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LIVE MARKETS-Late on your ECB homework? Here's ING's 'Angry Birds' cheat sheet

Thu, 08th Mar 2018 10:26

* European edge up * ECB meeting awaited * Results from Uniper, Akzo Nobel, Merck, JCDecaux LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - Welcome to the home for real time coverage of European equitymarkets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Helen Reid. Reach heron Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: helen.reid.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net LATE ON YOUR ECB HOMEWORK? HERE'S ING'S 'ANGRY BIRDS' CHEAT SHEET (1005 GMT) While there's absolutely no expectations for an ECB decision on interest rates today, focusis zoomed on Quantitative Easing and every word said on that matter will be thoroughlydissected. "The language that is speculated to be targeted on Thursday is the reference to the centralbank's readiness to increase the asset purchase program in size or duration if the outlookbecomes less favourable", said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. "While this was always a pointless line, the ECB has stuck by it and the removal of it is asmall acknowledgement that less dovish language in warranted", he added. Monetary normalisation is a complicated exercise for the ECB, notes CMC's Michael Hewson,who points out that "the data isn't moving its way. Inflation is falling back, with headline CPIat a one year low, the euro is rising and some of the recent data has been slightly softer oflate, and that’s before we even start to look at the current backdrop of Italian politics." To help you read through the ECB's statement (1245 GMT) and presser (1330 GMT), whichsometimes feels like kremlinology, here's ING's Angry Bird Dashboard. The cheat sheet's name 'Angry Birds' is a reference to the computer game and evokes the dovesand the hawks who live in 'peaceful coexistence' at the ECB's governing council. Here's an angry bird: (Julien Ponthus) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: STOXX INCHES UP (0819 GMT) European shares have opened slightly higher today, supported by some well-received earningupdates including from French utility Engie which surprised with a dividend increaseand a rally in Spanish builder ACS and Italian motorway company Atlantia afterthey reportedly agreed on an Abertis break-up deal, ending a takeover battle. Among top gainers were Britvic and Saab , both supported by upbeatbroker notes, while a disappointing update hit Boskalis. (Danilo Masoni) ***** WHAT'S ON THE RADAR AHEAD OF THE OPEN (0758 GMT) European shares are set to rise after the U.S. administration cooled investors’ trade warfears with more conciliatory talk of potential carve-outs from the new tariff regime. Investors in Europe await the ECB meeting, which Societe Generale analysts said was expectednot to yield any significant changes in tone, with the central bank taking care not to rock theboat amid jittery markets. Results continue to roll in from European corporates including Akzo Nobel, Merck, Uniper,JCDecaux, Hugo Boss and Aviva. Overall European corporates’ profit growth has so far outpacedthat of U.S. firms. Hugo Boss is indicated down up to 5 percent in pre-market indications with traders pointingto disappointing guidance. Countrywide is seen losing 10 percent or more, after aprofit warning. M&A developments could also create heat today: Renault shares are indicated down as much as 4 percent after France said it was not preparedto sell its stake to Nissan. (Helen Reid) ***** EARLY MORNING EUROPEAN HEADLINES ROUND UP (0742 GMT) Here are your top market-moving headlines this morning:Chinese competition weighs on Merck KGaA's 2018 outlookAkzo Nobel expects headwinds from material costs in 2018EXCLUSIVE-Five banks open up trillion dollar gold clubUniper profit drops on weaker gas optimisation businessVivendi CEO not worried about Elliott's move on Telecom Italia - paperRoche names Pao head of drugs research and early developmentLinde sees slight gain in earnings on industrial gasesJulius Baer sets up venture with Siam Commercial Bank to tap Thai wealthAxel Springer guides for faster growth in core profitsHugo Boss upbeat for 2018 on brand shift to win young customersNissan says Renault-Nissan-M'bishi has no plans to change cross-shareholding ratioRetailer Casino eyes further profit growth in 2018France's JCDecaux sees slowing growth in first quarterPrudential's Malaysia unit in stake sale talks with pension fund as regulatoryUnivision Communications CEO to retire at year endBritish estate agent Countrywide posts 22.5 pct drop in FY core earningsUK's G4S posts revenue slightly below expectations but outlook brightFrench utility Engie surprises with 2018 dividend increaseAviva plans 500 mln stg share buyback, 2017 profit up 2 pct (Danilo Masoni) ***** EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES EDGE UP (0721 GMT) European stock index futures have opened up slightly (+0.2-0.4%), as trade war fearsappeared to ease and the immediate focus shifted to the ECB's policy meeting later today. (Danilo Masoni) ***** RESULTS ROLL IN FROM AKZO NOBEL, MERCK, UNIPER (0650 GMT) Some more earnings to keep an eye on today. Paints maker Akzo Nobel plans to increase prices and cut costs as it expectsrising raw material costs to continue to weigh in 2018. Merck points to intense competition from China for its liquid crystals used inflat screens as a dampener for its earnings, which slipped 6.5 percent as a stronger euro alsoweighed. And German utility Uniper, in which Fortum has agreed to buy a 46.65percent stake, reported an 18 percent decline in full-year profit due to weaker performance fromits gas optimisation business. And in the latest overnight development after Reuters' report yesterday that Nissanwas in talks to buy the French government's stake in Renault, the Japanese car companysaid the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance had no plans to change cross-shareholding ratios ofits member companies. (Helen Reid) ***** "NOT MUCH NEW INFORMATION" EXPECTED FROM ECB (0632 GMT) Societe Generale strategists don't see today's ECB meeting as likely to deliver any hugerevelations, partly due to the central bank stepping on eggshells in a more jittery market. "The recent communication wobbles have largely been resolved, with the focus firmly onkeeping expectations of a first rate hike at bay," SocGen writes in a note. "Given heightenedmarket sensitivity, it is likely too early for the ECB to contemplate any changes in the APPguidance." They reckon the new forecasts from the central bank could point to slightly higher growthand inflation this year, but core inflation should remain unchanged. "As before, we believe the ECB is moving dangerously slowly with its normalisation process,not only running the risk of missing the window offered by the strong economic conditions butalso of undermining the role of monetary policy in future macroeconomic stabilisation efforts,"strategists warn. (Helen Reid) ***** MORNING CALL: TRADE FEARS FADE, EUROPEAN INVESTORS AWAIT ECB (0613 GMT) European shares are set for a calmer trading day today as fears about a global trade warfade, with the U.S. administration giving signs the tariffs could include carve-outs for keypartners. In Europe all eyes will be on the ECB today as investors hope to glean further hints fromMario Draghi about what will happen after September this year when the current bond-buyingprogramme is expected to come to an end. The FTSE is called to open flat at 7,158 points, the DAX is seen opening 23 points higher at12,268 points, and the CAC 40 is expected to gain 16 points to 5,204 points. (Helen Reid) *****
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