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LONDON MIDDAY BRIEFING: Glaxo Slashes Shareholder Payout Plans

Wed, 06th May 2015 11:41

LONDON (Alliance News) - GlaxoSmithKline Wednesday slashed the payout that it was promising shareholders in the wake of its recent deal with Novartis and said it would only maintain its dividend for the next three years, saying it wants to retain financial flexibility as it faces a potential hit to one of its best-selling drugs and could be forced by partners to invest further in its ViiV Healthcare and Consumer Healthcare businesses.

The pharmaceutical giant said it will now payout about GBP1 billion to shareholders as a special dividend for the Novartis deal, while keeping its ordinary dividend flat at the 2014 level of 80 pence between 2015 and 2017.

As it set out its growth targets for the next five years in the wake of the Novartis deal, Glaxo also said it has opted to retain its existing holding in its HIV joint venture ViiV Healthcare, citing the positive outlook for the business. It had previously been mulling an initial public offering for a minority stake in the venture.

For 2015 it expects to see its core earnings per share decline at a percentage rate in the high teens on a constant currency basis, mostly due to pricing pressure on Advair in the US and Europe, and the dilutive effect of the deal with Novartis.

For the first quarter to end-March the company posted a pretax profit of GBP9.92 billion, up from GBP903 million a year before, due to a big one-off GBP8.71 billion gain from its three part deal with Novartis. Revenue rose to GBP5.62 billion from GBP5.61 billion a year before.

However, it expects to see core earnings per share recover significantly in 2016, with percentage growth expected to reach double digits at constant currency rates as the adverse impacts seen in 2015 begin to diminish, and it begins to see the sales and synergy benefits of the Novartis deal.

It expects core earnings per share to grow at a compound annual growth rate of mid-to-high single digits on a constant currency basis over the five year period between 2016 and 2020. It expects revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of low-to-mid single digits over the same period at constant currency.

Glaxo said it has accelerated the cost savings programme associated with the Novartis deal, and is now is looking to produce over half the total synergies of GBP1 billion in 2016 rather than in 2017, and to complete the programme by the end of 2017 rather than in 2019.

It expects to produce total yearly benefits of GBP3 billion from a combination of restructuring and synergy programmes by the end of 2017.

J Sainsbury joined bigger rival Tesco in reporting a loss for its last financial year as it booked property impairments due to its scaled-back expansion plans and as it counted the cost of the price cuts it's being forced to make as the sector responds to the challenge of the German discounters and changing UK shopping habits.

The UK's third-largest retailer has been the best-performing of the three listed supermarket groups in the last few years, and the scale of its loss was nowhere near that of Tesco. However, the fact that Sainsbury's is now also in the red shows the extent to which the country's main grocers are suffering as shoppers increasingly do smaller, cheaper shops, and after the challenge of Aldi and Lidl caused a price war in the broader sector, driving down prices.

Kantar Worldpanel, which takes snapshots of the industry every 12 weeks, said a typical basket of everyday items is now 2.1% cheaper that it was in 2014, as it reported lower till rolls and lower market share for all four of the major supermarkets in its latest 12 week survey period. Sainsbury's till roll actually declined the least compared with Tesco, Wm Morrison Supermarkets and Asda, in that period, down 0.2%.

However, till roll is only one aspect of a supermarket's performance, and Sainsbury's reported a pretax loss of GBP72 million for the year to March 14, compared with a profit of GBP898 million a year earlier, as it booked a charge of GBP287 million to account for sites that it will no longer develop and a GBP341 million charge for stores that are unprofitable or only slightly profitable.

Excluding GBP753 million of charges that also included GBP15 million of restructuring costs, its underlying pretax profit fell to GBP681 million from GBP798 million as sales declined to GBP26.1 billion from GBP26.4 billion.

In November, Chief Executive Mike Coupe revealed his strategy to invest GBP150 million a year in price cuts for the next three years, resulting in price reductions in over 1,100 products. Sainsbury's Wednesday said it has seen a 6% improvement in sales volume following its price cuts, which it believes will put it ahead of its competitors.

However, Sainsbury's executives reiterated that they think the UK grocery market has changed forever, and the price deflation that's eating into industry profits will continue for some time.

“The underlying pressures of the industry will remain from a deflation point of view and therefore we would expect that the underlying sales growth of the industry will be negative for the foreseeable future,” Chief Financial Officer John Rogers told journalists, adding that the company doesn't expect to make further property impairments.

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Markets: UK stocks are trading broadly higher, following better-than-expected Purchasing Managers' Index scores from the eurozone and the UK. Oil prices continue to push to new 2015 highs, driven by continued fears of supply disruptions in Libya.

US stock futures point to a broadly higher open on Wall Street, with the DJIA indicated up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 flat.

