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UPDATE 1-Bank of England's King says time to review inflation remit

Tue, 22nd Jan 2013 22:34

* King says may need to give more guidance on CPI goal

* Remarks come after Fed, Bank of Canada change tack

* Bank open to more asset purchases but no panacea

* "Gentle recovery", above-target CPI seen for 2013

By Padraic Halpin and David Milliken

BELFAST, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of England'sinflation-targeting remit needs to be fine-tuned but should notundergo fundamental change, central bank governor Mervyn Kingsaid in a speech on Tuesday.

He also said that the central bank was ready to restart bondpurchases or cut interest rates if needed to boost the economy,but that Britain needed more fundamental reforms if it was toexceed the "gentle recovery" he expects for 2013.

King steps down in June, and his successor Mark Carney, headof the Bank of Canada, has promoted long-term commitments to lowrates, which are also in favour at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

To date the Bank of England has been unenthusiastic aboutexplicit interest rate commitments, arguing its existing policyframework is clearer than other central banks'.

And finance minister George Osborne, who ultimately decidesthe bank's goals, said last month that while he welcomed debate,there would need to be a strong case for change.

However, in what is likely to be his last speech to bedelivered outside London, King said that it was time for theBank and the government to think again.

"Recent actions by central banks and governments in a numberof industrialised countries have raised questions about theframeworks within which monetary policy is being conducted," hesaid. "In the UK ... it would be sensible to review thearrangements for setting monetary policy," King said.

The changes King appears to have in mind are small, and SamTombs, a UK economist at Capital Economics, said his remarks mayhave been aimed at forestalling calls for bigger changes.

"King used his speech to pour cold water on recent clamoursfor a change in the monetary policy framework and ... emphasisedthe merits and successes of the current regime.

"However, he conceded that the current framework could bereformed ... (and) perhaps hinted that he is open to the Bankmirroring the U.S. Fed's recent guidance," he said.

In the text of his speech, King referred to the Fed'sdecision to state levels to which unemployment would probablyneed to fall to before it started to raise interest rates.

"Is there a gain from trying to quantify how the (Bank's)Monetary Policy Committee should manage the trade-off betweengrowth and inflation in the short run?," King asked.

"How much discretion to give to the MPC and how much shouldremain with the Chancellor is an interesting question that wasraised, but not fully resolved, in 1997," he said, referring tothe date when the BoE gained operational independence.

King said Osborne may want to be more explicit about howfast the central bank is expected to return inflation to target.

INFLATION OVERSHOOT

Inflation has been above its 2 percent goal since December2009, and King said he expected it to remain so for most of2013. The central bank's forecasts do not see it firmly back at2 percent until the second half of 2014.

This is in line with the bank's current interpretation ofits mandate, under which it sets monetary policy to getinflation to 2 percent within 2-3 years.

In his comments about the more immediate outlook for Britishmonetary policy, King left his options open, though his remarksare unlikely to change economists' expectations that the centralbank will not add to its 375 billion pounds ($595 billion) ofasset purchases any time soon.

"We are ready to provide more stimulus if it is needed,"King said, adding the bank would continue to assess whether tocut interest rates again, something it has resisted since March2009 lest it hurt fragile banks or building societies.

Although inflation was likely to remain above target formost of 2013, the MPC could look past this while it was drivenby semi-regulated prices such as university tuition fees ratherthan market-generated price rises, King said.

Nonetheless, more asset purchases or rate cuts would not beenough to get Britain's economy back on track.

"Relying on generalised monetary stimulus alone ... is not apanacea," King said.

Britain's economy shrank about 6 percent in the 2008-09financial crisis, and has recovered much more slowly than itspeers. Growth in the last three months of 2012 was likely tohave been "considerably weaker" than in the previous quarter,continuing a trend of zig-zagging growth rates, King said.

A more solid recovery required three things, King said,citing supply-side reforms, stronger euro zone growth andrestructuring Britain's banks.

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Friday 10 May 
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A full 21-day events calendar is provided each day with a subscription to Alliance News UK Professional.
  
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