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Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com) and
Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London and Stefano Rebaudo
(stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreuters.com) in Milan.
LOW COST CARRIERS STILL THE BEST PICK (0945 GMT)
At the beginning it was a rout for airline shares due to lockdown measures across the world,
then a strong rebound as Europe decided to gradually ease travel restrictions. Now one of the
big questions is what has been priced in.
Today the sector is still in the spotlight with easyJet among the winners of the
STOXX 600 index, after saying it will cut up to 30% of its staff and that an equity
raising is not planned, at least for now.
According to a Morgan Stanley research note, comparing market cap change, year to date, with
the monthly cash burn, Ryanair and Wizz are still pricing in over 12 months of
full grounding, while Lufthansa and Air France just 3 months.
So low cost operators are still the best pick, although they have been the best performers
in the sector year-to-date, the investment bank says.
There is a "better risk reward in Ryanair and Wizz," while if the "recovery is faster than
our estimates, easyJet could be an attractive investment option too," it adds.
A different story for Lufthansa and AirFrance-KLM because they have
bigger exposure to long haul routes and corporate demand, which will be slower to recover. Then
they will need "profound restructuring to repay government loans."
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRAVEL AND LEISURE, WHAT ELSE? (0732 GMT)
Once again, Travel and Leisure stocks are leading what looks like another risk-on session of
this recent "rally of hope".
While the STOXX 600 is rising 0.7%, the sector is up well above one percent with Cineworld,
who currently operates empty movie theaters, up a whopping 19%!
The company has secured an additional $110 million from lenders and a waiver on loan
covenants and looks to reopen all its cinemas in July.
Airlines are also enjoying big gains with Easyjet up 4% after announcing massive job cuts.
Investors aren't spooked by doubts surrounding Lufthansa's $10 billion government bailout
after the German airline's supervisory board refused to accept the conditions attached by
Brussels.
It's up 2.7% and peers Ryanair and BA owner IAG are rising 1.7% and 2.1% respectively.
Worth to note that telecoms are also having a good start with Proximus leading the sector
with a 3.5% rise after an upgrade from Citigroup.
Here's a snapshot of the market action in the Travel and Leisure sector:
(Julien Ponthus)
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ON THE RADAR: EASYJET, AND A BIG SMELL OF COFFEE! (0642 GMT)
The airline industry is on the front page this morning with a big announcement from
EasyJet which said it planned to cut up to 30% of its staff and shrink its fleet to cope to from
the collapse in air travel due to the coronavirus.
Another bid headline is doubts surrounding Lufthansa's $10 billion government bailout after
the German airline's supervisory board refused to accept the conditions attached by Brussels.
Still in the industry, Norwegian Air announced a wider loss in the first quarter, days after
completing a financial rescue in which creditors took control of the carrier.
But for those who would be rattled by these headlines, others would say it's time to wake up
and smell the coffee.
Yet more evidence that equity capital markets are alive and kicking in the time of COVID-19.
JDE Peet, the world's No. 2 maker of packaged coffee has decided to bring forward to Friday
its IPO due to popular demand, proving that it's feasible to raise cash amid what's probably the
worst recession in lifetime. This is serious money as well: the company aims to raise 2.3
billion euros.
On a smaller scale and for a trickier sector, British office space provider IWG wants to
raise about 315 million pounds through new shares to benefit from future demand for flexible
workspace amid the coronavirus crisis.
British cinema operator Cineworld also secured an additional $110 million from lenders and a
waiver on loan covenants as the company looks to reopen all its cinemas in July.
On the M&A front, a possible cross-atlantic deal with FedEx Corp reportedly close to taking
a stake in German parcel delivery firm Hermes. Seems a reasonnable move as the industry is one
of the big gainers in these times of pandemic with home deliveries surging.
There seems to be no shortage of cash to finance big deals either. Banks offered to lend
Telefonica 9 billion euros for the planned O2-Virgin merger, the Spanish newspaper Expansion
reported. The amount offered by 32 lenders is twice as much as the 4.5 billion euros requested
by the company.
Of course, the fact that deals and IPOs haven't collapsed like in 2008 doesn't mean this is
a golden age for investment bankers.
Daniel Pinto, head of JPMorgan's corporate and investment banking division said fees in the
second quarterd for mergers and acquisitions will be "probably 15-20% down."
On the bright side though, pandemic market action means that second-quarter revenues for its
markets unit are on track to be up more than 50% higher than the same period last year.
(Julien Ponthus and Stefano Rebaudo)
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MORNING CALL: KEEPING THE FAITH IN THE "RALLY OF HOPE" (0540 GMT)
European stocks are set to open well into positive territory this morning as the recent
"rally of hope" shows that it not only has legs but also no shortage of followers keeping the
faith in a swift economic recovery.
Its army of believers have held the line on the S&P's 3,000 points on the Wall Street front
overnight and while U.S./China tensions over Hong Kong is testing the faith of Asian bourses,
Europe remains determined to reclaim levels unseen since the beginning of March.
As we stand now, the STOXX 600 is about 20% lower than its record close of February 19 and
23% higher than its March 16 bottom.
Having a look at the latest Reuters poll may nevertheless cause some faith wavering as the
consensus is that recovering from the coronavirus financial crash will take time with European
stocks expected to end 2021 around 10% below this February's record high.
Anyhow, here's some reading:
POLL-A long and winding road to recovery for European stocks
ANALYSIS-'Rally of hope': Why the S&P soared back past 3,000
And here's a chart to show where Europe stocks currently stand so far in the COVID-19
crisis:
(Julien Ponthus)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
