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UK MIDDAY BRIEFING: UK Jobless Rate Falls Even As Inflation Weakens

Wed, 18th Feb 2015 12:39

LONDON (Alliance News) - The pound received a lift and UK stock indices remained near record highs Wednesday after the report that UK unemployment fell and average earnings rose by more than expected at the end of 2014.

The jobs report was the second piece of good economic news for the UK in as many days, after inflation was reported Tuesday to have eased by more than expected to a record low in January on falling motor fuel and food prices, buttressing the Bank of England's recent assessment that inflation is moving into negative territory.

On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics said the UK jobless rate fell to 5.7% during the October to December period from 5.8% in the September to November period. Economists had forecast the rate to remain at 5.8%.

The claimant count rate fell to 2.5% in January as expected, from 2.6% in December. Confirming the economists' estimate. The number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance decreased by 38,600 from December, while economists expected a decline of 25,000.

Average earnings rose 2.1% annually after the 1.8% increase in November, more than the 1.7% consensus estimate. However average earnings excluding bonuses grew 1.7% in the same period, down on the forecast and November's figure of a 1.8% growth.

"Overall this is a solid report that will give the Bank of England faith that it is pursuing the correct path by not being too worried about the prospect of deflation. This report is pound positive even if there are a couple of points that are worth noting," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, citing the number of people who are economically inactive and the influence of January bonuses on the wage figures.

The minutes of the central bank's most-recent monetary policy committee meeting showed Wednesday that members voted unanimously to hold the key UK interest rate at a record low 0.50%.

The pound rose against other major currencies in response to the jobs report and BoE minutes.

Meanwhile, another indicator suggested that UK household finances remain resilient in February.

The Markit Household Finance Index, which measures overall perceptions of financial well being and aims to track consumer behavior, fell slightly to 45.4 in February from January's survey record high of 45.6. A score below 50 suggests pessimism regarding finances among the UK households.

The index measuring the outlook for financial well-being over the next 12 months, dropped to 50.2 in February from a record high of 53.4 in the previous month. However, the sentiment remained positive for the fifth straight month.

Both indices are the result of a survey by Markit Economics and Ipsos Mori, which has a six-year history.
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Markets: The FTSE 100 has given up its early gains, having risen strongly at the open on reports that the Greek government will ask for an extension of its loan agreement with the eurozone. The FTSE 100 touched a new 15-year intraday high of 6,921.32 at the open, after also achieving its highest close in 15 years on Tuesday. The blue-chip index remains short of its record high of 6,950.60 points, set in December 1999.

US futures point to a flat to higher open. The DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite indices are indicated up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 is looking flat.

FTSE 100: marginally lower at 6,896.11
FTSE 250: up 0.7%% at 17,000.09
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 0.1%% at 707.35
GBP-USD: up at 1.5426
EUR-USD: down at 1.1370
GOLD: down at USD1,206.18 an ounce
OIL (Brent): down at USD61.32 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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Coca-Cola HBC cited a "challenging", volatile year ahead, having reported a drop in 2014 profit due to adverse currency movements and volume weakness in key emerging markets Russia and Ukraine. The coke bottler reported an 11.4% drop in fourth quarter comparable net profit to EUR30.4 million, from EUR34.3 million last year. Total group sales volume increased 0.8% in the quarter to 485.1 million unit cases, following a 4.8% decline in the third quarter, and 3.9% in the first nine months of the year, after it saw a somewhat better performance in Russia, Nigeria, Poland, Austria and Greece. It said volume returned to growth in the quarter in its developing markets, such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, after nearly two years of decline.
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SSE said it will work with the Competition & Markets Authority after the UK competition regulator published a report which indicated energy suppliers in the UK are charging long-term customers higher prices. The CMA published an updated issues statement on its probe into the UK energy markets, outlining its initial thinking on the evidence it has received so far and the analysis carried out to date. It said it has not made any conclusions and that its view could change in light of further evidence yet to be collected in the ongoing investigation. The CMA found a total of 95% of dual-fuel customers on standard variable tariffs would have saved GBP158 to GBP234 per year had they switched provider between 2011 and 2014.
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RSA Insurance Group said it has agreed a deal to sell its minority stake in Indian insurance company Royal Sundaram Alliance Insurance to joint venture partner Sundaram Finance. Sundaram will pay GBP46 million in cash to RSA to acquire the FTSE 100-listed insurer's 26% stake in the company.
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Shares in Galliford Try gained ground after the company reported a rise in pretax profit in the first half on the back of strong revenue growth across its construction and housebuilding operations and hiked its dividend by close to half. The housebuilder said pretax profit for the six months to the end of December was GBP42.5 million, up 12% from the GBP38.1 million posted a year earlier. Revenue in the first half rose to GBP1.08 billion, up 35% from the GBP803.5 million posted last year. The group hiked its interim dividend on the back of the rise in profit, raising it to 22 pence per share from 15 pence per share last year.
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Online betting company Betfair Group announced its subsidiary TVG has acquired the HRTV horseracing television network from US gambling and horse racing firm Stronach Group. Betfair said the television operations of the Stronach Group's HRTV will be combined with its own TVG network, while it has acquired broadcast rights to all races from Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, Pimlico, Golden Gate Fields and Laurel Park for a term of seven years. Betfair said it will pay an initial USD25 million for HRTV, and estimates paying a further consideration totalling USD47.8 million over a seven-year period, dependent on TVG's performance.
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Balfour Beatty said it has reached financial close and completed the acquisition of the GBP352 million Gwynt y Môr offshore transmission project. The FTSE 250-listed construction and support services company said it will jointly own the project with infrastructure investor Equitix. Balfour will invest GBP28 million of equity in the project, representing 60% of the equity required.
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Hong Leong Co (Malaysia) Bhd has reduced its stake in The Rank Group, according to a statement on Wednesday, with subsidiary GuoLine Overseas Ltd selling 50 million shares at a price of 185 pence per share in an accelerated bookbuild placing with institutional investors. The sale of the 12.8% stake leaves Hong Leong with about 219.1 million shares in Rank, the London-listed casino and bingo club owner, equivalent to a 56.1% stake.
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AIM Movers
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Zoo Digital Group, up 14%. The company, which provides cloud-based media production and software services, said it expects to post revenue for its financial year to end March ahead of the previous year and announced it has won a contract with BBC Worldwide. Tangiers Petroleum, up 12%. The oil company said it has raised AUD7 million via a share placing in Australia after issuing 691.3 million shares to complete the acquisition of the Project Icewine oil prospect in Alaska.

