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UK MARKET TALK ROUNDUP: BROKERS COMMENTS

Fri, 30th Jul 2010 10:47

Broker comments in the UK today. Compiled by Dow Jones Newswires Markets Desk, markets.eu@dowjones.com Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464 Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com 0947 GMT [Dow Jones] Collins Stewart raises PartyGaming (PRTY.LN) price target to 350p from 265p, following its proposed merger with bwin (BWIN.VI). Says the fit with bwin looks particularly strong, and the group would have an even balance between poker, casino, sports and a good spread of country risk. Says, "clearly, there is execution risk on the merger...but the option value on an opening of the US online market has increased, while there could be strong technical demand for what would be a FTSE 100 entrant." Keeps PartyGaming at buy. Shares are -4.1% at 297p. (andrea.tryphonides@dowjones.com) 0916 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley switches out of Henderson Group (HGI.LN), downgrading to equalweight from overweight and into Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN.LN), upgrading to overweight from equalweight. Thinks Aberdeen has a more compelling flow recovery and earnings growth potential. Cuts Henderson price target to 150p from 153p and lifts Aberdeen price target to 175p from 155p. Meanwhile, reiterates its overweight recommendation on Schroders (SDR.LN). Expects it to demonstrate "best-in-class" growth among its coverage universe in 2Q '10. Cuts the price target to 1545p from 1565p, reflecting markets, currency and flow data. Reduces F&C Asset Management (FCAM.LN) price target to 62p from 76p to also reflect lost mandates and reduced performance fee expectations. Keeps equalweight. (andrea.tryphonides@dowjones.com) 0857 GMT [Dow Jones] Anglo American's (AAL.LN) first half results "could have a neutral to positive impact on Anglo's share price, as a positive earnings surprise is offset by more bad news on Minas Rio," says Citigroup. Anglo reported rise in 1H 10 underlying earnings per share to $1.84, beating Citi's forecast of $1.65 by 12%, the bank says. Reinstatement of the dividend "points to a positive outlook" and Anglo says it intends to reinstate its progressive dividend policy, another positive, the bank says. But the company has reported more bad news on Minas Rio. Capex for phase 1 of Minas Rio could go up by $750 million to $4.55 billion with commissioning now pushed out to 3Q13 compared to previous expectations of 4Q12. Citi has a 3600p target price and buy rating on the stock. Anglo American flat at 2540p. (alex.macdonald@dowjones.com) 0834 GMT [Dow Jones] Anglo American (AAL.LN) 1H operating profit is 5% above consensus forecast and in line with Credit Suisse's forecast, the bank says. Anglo American 1H operating profit at $4.4 billion compared to a company consensus forecast of $4.1 billion based on 12 analysts polled. Underlying earnings per share was $1.84 compared to consensus forecast of $1.73 and Credit Suisse's $1.89. Credit Suisse says it's "concerned over ongoing negative news on Minas Rio. With the divestment strategy nearing completion the next phase of performance has to be driven by real cost reductions and successful project progression." Minas Rio capex increased by $750 million and the Likely start date is now 2013 at the earliest with further licensing delays potentially pushing the project start date into 2014. Credit Suisse has a neutral rating and a 3000p target. Shares +0.5% at 2552p. (alex.macdonald@dowjones.com) 0821 GMT [Dow Jones] Anglo American's (AAL.LN) 1H results slightly miss expectations, says Liberum Capital. Anglo American reported underlying EPS of $1.84 versus its expectations of $1.98, underlying net earnings of $2.2 billion, below Liberum's US$2.4 billion estimate, and Ebitda of $5.4 billion versus Liberum's expectations of US$5.6 billion, the bank says. It adds that "the tone of progress at Minas Rio is not reassuring - key permits remain outstanding and AAL lack certainty on when construction can begin." Anglo is flagging production delays until mid-2013 at least, a $210 million capex increase plus $540 million if permits are received within 9 months, the bank says. "In our view there are no nasty surprises here." Liberum has a buy rating on the stock. Anglo American +0.1% at 2543p. (alex.macdonald@dowjones.com) 0819 GMT [Dow Jones] A delay to