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LONDON MIDDAY BRIEFING: Shares Firm As UK Election Draws Near

Tue, 07th Apr 2015 11:22

LONDON (Alliance News) - UK share prices are benefiting as the prospect of a US interest rate hike recedes beyond the summer, but as London returns to work after the long Easter break, the UK general election on May 7 looms ever closer.

The Conservatives and Labour are broadly level-pegging a month before the election, according to polls published over the weekend, while no clear winner emerged from the seven-way debate held on Thursday night.

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll has the Conservatives leading Labour by a point, at 34% compared to Labour's 33%, though both parties lost ground to UKIP and the Liberal Democrats. UKIP's support rose to 13% from 12% in the YouGov/The Sun poll published last week, while the Liberal Democrats rose to 10% from 7%.

An Opinium poll for The Observer found the two main parties in a dead heat, however, with the Conservatives and Labour at 33%. The Tories dropped a percentage point from the same poll published the weekend before, while Labour remained flat. UKIP rose one point to 14% while the Liberal Democrats fell one point to 7%, putting them level with the Greens.

Meanwhile, Tony Blair entered the UK election battle, as the Conservatives and Labour traded blows on the impact of tax changes which came into force this week and Chancellor George Osborne refused to rule out a cut to the top rate of income tax. Blair, the former Labour prime minister, warned the UK will face a period of instability not seen since the Second World War should a Conservative victory result in a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.
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Markets: UK and European stock indices are trading higher, as the worse-than-expected US nonfarm payroll figures last Friday suggested that an interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve may be later than many market analysts had predicted. The pound initially rose against the dollar after PMI data showed a better-than-expected expansion in the UK service sector in March, but retreated soon afterwards. Futures indicate Wall Street for a slightly higher open, with the DJIA and S&P 500 both pointed up 0.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 is expected to open up 0.2%.

FTSE 100: up 1.5% at 6,938.27
FTSE 250: up 1.3% at 17,494.24
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 0.7% at 719.97
GBP-USD: down at 1.4886
EUR-USD: down at 1.0860
GOLD: down at USD1,210.24 an ounce
OIL (Brent): down at USD57.69 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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Rio Tinto said it has completed the off-market buy-back tender of Rio Tinto Ltd shares, increasing the total buyback to AUD560 million due to strong demand. The FTSE 100-listed Anglo-Australian miner said the buyback, which was increased to AUD560 million from AUD500 million, was made at AUD48.44 per share, a 14% discount to the market price. Rio Tinto Ltd bought back a total of 11.6 million shares. The on-market buy-back of Rio Tinto PLC shares, due to continue until the end of the year, will total approximately USD1.58 billion, the company said. So far, it has repurchased a total of USD189 million worth of shares.
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ITV is understood to be in talks to acquire the television arm of film production company The Weinstein Co in a deal that would be worth up to USD950 million, The Times reported. The deal, if completed, would include an upfront payment of up to USD400 million, the paper said, citing reports in The Hollywood Reporter, with further payments based on future growth to potentially double the total consideration.
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Shire announced that it has reached an agreement with the US Food and Drug Administration on a clear regulatory path for SHP465, an investigational oral stimulant medication being evaluated as a potential treatment for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder or ADHD in adults. Shire said it has agreed with the FDA to conduct a short-term efficacy and safety study in pediatric patients with ADHD. While Shire intends to pursue an adult indication, the FDA is requesting this additional pediatric data to better understand the potential effects of SHP465 on children with ADHD in the event of use in this population.
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Micro Focus International confirmed its guidance for the full year and updated on the integration plans for The Attachmate Group, with plans to restructure its divisions and cut jobs. Micro Focus maintained its pro-forma full-year revenue guidance of USD1.33 billion and its combined pro-forma underlying adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation guidance of USD500 million, saying it has continued to trade in line with its expectations since the turn of the year on a constant currency basis. The company also said it will shift its structure following the Attachmate acquisition, with one team to be dedicated to its SUSE enterprise server business and the remainder of its product portfolio to be managed under a single division headed by Chief Operating Officer Stephen Murdoch.
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Vedanta Resources said its Cairn India subsidiary has filed a writ petition in New Delhi against the tax demand issued against the company by Indian tax authorities. Cairn India received an order from the Indian Income Tax Department in March for an alleged failure to deduct withholding tax on alleged capital gains arising in 2006-7, when the company was owned by Cairn UK Holdings Ltd, a subsidiary of Cairn Energy.
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Ryanair Holdings said its traffic increased year-on-year in March and said its load factor rose by 10 percentage points. The Irish budget carrier said its traffic increased to 6.67 million customers in March, up 28% from the 5.2 million customers it carried a year earlier. The company said its rolling annual traffic to March grew 11% to 90.5 million. Ryanair said its load factor also improved significantly in the month year-on-year, up to 90% from 80% a year ago.
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Flybe Group said it expects to report full-year results in line with market expectations following a return to growth in the final quarter of its financial year to the end of March. The European regional carrier said it expects to be around breakeven on its adjusted pretax profit, excluding the GBP26 million cost of its Embraer E195 jets and any impact from US dollar loan revaluation. But the adjusted pretax profit would include the GBP10 million writedown on its Finland joint venture and the GBP6 million provision made on flight delays. The company said it delivered 15% additional capacity in the fourth quarter, with load factors held flat amid similar 15% passenger growth. Overall, revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 5%.
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AIM Movers
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Wildhorse Energy, up 130%. The company's shares listed in London surged after it said its shares listed on the Australian Stock Exchange have been suspended pending the potential acquisition of a resource project. Amara Mining, up 11%. The gold miner with operations in Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso and the Ivory Coast said its pretax loss narrowed in 2014 on reduced costs and no impairments, and said it is fully funded until 2016 as it continues to advance its flagship Yaoure gold project in the Ivory Coast. It reported a pretax loss of USD7.9 million for the year ended December 31, compared to a USD11.2 million loss in 2013.

