis showing no unexpected safety issues. In the trial, which involved 21,000 patients, researchers assessed Brilinta tablets administered at either 60mg twice daily or 90mg twice daily, plus low-dose aspirin for the secondary prevention of atherothrombotic events in people who had suffered a heart attack one to three years prior to taking part in the study. A preliminary analysis of the results from the study showed no unexpected safety issues, though AstraZeneca said full analysis of the data is ongoing.
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British Land Co and Oxford Properties said they have secured a series of new lettings at the Leadenhall Building in the City of London. The two have secured a total of 93,400 square feet of new lettings at the building, nicknamed the Cheesegrater, including Rogers Stirk Harbour & Partners, the firm of Richard Rogers, the architect of the tower. The two companies said they also have signed deal for a further five floors in three other deals, bringing the total office space either let or under offer at the building to around 70%.
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Ryanair Holdings has put more pressure on Aer Lingus Group to accept a bid from International Consolidated Airlines Group after it speculated that the owner of British Airways and Iberia may return with a higher offer later this week, The Times reported. Ryanair, which is the largest shareholder in Aer Lingus with a 29% stake, said IAG may have to put an offer of EUR2.50 to EUR2.70 per share on the table in order to win control of Aer Lingus. Its shares closed in London on Tuesday at EUR2.46 per share.
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Shares in SuperGroup rose 10% after the retailer said it saw a "strong performance" over the peak Christmas trading period, and is comfortable with delivering a profit for the year in the region of GBP60 million to GBP65 million. In a surprise trading update, the company said total retail sales for the 11 weeks to January 10 rose just short of 18%, while on a like-for-like basis sales grew by more than 12%, which it said was against softer comparatives than the first half. The retailer also said it embarked on more discounting over Christmas than previous years, as it needed to clear some of the excess stock it built up during the autumn months.
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Online takeaway company Just Eat said it is "highly confident" for its 2014 results, both financial and operational, after it saw a 50% increase in orders during the year. The online and mobile takeaway food ordering platform said total orders in 2014 increased 52% year-on-year, boosted by the consolidation of orders from its French business in the second half of the year, although it said that excludes any Brazilian orders from November onwards when that business became an associate. On a like-for-like basis, it said orders were up 50%.
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Ocado Group said gross retail sales in December were up 14.8% on last year. In a short Christmas trading update, the online-only grocer said that its "solid" growth performance from the fourth quarter continued into the run up to Christmas, with sales on its biggest day leading up to Christmas of nearly GBP6 million, up 15% year-on-year.
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Cineworld Group posted a rise in revenue for the full year and said it expects its profit for the year to be at the top end of market guidance, as its UK and Ireland business outperformed the wider market. The FTSE 250 cinema chain said total revenue for the 53 weeks to January 1 was up 5.2% year-on-year, noting this year includes an extra trading week. On a 52-week comparison, group revenue rose 1.7% year-on-year.
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Dechra Pharmaceuticals said trading in the first half of its financial year was in line with its expectations and said it expects to meet its forecast for the full year, despite revenue being held back by currency fluctuations. Group revenue for the six months to the end of December rose 6% against what the FTSE 250-listed group said was a soft comparator the year before. At constant currencies, group revenue rose 12% in the half.
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Premier Oil shares were hit after it warned it will be writing off USD300 million worth of value from a number of its assets in 2015 due to the low oil price, despite hedging over 40% of its production, which significantly increased during 2014. The company said it will be making a material impairment charge in the second half of 2015 on some of its assets to reflect the low Brent crude oil spot price and forward curve price at the year end of 2014. The impairment charge is currently estimated to total USD300 million on a post-tax basis. Production during 2014 averaged 63,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 9.3% compared to the 58,200 barrels of oil equivalent produced per day in 2013.
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AIM Movers
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Helius Energy, up 20%. Helius said it is in "early discussions" with a new potential funder and is expecting some form of development by March. Christie Group, up 11%. The agency and advisory services provider said it expects to beat market expectations for the full year to December 31 following a strong end to 2014. Rosslyn Data Technologies, up 11%. The company said its Rosslyn Analytics Inc subsidiary has won a contract from the State University System of Florida. Under the five-year deal, worth USD1 million to Rosslyn, the unit will provide cloud-based analytics to the university system's 12 member universities in Florida. Victoria, up 9.6%. The carpets and floorcovering company said it has agreed a deal to buy the Whitestone Weavers group of companies for a total of GBP13.7 million.