FTSE 100: up 0.2% at 6,944.29
FTSE 250: flat at 17,445.26
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 0.1% at 752.49
GBP: up at USD1.5214
EUR: up at USD1.1224
GOLD: down at USD1,190.46 an ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD68.92 a barrel
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Other Top Corporate News
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Imperial Tobacco reported lower operating profit for the first half of its financial year as total tobacco volume declined, partly due to reduced sales in Iraq, but its results improved excluding the impact of a stock optimisation programme it undertook last year, partly thanks to price increases and growth for its key brands. The company reported an operating profit of GBP959 million for the six months to the end of March, down from GBP978 million a year earlier, as revenue declined to GBP12.13 billion from GBP12.63 billion on the back of a 1% decline in total tobacco volume to 138.2 billion.
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Irish building materials company CRH predicted strong growth in operating earnings in the first half of 2015 and further growth in the second half, even when its expected acquisition of business from Lafarge and Holcim are excluded, as it got off to a "satisfactory" start to the year. In a statement, the company said it expects to deliver growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of close to 10% on a constant currency basis in the first half of the year and then "further progress" in the more important second half of the year.
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The Sage Group said it remains on track to meet its financial targets for its current financial year, as revenue rose 6.5% in the first half. The company is targeting 6% organic revenue growth and 28% operating margin in the year as a whole. In the half year to end-March, the company posted a pretax profit of GBP172.6 million, up from GBP170.9 million a year before, as revenue rose to GBP699.2 million from GBP656.5 million. Sage proposed an interim dividend of 4.45 pence, up from 4.12 pence a year before.
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Aerospace engineer GKN said sales rose 1% in the first quarter of 2015, as a benefit from the strengthening of the US dollar against sterling was largely offset by disposals, and its trading margin was also up thanks to the exchange rate movement boost. In a trading update, the maker of wings and parts for Airbus aircraft said its main markets performed in line with expectations in the three months to end-March, with its automotive business continuing to outperform, its aerospace unit meeting the company's hopes, while its Land Systems business continued to face challenging agricultural markets in North America.
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Prudential said it has been hurt by low interest rates as it reported a fall in first-quarter new business profit, with growth in Asia more than offset by declines in the US and the UK. Prudential said new business profit fell to GBP496 million in the three months ended March 31, compared with GBP526 million in the corresponding period of the prior year. Prudential said its Asian platform is an "engine of genuine profitable growth at a time when this is increasingly at a premium".
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Direct Line Insurance Group said it is in a good position to meet the goals it has set for 2015, even as the insurer reported lower gross written premium for the first quarter. The home and motor insurer said that gross written premium for its continuing operations fell to GBP746.5 million in the three months ended March 31, compared with GBP753.3 million in the corresponding quarter of the prior year. Premium from motor, home and commercial business was down, partly offset by higher premium from rescue and other personal lines of business.
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Legal & General Group said its first-quarter cash generation increased, driven by growth in its stock of assets. In a statement, the group said that net cash generation was GBP326 million in the three months ended March 31, compared with GBP301 million in the corresponding quarter of the prior year.
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Intu Properties said its key operating metrics have been stable so far in 2015, with footfall in its retail properties unchanged and occupancy falling to 94% from 95% reflecting seasonal patterns. The retail property investor said it was seeing a continued improvement in retailer demand, with 44 new long-term leases agreed in the weeks from the start of the year to May 6 for GBP7 million in new annual rent, 10% above previous passing rent and in line with valuation assumptions.
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HSBC Holdings said it has struck a deal to sell its UK probate services business to Simplify Channel Ltd for an undisclosed amount. HSBC will sell the HSBC Trust Co (UK) Ltd business, a subsidiary of its HSBC Bank PLC unit, to probate services firm Simplify, with up to 73 employees in the unit to move to Simplify as part of the deal. In addition to the sale, HSBC Trust Co has entered into a referral deal with Simplify for UK customers needing probate support.
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JD Wetherspoon said like-for like sales in the 13 weeks to April 26 increased by 1.7%, while total sales were up by 5.8%, while its operating margin was 7.5%, compared with 8.0% in the corresponding period of the prior year. It expects its operating margin to be in the region of 7.3% to 7.7% for the full-year ending in July. Investec said the like-for-like sales and operating margin beat its expectations.
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SuperGroup reported growth in sales for the fourth quarter of its financial year and in the full year as a whole and said it expects its underlying profit for the year to meet previous guidance. The retailer reported revenue for the 15 weeks to April 25 of GBP134.8 million, up from GBP113.8 million in the same period the year before, while revenue for the full financial year grew 12.5% to GBP484.7 million from GBP430.9 million. SuperGroup said the strong performance within its retail division was sustained, following "clearance activity" in the third quarter, and benefited from softer comparatives.
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AIM Movers
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Xrtract Resources shares have risen after it said concentrate gold grades at the Chepica mine in Chile have increased ten-fold following the start of surface mining at the site, with revenue set to increase significantly in May thanks to sales of the concentrate. It said gold concentrate grades at the site have been increased to more than 400 grams per tonne, from 40 grams per tonne previously, with copper and silver values both remaining stable.
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Top Economics And General
