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(A look at the day ahead from senior markets correspondent
Tommy Wilkes. The views expressed are his own.)
Stronger than-expected Chinese export numbers might boost
speculation that the Asian giant's economy can recover quickly
and come to the aid of global growth. But markets gave the
figures only a cautious welcome, focusing perhaps on the
double-digit fall in imports as a reflection of collapsing
demand.
Another warning on the world economic outlook came from the
Bank of England which said the coronavirus crisis could cause
the biggest economic slump in 300 years.
Markets are also wary of developments in Turkey where the
lira has fallen to a record low of 7.25 against the U.S. dollar.
With a Federal Reserve policymaker essentially ruling out a swap
line to Ankara and net currency reserves at just around $25
billion, fears are growing for the external debt maturing this
year and the risk that Turkey could set off a fresh wave of
emerging market crises.
World stocks were up slightly in early London trading, with
European bourses rising between 0.4% and 0.6% and Wall Street
looking set for a positive open after a late plunge on
Wednesday. After their April bounce, stocks have struggled for
direction – the moves in many countries to relax restrictions on
commerce are increasingly priced in, and the horrendous economic
and corporate news keeps on coming.
Underscoring the edginess, the Japanese yen – still the
go-to safe-haven currency – traded at seven-week highs of 106
against the dollar amid grim newsflow and a ratcheting up of
U.S-China trade tensions. President Donald Trump said he could
say in a week or two whether China was fulfilling its
obligations under a trade deal signed in January.
Elsewhere in currency markets, sterling ticked higher
towards $1.24 after the Bank of England held fire on pumping
more quantitative easing into Britain's economy. But with two of
nine policymakers voting for 100 billion pounds’ more of
bond-buying, the direction of travel is clearly for more easing.
In what it called an illustrative scenario, the BOE sees a 14%
plunge in Britain’s economy in 2020.
Adding to the mounting list of record or near-record output
declines, Germany industry output plunged 9.2% in March, its
fastest rate of decline since records began in 1991. Later on
Thursday we get another set of U.S. jobless claims -- expected
to show a further 3 million rise. Friday's April payrolls data
meanwhile should show 22 million Americans pushed into
unemployment. The jobless rate is expected at 16% or more,
erasing more than a decade of job gains.
In Europe, Italian government borrowing costs have risen
above the psychologically-important 2% level for the first time
in two weeks, following a ruling by Germany's constitutional
court ruling that could jeopardise further ECB bond-buying.
The ruling, with potential to shake the very foundations of
the European Union, has also hurt the euro, which holds near
two-week lows. In commodity markets, crude oil prices had a more
measured start to trading, with Brent crude down 1% at $29.4 a
barrel
For European corporates, the now regular round of pulled
2020 earnings guidance and dramatic revenue drops was punctured
by an M&A deal - Telefonica will merge British unit O2
with Virgin Media, owned by Liberty Global. That
creates a British telecoms giant, with O2 valued at 12.7 billion
pounds and Virgin Media at 18.7 billion pounds, including debt.
On dividends, BT suspended its dividend until 2021/22
while HeidelbergCement slashed dividend proposals.
Equinor suspended its 2020 oil and gas output
guidance.
A busy earnings day too: Norwegian Air passenger
volumes fell 99% in April y-o-y. Also in airlines, British
Airways-owner IAG said flights could return to service
in July and that it has 10 billion euros of liquidity available.
Other revenue drops were more modest: Osram said
revenues decreased by 4.7% to 821 million euros.
In emerging markets, the brewing Turkish crisis aside,
stocks were broadly flat as Chinese export numbers took some
pressure off manufacturers in the world's second-largest
economy.
As regards the other emerging market pain point, Argentina,
a group of 138 economists from 20 countries, including Nobel
laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Edmund S. Phelps, urged
bondholders to take a "constructive approach" to Argentina's
debt restructuring proposal.