Kea Petroleum, off 25%. The company said it has shut in production at the Puka site in Taranaki in New Zealand. Kea said it has been unable to resolve the mechanical issues it has faced with the Puka-1 well. It had been attempting to fix the problems while continuing production from Puka-2. Totally, down 16%. The digital healthcare services company issued a warning on its 2014 results, saying its loss will be wider than market expectations due to a fall in revenue caused by contract delays. Deltex Medical Group, down 15%. The company said it expects its loss to be wider than market expectations, as its sales were hit by National Health Service de-stocking in the UK and by contract delays in its international business. Tungsten Corp, down 14%. The automated invoice processing provider said that putting the foundations for growth in place had taken longer than expected, as it reported a loss for its first half.
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Other Top Economics And General
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Eurozone industrial production increased for the third consecutive month in November, Eurostat reported. Industrial production rose 0.2% in November from October when it was up by revised 0.3%. The October figure was revised up from 0.1%. Economists had forecast output to remain flat. This was the third monthly rise in production.
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Italy's longest-serving head of state, Giorgio Napolitano, quit his office after an almost nine-year tenure, formalizing a move he announced two weeks ago. In a statement, Napolitano's office said a copy of his resignation letter was delivered to the speakers of both houses of parliament, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, and to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The 89-year-old president was keen to retire, due to the strains of old age. Two years ago he reluctantly agreed to start a second seven-year mandate, after parliament could not agree on a successor, but warned he would not last a full term.
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Searchers were on Wednesday focused on finding the fuselage of the crashed AirAsia plane, after they retrieved the aircraft's flight recorders this week, an Indonesian official said. "We believe there are still many bodies there," said the search operations director, Air Commodore Suryadi Supriyadi. Divers retrieved the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder from the seabed on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.
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US President Barack Obama has announced additional steps to strengthen cyber security, which call for more information sharing, modernized law enforcement and updated security data breach reporting. The Obama administration is continuing efforts to help defend the nation's computer-connected systems in the wake of a spate of attacks against high-profile US targets. "Cyber threats pose an enormous challenge for our country," the president said while speaking at the National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center in Arlington, Virginia, Tuesday. " Obama vowed that as long as he is president, "protecting America's digital infrastructure is going to remain a top national security priority."
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Thousands of people queued at news stands across France to get their hands on the first issue of Charlie Hebdo after the Islamist attacks against the satirical magazine, which printed a cartoon of the prophet Mohammed on its cover. Three million copies of the issue with the weeping cartoon holding a sign saying "Je suis Charlie" below the headline "All is forgiven" are scheduled to be printed this week, far more than the weekly's normal circulation of 60,000. The cover was a clear message from the surviving staff members of the magazine that the killing of 12 people at its Paris headquarters last week by two Islamist brothers would not intimidate them into changing their crude sense of humour.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in GMT)

13:30 US Export and Import Price indices
13:30 US Retail Sales
14:15 UK BOE Governor Carney speech
15:00 US Business Inventories
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks
18:00 US Fed's Beige Book
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Thursday's Key UK Corporate Events

Mothercare - Q3 Trading Statement
Tullow Oil - Trading Statement
Associated British Foods - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Booker Group - Q3 Interim Management Statement
Bovis Homes - Trading Statement
Experian - Q3 Interim Management Statement
Home Retail Group - Q3 Interim Management Statement
Lavendon Group - Trading Statement
Braemar Shipping Services - Interim Management Statement
4imprint Group - Trading Statement
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Thursday's Key Economic Events (all times in GMT)

00:01 UK RICS Housing Price Balance
02:00 China M2 Money Supply and New Loans
08:00 Germany Real GDP Growth
10:00 EU Trade Balance
11:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index
13:30 US Jobless Claims
13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
13:30 US Producer Price Index
15:00 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
15:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage change
16:15 Germany Buba President Weidmann speech
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By Tom Waite; thomaslwaite@alliancenews.com; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.


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