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* Wall Street opens lower, smallcaps weak
* Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.1%
* Dollar falls; gold, crude edge up
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.61%
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EUROPEAN AIRLINES: THE BALANCE SHEET DILEMMA (0930 EDT/1330
GMT)
When will Europeans fly again? The uncertainty over when air
travel can resume to normal levels is providing a headache for
CFOs in the industry.
As HSBC analysts note, many airlines will eventually need to
beef up their balance sheets but the resurgent pandemic means
the timing to do so and deploy capacity is more than tricky.
Looking into easyJet, the team at HSBC says "an
early move to raise equity would potentially offer peace of mind
in the event of extended travel restrictions, greater strategic
optionality and a quicker dilution of the founder Stelios
HajiIoannou, who has said he will not participate in any rights
issue".
Then again, moving before the expected bounce back could be
a costly choice for shareholders.
"An earlier capital raising would likely be more dilutive
than a later one when the recovery of aviation is clearer", they
note, stressing they expect demand to be robust once
restrictions are lifted.
At the moment, HSBC expects travel restrictions to ease and
capacity to rise late in May.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: GENERALS IN THE TRENCHES (0900 EDT/1300
GMT)
The Nasdaq Composite has rallied strongly so far in
April. The tech-laden index is up 6%, putting it on track for
its biggest monthly advance since November of last year.
However, since the Composite's February top, a measure of
internal strength, the Nasdaq daily Advance/Decline (A/D) line
, has been coiling in a contracting range, and is so far
failing to confirm the most recent push higher in the Composite:
Although IXIC ended Friday less than 0.4% from its February
12 record high close of 14,095.47, the A/D line is remains well
below its mid-March and early-February highs.
Ultimately, to add confidence in the sustainability of any
Nasdaq thrust into fresh record high territory, traders will
want to see the A/D line surpass its 2021 highs.
Of note, recent Nasdaq strength has no doubt been
underpinned by large-cap tech, the generals, outperforming
small-cap tech, the troops. Indeed, the Technology Select Sector
SPDR Fund is up around 7.5% this month, while NYSE
FANG+TM index has advanced around 8.5%. Meanwhile, the
Invesco S&P SmallCap Info Tech ETF is up just a little
over 3%.
Unless, broad market strength more resolutely returns, the
A/D line may remain on the back foot. In that event, the burden
on the generals in the trenches may grow more intense, leaving
their flanks especially exposed to a bearish counterattack.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
