Last checked at 
* European shares off highs, up 0.1%
* Investors await Fed, other central banks decisions
* Vifor rallies after takeover deal
* U.S. stock futures dip
Dec 14 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters
reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
WHO'S BREATHING DOWN THE BOE'S NECK? (1315 GMT)
It's fair to say the upbeat UK job data this morning didn't initially seem to much increase
the pressure on the BoE to hike rates.
"The pound is little changed following the release of the data", wrote Simon Harvey, an
analyst at Monex Europe.
The stats did show employers are hiring at record numbers but the spread of the Omicron
variant is a real game changer.
For Hugh Gimber, a strategist at JP Morgan AM, there's just not enough visibility for BoE
policy makers to tighten even with a rosy labour market.
"With Omicron posing near-term risks to the growth outlook, and still much to learn about
the real-world efficacy of vaccines, we expect policymakers to instead opt to keep rates on hold
this week in the hope that the outlook has become clearer by February".
But throughout the morning the mood seemed to be changing a tad with yields of UK government
bonds gently rising up across the curve.
Then suddenly at 12 GMT, the pressure jumped one notch.
The IMF warned the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street to "avoid inaction bias" with Britain on
course to hit a 30-year high inflation of 5.5% next year.
"The Bank of England needs to calibrate the response taking into account both pressures
coming from inflation and the necessity to make sure that there is no cold water thrown on
growth," Kristalina Georgieva told reporters after the IMF presented an annual report on
Britain's economy.
No pressure of course.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
M&A DRAG (1133 GMT)
M&A typically spices things up in terms of market price action but not so much so this
morning as the two biggest losers on London's FTSE 100 can testify.
BT and Rentokil are losing 6.4% and 5% in an otherwise positive market after M&A news went
the wrong way.
Clearly, there's a sense that Rentokil is paying really big bucks to acquire Terminix and
grow further in the U.S. market.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould believes the UK company is offering a "fairly chunky
premium" and of course, there's plenty of execution risk in a deal of that scale.
"It's not hard to see the strategic rationale behind the move but so-called transformational
deals often transform the purchaser's prospects for the worse rather than the better", he added.
As for BT, news that an investors is ramping up his stake is usually good thing when it
comes to the share price action but not in this case.
Franco-Israeli telecom tycoon Patrick Drahi lifted his stake to 18% but made clear he did
not intend to make a full bid for the company which in a way puts a lid on a further M&A
premium.
Drahi is de facto increasing his control over the company without paying a premium and it
also seems he's not that welcomed by the UK government.
A spokesperson said the UK government "will not hesitate to act if required to protect our
critical national telecoms infrastructure".
"I can’t imagine the government would allow BT to be taken over and I think investors are
paying close attention to the immediate and very defensive response from the government",
commented Neil Wilson, Chief Market Analyst at Markets.com
Here's the share price of BT versus the European telco sector in the last ten years:
And some reading:
Bugs beware: Rentokil to create pest control giant with $6.7 bln deal
Britain warns Drahi after he lifts BT stake to 18%
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
"EQUITY BULLISHNESS IS ALIVE AND WELL" (1121 GMT)
The above quote is one of the highlights of the European section of the latest monthly fund
manager survey by BofA Global Research.
Here are key findings from the poll:
* 28% expect the rally in European equities to continue until at least Q4 2022
* 10% think equities have already peaked and 15% expect it to peak in Q1
* 62% see 5-10% upside for European equities next year
* 12% expect more than 10% upside
* Net 20% regard the market as undervalued, the largest proportion since March 2019
* 42% see reducing equity exposure too early as the biggest risk to their portfolio
* 23% think the key risk is reducing equity exposure too late, up from 9% in November
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
STOXX BOUNCES FROM 1-WEEK LOW
European stocks are off to a positive start with the STOXX 600 bouncing from from a
1-week low, although worries about possible hawkish central bank surprises and uncertainty over
the Omicron variant keeping traders on the cautious side.
Dealmaking peppered up the session with Vifor surging 13% after Australian
biopharma giant CSL said it would buy the Swiss drugmaker for $11.7 billion.
BT Group fell to the bottom of the STOXX after entrepreneur Patrick Drahi rised his
stake in the UK telecoms firm, drawing a defensive response from the British government.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
BIG APPLE (0830 GMT)
A marked flattening in the U.S yield curve -- with longer-dated borrowing costs taking a
tumble -- failed to lift tech shares on Monday. Instead, as the Omicron COVID variant gathered
steam, consumer staples, pharmas and other defensives benefited, balking Apple of a $3 trillion
market capitalisation.
With Wall Street futures pointing higher, and Apple's Frankfurt-listed shares up almost 1%,
Tuesday may well be the day the milestone is hit.
But in a week heavy with central bank meetings, data and expectations of hawkish policy
turns, it's anyone's guess how market moves pan out.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England's dilemma -- to hike or not to hike -- hasn't gone away.
November's payrolls increase was the biggest since tax office records began in 2014, showing
labour markets have withstood the end of a furlough scheme.
Online supermarket Ocado also provided a snapshot of the UK jobs market with a 3.9% fall in
quarterly sales, due to labour shortages.
But with the spread of Omicron triggering work-from-home advice and other restrictions, the
BoE may well choose to hold fire on Thursday.
Watch too for U.S. factory gate prices -- a reliable forward indicator for CPI -- out later
on. Having started the year below 2%, November PPI will be above 9%, polls predict.
That data is unlikely to shake conviction the Federal Reserve, starting its two-day meeting
on Tuesday, will accelerate its stimulus tapering and that the dot-plot chart of rate-setters
voting intentions will show a more hawkish turn compared to the last meeting.
That's keeping the dollar index at one week-highs and equity futures are higher. For
now, let's focus on emerging markets, where the rate hiking campaign continues unabated --
Hungary is expected to raise rates by 30 basis points and Chile by as much as 125 bps.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:
-OPEC upbeat on 2022 oil demand, says Omicron impact to be mild
-Musk sells Tesla shares worth $906.5 million
-Euro zone industrial production November
-Germany's Ifo Institute economic outlook
-Europe earnings: Ocado, Purple Bricks
(Sujata Rao)
*****
EUROPE: TIMID BOUNCE BACK AHEAD (0726 GMT)
Following a late reversal into negative territory yesterday on renewed Omicron jitters,
European shares are expected to bounce back timidly this morning with futures pointing to gains
of 0.2-0.4%.
Investors are nevertheless bracing for more volatility in the coming days as they await key
policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England which could
signal further tightening to fight inflation.
Over in Asia, concerns over the economic fallout of the new virus variant dampened risk
appetite, sending shares in most markets falling, although U.S. stock index futures pointed
north after declines in the previous session.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
