* Major U.S. stock indexes log 5th straight weekly gains
* Energy leads S&P sector gains; healthcare only decliner
* Gold, oil up; dollar down slightly; bitcoin down
* U.S. 10-yr Treasury yield ~1.45%
Nov 5 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
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PFIZER PILL OPTIMISM LIFTS INDEXES TO RECORD HIGH CLOSES
(1605 EDT/2005 GMT)
Wall Street's three main indexes rallied to record high
closes on Friday, lifted by an upbeat U.S. jobs report and
encouraging data for Pfizer's experimental pill to fight
COVID-19.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time
highs for their seventh straight sessions.
Pfizer soared almost 11% after a trial of its
experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 was stopped early after
the drug was shown to cut by 89% the chances of hospitalization
or death for adults at risk of developing severe disease.
Rival vaccine seller Moderna sank over 16%.
The positive data in Pfizer's study led to increased
optimism about the economy's recovery from the coronavirus
pandemic, with the S&P 1500 airlines index soaring
7%.
Also lifting sentiment about the economy, a Labor Department
report showed U.S. employment increased more than expected in
October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections
over the summer subsided.
Amazon rose 1.2%, lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
more than any other stock.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average
have now notched five straight weekly advances. For the week,
the S&P 500 rose 2%, and it is now up 25% in 2021.
Here is the closing snapshot:
(Noel Randewich)
*****
INVESTOR SENTIMENT: THE BULLS ADVANCE (1400 EDT/1800 GMT)
In the great tug-of-war between Wall Street optimists and
pessimists, the glass-half-full types continue to pull ahead.
In its latest investor survey, the American Association of
Individual Investors (AAII) shows bullish sentiment - the
expectation that stock prices will rise over the next six months
- gaining 1.7 percentage points last week to 41.5% of the total,
extending its rise above the historical average of 38%.
The 'glass-half-empty' bears on the other hand, who expect
stock prices to fall over the next six months, shed 3.4
percentage points to 26% below its 30.5% historical average.
The survey marks the third consecutive week of the bulls
advancing as the bears retreated.
Neutral sentiment was essentially unchanged.
"The return to normalcy from the coronavirus pandemic,
monetary and fiscal stimulus and inflationary pressures are
influencing individual investors’ outlook for stocks," writes
Charles Rotblut, vice president at AAII. "Other factors include
earnings, valuations and the Biden administration’s
initiatives."
(Stephen Culp)
*****
DEMOCRATS' PAIN COULD BE MARKETS' GAIN (1235 EDT/1635 GMT)
It's been a tough week for the U.S. Democratic party,
suffering state electoral losses and still unable to resolve
long standing differences over funding hefty spending bills.
Two bills - a sweeping "'Build Back Better' bill
, and a smaller infrastructure package - are up for
a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives.
However, while this gridlock isn't good for the political
party, it could be good news for financial markets that have
been as wary about President Joe Biden's push for higher taxes
as they have cheered the prospect of increased spending.
While the passage of infrastructure spending is positive for
a wide range of companies, the Build Back Better bill — with
accompanying tax hikes - could "languish through the winter,"
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist at AGF Investments
writes.
Valliere says if the House can approve the social spending
bill, the basic infrastructure bill can be quickly passed and
signed by Biden as it has already been approved by the U.S.
Senate.
"The social spending package would then face weeks of
debate, as the House and Senate iron out differences," he adds.
The infrastructure bill, which has already been approved by
the U.S. Senate, includes about $1.2 trillion in new spending
for roads, rail projects, broadband, water, EV chargers and
electrical grid improvements.
Stocks in these sectors rallied in the weeks following
Biden's election, and have continued a strong run over the past
year.
The KraneShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF
and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF
are up 70% and 60%, respectively, since last November,
compared to a roughly 37% rise in the S&P 500.
(Lisa Pauline Mattackal)
******
PFIZER NOVEMBER (1200 EDT/1600 GMT)
One year since Pfizer Inc announced the first
COVID-19 vaccine that helped free the world from months of
lockdown, the pharmaceutical company delivered
successful results for another life changing trial: a COVID-19
pill.
Most pandemic stock laggards jumped after Pfizer said a
trial of experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 was stopped
early after the drug was shown to cut by 89% the chances of
hospitalization or death for adults at risk of developing severe
disease.
Just like last year, European travel stocks got a boost from
the Pfizer's announcement: Carnival, Trainline,
Lufthansa Dufry, BA owner IAG all
posted between 4-10%. Intercontinental Hotel jumped to
its highest level since February.
While it is too soon to forecast which stocks will benefit
the most from a potential COVID cure, for the time being, here
is a list of the 20 top (and worst) performers in London since
the Pfizer vaccine announcement in 2020, courtesy of AJ Bell:
(Joice Alves)
******
PARTY LIKE IT'S 1973 OR MOURN LIKE IT'S 1949 (1140 EDT/1540
GMT)
There is little doubt that 2021 will be a year to be
remembered for financial markets.