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The British services sector grew the most in eight months in April, led by marked gains in new business, which prompted firms to continue with robust pace of job creation, survey results from Markit Economics revealed. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector rose to 59.5 from 58.9 in March. Economists had expected a score of 58.5. A PMI reading above 50 suggests expansion in the sector. The latest reading was the highest since August last year and the British services sector has now expanded for 28 months in a row, which is the longest sequence of growth in seven years.
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Shop prices in the UK were down 1.9% on year in April, the British Retail Consortium said. That missed forecasts for a decline of 1.7% following the 2.1% contraction in March. Food prices were down 0.9% on year in April for the second straight month, while non-food prices fell an annual 2.5% after losing 2.8% in the previous month.
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The National Institute of Economic and Social Research downgraded its growth outlook for the UK ahead of the general election. The think tank forecast 2.5% economic growth this year, which was weaker than the 2.9% projected in February. For 2016, the think tank estimated 2.4% growth. Although growth weakened in the first quarter of 2015, the institute said it is likely to be a temporary deceleration and growth would rebound through the remainder of this year. This will be driven largely by consumer spending, supported by the positive terms of trade effect.
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Tory leader David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband have both started preparing to broker deals in the next few days amid polls suggesting the Tories will narrowly emerge as the party with the most seats after the election on Thursday but will fall short of a majority, meaning a coalition with another party is the most likely ultimate outcome. Cameron is understood to have ordered policy chief Oliver Letwin to work up a deal with the Liberal Democrats to secure a second coalition government agreement between the two, amid warnings from Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg that his party will not be part of government that advocates Britain's withdrawal from the European Union. The Tories have pledged to hold an in-out referendum on Britain's EU membership should the party win a majority.
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The Conservatives appear to have a narrow lead going into the final day of campaigning, though the majority of polls still have the UK General Election too close to call 24 hours before voting is set to begin. The latest ComRes poll for the Daily Mail and ITV News has the Tories leading by three points, having gained two points since the last phone poll conducted by the company a week ago. The Tories are on 35%, with Labour losing a point since the last poll to sit at 32%. The two main parties remain neck-and-neck in the daily YouGov/The Sun and in the latest FT/Populus polls. Both have the pair locked at 34%. The Financial Times' national seat projections, providing by university research group Election Forecast, still has the Tories winning the most seats, at 281, with Labour set to win 266. Securing a majority requires 326 seats.
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Ireland's service sector activity expanded for the thirty-third successive month in April, while the rate of output price inflation quickened to the sharpest since June 2002, data from Markit Economics showed. The Investec services purchasing managers' index fell slightly to 60.6 in April from 60.9 in the prior month. New orders increased for the thirty-third consecutive month in April and at a sharper pace. New export orders also climbed in April, thought at the slowest rate since May 2013. Respondents indicated that the UK had been a key driver of growth in new export orders.
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The services sector in China expanded at an accelerated pace in April, the latest survey from HSBC showed on Wednesday, with a PMI score of 52.9. That's up from 52.3 in March.
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A EUR200 million debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund will be made Wednesday as scheduled, Greek Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas told the Mega television broadcaster. However, he cautioned that pulling together another EUR756 million payment due next Tuesday would be more difficult. The government is investigating whether it can pull the sum together by tapping pension funds. Such a move would be another attempt by the cash-strapped nation to pull together sufficient funds to operate, amid fears that it could soon go bankrupt.
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German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, played down expectations that a breakthrough in Greece's economic crisis will materialize at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers next week. Their statements came as Athens embarked on a diplomatic push ahead of deadlines for two Greek payments to the International Monetary Fund. Greece has been trying to access EUR7.2 billion remaining in its bailout. But Schaeuble told foreign correspondents in Berlin that a prerequisite deal with its creditors is unlikely before the eurozone ministers' meeting on Monday. "I am at the moment...somewhat sceptical about whether this will happen before Monday, but I do not rule it out," Schaeuble said.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in BST)

12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
13:15 US ADP Employment Change
13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity/Labor Costs Preliminary
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
18:30 US Fed's Lockhart speech
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Thursday's UK Corporate Events

Aviva - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Wm Morrison Supermarkets - Interim Management Statement
Telecity - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Beazley - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Esure Group - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels - Q1 Results
Provident Financial Group - Interim Management Statement
EasyJet - April Traffic Statistics
BT Group - Q4 Results
RSA Insurance - Q1 Interim Management Statement
Trinity Mirror - Trading Statement
Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate - Q1 Interim Management Statement
IMI - Interim Management Statement
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Thursday's Key Economic Events (all times in BST)

All Day UK Parliamentary Election
02:35 Japan Markit Services PMI
07:00 Germany Factory Orders
07:45 France Industrial Output
07:45 France Trade Balance
n/a UK Halifax House Prices
12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage change
20:00 US Consumer Credit Change
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Contact: +44 207 199 0340; newsroom@alliancenews.com; @AllNewsTeam

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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