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Pin to quick picksLloyds Share News (LLOY)

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Share Price: 52.18
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Scotland risk fails to derail shares as vote looms

Fri, 29th Aug 2014 13:45

* Exposed stocks performing broadly in line with wider index

* Investors reluctant to make equity trades around outcome

* Scotland accounts for 2 pct of FTSE 350 revenue-Barclays

By Tricia Wright and Vincent Flasseur

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - With only weeks to go beforeScotland votes on independence, the stock market is shruggingoff the impact of a potential break-up of the United Kingdom asinvestors adopt a wait-and-see attitude rather than seekprotection.

This is as much a reflection of the marginal exposure of UKstocks to Scotland, with only 12 companies on the FTSE 350 indexbased north of the border, as it is about investors' belief thatScots will prove the pollsters right and vote not to split.

The performance of stocks headquartered in Scotland -excluding listed investment trusts - has more or less trackedthe broader FTSE 350 since Oct. 15, 2012, the date of theEdinburgh Agreement on the terms for a referendum on Scottishindependence, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

The basket of stocks including insurer Standard Life,soft-drink group AG Barr and engineering firm Weir Group is up 17.6 percent in that time, compared with a 19.5percent gain for the FTSE 350.

Several polls have shown support for independence pushinghigher, but the most recent "poll of polls", on Aug. 15, whichwas based on an average of the last six polls and excludedundecided respondents, found support for a breakaway stood at 43percent against 57 percent for remaining within Britain.

Investors said the impact of a "yes" vote on Sept. 18 washard to quantify and therefore hard to trade around, evendisregarding the probability of the outcome.

"There is too much uncertainty to do anything concrete aboutit in terms of trading strategies," Veronika Pechlaner, head ofglobal equities at Ashburton, said.

Strategists and analysts warn that a "yes" vote could meanbig changes ahead for some companies.

Banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds have already said that an independent Scotland couldhave a significant impact on compliance costs, taxes and creditratings, and Scotland's asset-management industry would also beexposed.

It could also leave a bitter taste for top whisky producerDiageo - Scotch whisky is Scotland's second-largestexport industry after oil and gas, according to Barclays.

On the other hand, a beneficiary of independence could bethe transport industry, as the "Yes" campaign has pledged tohalve air-passenger tax.

But even taking into account the variety of possiblescenarios, it is hard to avoid the fact that estimated FTSE 350revenues that come directly from Scotland are around 2 percentof the total - perhaps too small to trade on.

"It's certainly something that (clients) are interested in...(but) I wouldn't say there's a lot of action taking place,"said Ian Scott, strategist at Barclays.

Listed companies with Scottish headquarters includetemporary power provider Aggreko and bus and trainoperator FirstGroup.

Scotland-based broker Speirs & Jeffrey said that there wereno trading strategies in place to prepare for the referendum butthat they had opened bank accounts in England and sent outletters to their clients informing them of contingency measures. (Reporting by Tricia Wright; Graphic by Vincent Flasseur;Editing by Lionel Laurent and Alison Williams)

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