As highlighted in BofA's Flow Show note, 2021 so far is the
best year for commodities since 1973 when the oil crisis hit the
world economy hard.
For government bonds, 2021 year-to-date is also the worst
year since 1949, when Europe was only starting to recover from
WW2 and the Cold War was already in full swing.
(Julien Ponthus and Karin Strohecker)
*****
UNICORNS, RAINBOWS, AND ONE OR TWO LANDMINES: A JOBS REPORT
DEEP DIVE (1115 EDT/1515 GMT)
The Labor Department did investors a solid on Friday by
delivering an upbeat employment report supporting Fed Chair
Jerome Powell's prediction that a 'full recovery' for the labor
market is on the horizon.
U.S. employers added 531,000 workers to their payrolls
last month, handily beating the 450,000 consensus
and notching a 70.2% acceleration from September's upwardly
revised 312,000 job adds.
This was indeed a solid gain amid a labor drought that
persists despite increased vaccination rates and a waning
pandemic threat. With this report, all but 4.2 million jobs have
been recovered from the 22 million-plus wiped away when mandated
shutdowns shoved the economy into its steepest plunge on record.
"(The report) shows that we’re seeing the jobs market
healing to the point where we could expect even larger gains
next month as more people return to the labor force," says Peter
Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.
"If these numbers continue at this pace, we could probably see
full employment at the end of the first quarter."
Private payrolls were the star of the show, jumping by
604,000 - well above estimates - and more than offsetting the
73,000 jobs shed by federal, state and local governments.
This helped the unemployment rate shave 0.2
percentage points to 4.6%, the lowest since March, and more than
10 percentage points lower than the April 2020's head-spinning
14.7% apex.
What's more, when broken down by duration, the mid-range
share of the total grew, with newly unemployed and long-term
jobless pie slices shrinking, suggesting that new firings and
benefits expiration are losing steam as the chief drivers of the
headline print.
But enough unicorns and lollipops. Let's wander through the
landmines.
Remember the falling unemployment rate? One reason for the
decline is the dismal labor market participation rate, which
stubbornly held its ground at 61.6%, well below the historical
average.
When people leave the workforce they are no longer counted
as unemployed. But the participation rate can't stay in the
ditch forever, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at
Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"The stimulus payments and extra benefits payments,
alongside Covid fear, likely have allowed many people to sit
outside the labor force," Shepherdson writes. "But the money
won't last forever, and the U.S. is a difficult place to be
voluntarily unemployed."
Another fly in the merlot is wage growth, which has heated
up on a year-on-year basis to 4.9%, a 0.3 percentage point
acceleration from September.
The worker shortage has prompted U.S. companies to sweeten
the pot to attract applicants and retain current headcount.
Rising wages puts "more money in people’s pockets which,
under the right circumstances, should lead to higher living
standards," notes Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise
Financial Services.
But this phenomenon could test Powell's repeated mantra of
"transitional" inflation, as wages are less elastic than
gasoline or used car prices, and in addition to implying
shrinking corporate profit margins could also suggest the
current inflation wave won't pass as quickly as Powell and co
might have wished.
"Many people believe – and we would agree – that the Fed
would be happy to let the economy run hot, in terms of
higher-than-average GDP growth and lower than average
unemployment rates, as long as inflation doesn’t become
entrenched," says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at
Independent Advisor Alliance.
Below is a snapshot of hourly earnings growth and other
major indicators, all of which continue to soar well above the
Fed's average annual 2% inflation target:
Finally, the jobless gap increased among racial and ethnic
lines.
The unemployment rate among Black Americans held firm at
7.9%, while the rate of white joblessness dropped to an even 4%,
resulting in a widening of the Black/white jobs disparity.
Wall Street liked the report, which helped put the major
indexes on course for yet another round of record closing highs.
What's more, compared with last Friday's closing levels, all
three are on track to notch their fifth straight weekly
advances.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
JOBS REPORT HELPS STOCKS HIT RECORD HIGHS EARLY (1005
EDT/1405 GMT)
The three major U.S. stock indexes are higher and hit record
highs at the opening on Friday following a report showing U.S.
employment increased more than expected in October.
Gains are broad-based with all S&P 500 sectors
gaining aside from healthcare. Industrials,
up 1.5% in early trading, are helping to lead the gains along
with real estate.
"There's not a lot to complain about in the employment
report," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview
Investment Management in Chicago.
Earnings continue to come in mostly stronger than expected.
Shares of Monster Beverage are up 2.8% and Shake Shack
is up 20% Fri, after both released results late
Thursday.
Here is your opening snapshot:
(Caroline Valetkevitch)
*****
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