Frontera Resources, off 15% at 0.930p. Shares in the company are down after it raised funds to reduce its corporate debt through a draw down on the company's standby equity distribution agreement with YA Global Master, its loan provider. The company said it has reduced its corporate debt after repaying USD1.3 million to YA Global, in accordance with the company's loan agreement. Following the repayment, Frontera's outstanding corporate debt under the agreement stands at USD2.3 million. Frontera issued 88.5 million shares to YA Global at a price of GBP0.009606 per share to repay the debt.
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Top Economics And General
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The UK services sector grew at the fastest pace in seven months in March, led by strong gains in new business, survey data from Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply showed. The Markit/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector climbed to 58.9 from February's 56.7. It was the strongest growth in activity since August last year. Economists had expected a score of 57. A PMI reading above 50 suggest growth in activity.
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UK economic growth held steady in the three months to the end of March and is expected to gather momentum in the coming quarter, the Confederation of British Industry said. The CBI's Growth Indicator, a survey of 764 businesses in the UK, showed an overall reading of +18% for the three months to March, meaning private sector growth was nearly unchanged from the +19% measurement shown in the three months to the end of February. But the CBI said businesses expect UK growth to strengthen in coming months, with the balance of expectations for growth in the three months from April to June at +25%. This will be driven by a pick-up in business and professional and consumer services activity in the manufacturing sector, the CBI said.
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Eurozone producer prices logged the first monthly increase in five months in February, data from Eurostat showed. Industrial producer prices for the domestic market rose 0.5% from January, when they fell 1.1%, which was revised from 0.9% fall. The latest increase was the first since September last year, when prices climbed 0.2%.
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The International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Sunday welcomed Greece's commitment to make the loan payment due this week. She held informal talks with the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on the Greek government's reform program. Greece is due to repay an IMF instalment of EUR460 million on Thursday. There were concerns ahead of the talks that the government may chose to meet its pension and wage obligations over the loan repayment.
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Employment in the US rose by much less than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday. The report said non-farm payroll employment rose by 126,000 jobs in March following a downwardly revised increase of 264,000 jobs in February. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 245,000 jobs compared to the addition of 295,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate held at a six-year low of 5.5% in March, unchanged from February and in line with economist estimates.
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Growth in the US services sector slowed in March for the first time this year, according to the results of an industry survey released on Monday. A slowdown in production contributed to the decreased pace of growth, though March also saw a pick up in new orders. Prices and employment expanded in the month as well. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing activity came in at 56.5 for March. This was down from the level of 56.9 seen in the previous month.
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India's central bank maintained status quo at its first bi-monthly review as it awaits to see the transmission of previous rate cuts to real lending rates and vowed to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance going forward. The Reserve Bank of India, governed by Raghuram Rajan, decided to retain its repo rate at 7.50% and the reverse repo rate at 6.50%. The bank reduced its key rates by 25 basis points each in January and March in unscheduled sessions. The repo rate is the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks and the reverse repo rate is the rate at which it accepts deposits from banks.
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Australia's central bank left its key rate unchanged for the second straight meeting, but hinted at further monetary easing over the period ahead to boost growth. The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia led by Governor Glenn Stevens maintained its key rate at 2.25% as policymakers judged that it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being. The bank last reduced the rate by a quarter point in February. Further easing may be appropriate over the period ahead in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target, the bank said in a statement after the meeting.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in BST)

13:50 US Fed Minneapolis's Narayana Kocherlakota speech
13:55 US Redbook index
15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
16:00 US JOLTS Job Openings
20:00 US Consumer Credit Change
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Wednesday's Key UK Corporate Events

EasyJet - March Traffic Statistics
IAG - March Traffic Statistics
Robert Walters - Q1 Interim Management Statement
WS Atkins - Trading Update
Amerisur Resources - Full Year Results
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Wednesday's Key Economic Events (all times in BST)

Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
UK Halifax House Prices
06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey
07:00 Germany Factory Orders
07:45 France Trade Balance
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index
10:00 EU Retail Sales
10:30 UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey
12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
14:30 US Fed's William Dudley speech
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks
19:00 US FOMC Minutes
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Contact: +44 207 199 0340; newsroom@alliancenews.com; @AllNewsTeam

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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