development of BTG's (BGC.LN) experimental sepsis treatment CytoFab has only a marginal impact on BTG's valuation, says Ambrian analyst Chris Redhead. AstraZeneca (AZN.LN), which is developing CytoFab, said Thursday it expects to file the product for approval in 2015. It previously said it would file it in 2014. Redhead adds CytoFab is already perceived as a high risk program. Keeps buy recommendation, although notes some investors may take profits given that the stock has appreciated by around 20% since March. Sees fair value for BTG at 268p. Shares +0.1% at 215p (jason.douglas@dowjones.com) 0740 GMT [Dow Jones] United Business Media's (UBM.LN) 1H results are slightly ahead of KBC Peel's forecasts says the brokerage, but with a cautiously optimistic outlook. KBCPH adds that Print continues to dilute overall performance, but Events continues to drive the group. Still, the brokerage keeps a buy rating, saying on a FY2011 recovery basis, the stock looks inexpensive. Shares -3.8% at 557.5p. (peter.nurse@dowjones.com) 0738 GMT [Dow Jones] Investec (INVP.LN) should be attractive to both growth and value investors, says Numis Securities, after what Investec called a "satisfactory" first fiscal quarter. Numis keeps a buy rating and 606p price target, saying the group's earnings have been "substantially more resilient than all the major U.K. focused banks through the credit crunch," and that its post-tax return on equity should reach 20% next year. Shares -0.6% at 504p, in a lower London market. (margot.patrick@dowjones.com) 0709 GMT [Dow Jones] Rentokil Initial's (RTO.LN) 1H results are ahead of expectations, says Seymour Pierce. Says good progress has been made on cost savings with Rentokil achieving GBP40M of savings in the period, on track to meet its FY10 GBP75M target. Adds that customer retention is reported to be improving across the group. "While the costs performance has been strong against a weak comparative, these results confirm that there is still a long way to go before a recovery can be announced," it says. "The main problem is how to get revenue growth without impairing service levels," adds brokerage. Has a sell rating and 100p target price. Shares -2.7% at 104p. (ishaq.siddiqi@dowjones.com) 0659 GMT [Dow Jones] Shore Capital upgrades PartyGaming (PRTY.LN) to hold from sell following the announcement of its plan to merge with Bwin (BWIN.VI). This deal is highly attractive and could provide significant future earnings accretion, says Shore. However, there remains some transaction risk and the shares may drift post this announcement until completion, thus the hold rating rather than a buy, says Shore. Still, the merger is transformation not only for PartyGaming, but the industry as a whole, says Shore. Shares closed Thursday at 309.5p. (peter.nurse@dowjones.com) 0644 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS downgrades Bovis Homes Group (BVS.LN) to neutral from buy in a review of UK housebuilders's stocks. Despite consistent improvement in all key housebuilding company metrics in 2010, the sector has underperformed by 16% year-to-date, giving back all the outperformance in 2009. "We do not think that this primarily reflects risks to house prices or the impact of government austerity measures, but [it reflects] the stalling of mortgage approvals at circa 50,000 per month and the consequent risk over the timing/quantum of normalized returns," adds UBS. Bovis shares closed Thursday at 348p. (ishaq.siddiqi@dowjones.com) 0629 GMT [Dow Jones] TalkTalk's (TALK.LN) 1Q results "look fine" and broadly in line with expectations, says Evolution Securities analyst Steve Malcolm. 1Q revenue of GBP444M is GBP1 million above consensus, while broadband average revenue per user is 4p below consensus, he notes. "If there is any criticism at all, or any niggles, it is just that the mix between the B2B and the consumer business is probably a little bit more skewed towards B2B," he adds. The group has said it is on track to deliver its fiscal 2011 guidance, Malcolm says. The deal with Vodafone (VOD.LN) was "widely expected", Malcolm retains. He retains a buy rating on TalkTalk and 161p target price. Stock closed at 123p Thursday. (lilly.vitorovich@dowjones.com) Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9288 Markettalk.eu@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires July 30, 2010 05:47 ET (09:47 GMT)
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