Alecto Minerals, off 41%. The company said it has received a notice from Centamin, the FTSE 250-listed gold miner, to terminate the pair's joint venture in Ethiopia the two entered into in 2013 for the development of Alecto licences in Ethiopia. Clear Leisure, down 25%. The company said it has received notice that Westhouse Securities has filed a winding up petition with the Companies Court in London. Westhouse is seeking around GBP100,000 pursuant to unpaid debts owed by Clear Leisure for contractual services it provided, Clear Leisure said.
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Other Top Economics And General
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Policymakers of the Bank of England unanimously decided to hold the key interest rate at a record low 0.50% and the asset purchase programme unchanged at GBP375 billion. All nine committee members agreed that it was appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting, the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting held on February 4 and 5 showed. "All members viewed it as more likely than not that Bank Rate would increase over the next three years; for one member, the next change in the stance of monetary policy was roughly as likely to be a loosening as a tightening," the minutes showed.
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The European Central Bank is facing resistance from Germany to allowing any extra emergency funding for Greek banks, putting pressure on the new government in Athens to accept an extended aid-for-reform programme, Reuters reported. Though the ECB is unlikely to lower the ceiling on emergency lending assistance by the Greek central bank, currently at EUR65 billion, a refusal to increase the ceiling could be negative for Greek banks, which are close to using up the amount allotted so far, Reuters said.
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In an apparent change from its adamant position, Greece government might seek for an extension of its loan agreement, reports said. The anti austerity government lead by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been trying for re-negotiation of the bailout terms and for softer terms. The EUR240 billion debt bailout is due to expire on February 28. According to Greek public television, Greece will send a letter to the head of the Eurogroup for a strings-free extension of its European loan agreement for the next six months.
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Ukrainian forces are pulling out of the strategic eastern city of Debaltseve, President Petro Poroshenko said. "This morning the armed forces and the national guard completed the planned and organized withdrawal from Debaltseve," Porosehnko said, according to the Interfax Ukraine news agency. He added that 80% of the troops had left the embattled city. Poroshenko was speaking at Kiev airport, from where he was flying to visit troops in the conflict zone. Some 5,000 Ukrainian troops have been encircled in the city, which serves a vital transport hub and has been controlled by government forces through much of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
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Switzerland's economic expectations logged its sharpest decline in the survey history, data from Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research and Credit Suisse showed. The ZEW-CS economic expectations indicator plunged by 62.2 points to -73 in February. The survey signaled that the removal of currency ceiling by the Swiss National Bank weighed heavily on the economic outlook.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in GMT)

13:30 US Producer Price Index
13:30 US Housing Starts and Building Permits
13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales
14:15 US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
19:00 US FOMC Minutes
22:00 US FOMC Member Powell Speech
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Thursday's Key UK Corporate Events

BAE Systems - Full Year Results
Centrica - Full Year Results
Go-Ahead - Half Year Results
Harvey Nash Group - Full Year Results
Primary Health Properties - Full Year Results
Morgan Sindall Group - Full Year Results
Rathbone Brothers - Full Year Results
Rexam - Full Year Results
Petra Diamonds - Half Year Results
Sports Direct International - Interim Management Statement
Promethean World - Full Year Results
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Thursday's Key Economic Events (all times in GMT)

China Chinese New Year
04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index
05:00 Japan BoJ Monthly Economic Survey
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index
07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance
07:45 France Consumer Price Index
09:00 EU Current Account
11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey
11:00 Ireland Consumer Price Index
12:30 EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US CB Leading Indicator
15:00 EU Consumer Confidence Preliminary
15:00 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks and Natural Gas Storage
16:30 Germany Buba President Weidmann speech
17:15 Canada BoC Governor Council Member Cote Speech
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By Tom Waite; thomaslwaite@alliancenews.com; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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