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UK MIDDAY BRIEFING: Eurozone PMI Data Leavens Greek Uncertainty

Fri, 20th Feb 2015 12:14

LONDON (Alliance News) - While markets await the outcome of Friday's Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers to discuss Greece's proposal for a six-month extension to its loan agreement, a set of readings on the eurozone economy have provided some underlying good news.

The situation with Greece continues to cause uncertainy. Reuters reported Friday that Greece and the eurozone are close to a deal on a financing-for-reforms package, citing a senior Greek official.

On Thursday, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis wrote to Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem to formally request a six-month extension to the agreement governing its bailout. But the terms of the Greek proposal were dismissed out of hand by the German finance ministry, saying the proposal "does not correspond" to criteria agreed by eurozone finance ministers earlier this week.

"The game of cat and mouse between Germany and Greece continues, and the debt-stricken nation will have to compromise in order to get assistance from the European Central Bank. The eurozone equity market is being held back by the developments in Greece and will remain offside until a deal is brokered," said IG market analyst David Madden.

Amid the Greek uncertainty, flash data from Markit Economics on Friday showed that Eurozone business activity accelerated for the third straight month to hit a seven-month high in February on stronger demand, raising hopes of economic recovery gaining strength. New order growth also prompted firms to raise their staffing levels at the fastest pace since 2011.

The composite Purchasing Managers' Index index rose to 53.5 in February from 52.6 in January. It was also above the expected score of 53. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector.

The PMI for services climbed to 53.9 in February from 52.7 in January. It was expected to rise slightly to 53. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose less-than-expected to 51.1 from 51.0 in January. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 51.5.

"Undeterred by the ongoing Greek debt crisis, economic growth is gathering momentum and looks set to gain further traction in coming months," Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said.

According to Williamson, the eurozone economy is on course to grow by at least 0.3% in the first quarter, assuming March does not disappoint.

Friday's PMI data showed that Germany's growth accelerated for the third month in a row, though it was more dependent upon services activity. The composite output index came in at 54.3 in February, a 7-month high, up from 53.5 in January.

The German services PMI rose more-than-expected to 55.5, a 5-month high, from 54.0 in January. The score was expected to rise marginally to 54.4 in February. At the same time, expansion in the manufacturing sector remained stable in February. The index remained at 50.9 versus an expected score of 51.5.

Even France provided good news, with its PMI readings showing the first upturn in business activity since April last year with growth hitting the fastest since August 2011.

The French composite output index rose to 52.2 in February from 49.3 in January, more than the 49.8 reading expected by economists. The private sector expanded for the first time in ten months. It was also the highest score in 42 months.

Meanwhile, in the UK, retail sales declined slightly more than expected in January, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. Retail sales dropped 0.3% in January from the prior month, which was the first decline in four months.

Economists had forecast sales to fall 0.2% after rising 0.2% in December. The monthly fall was driven by food, textile, clothing and footwear and other store sales.
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Markets: London stocks are trading mostly higher, as investors await the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting. US futures point to a flat to higher opening. The DJIA is indicated up 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.2%, and the S&P 500 flat.

FTSE 100: up 0.3% at 6,912.34
FTSE 250: down 0.1% at 17,026.45
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 0.1% at 709.83
GBP-USD: down at 1.1322
EUR-USD: down at 1.5366
GOLD: down at USD1,203.60 an ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD60.34 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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Standard Life reported a 19% rise in operating profit before tax from continuing operations in 2014, bolstered by rising assets under administration on the back of net inflows, positive market movements, and the acquisition of Ignis Asset Management. Standard Life's operating profit before tax from continuing operations amounted to GBP604 million in 2014, beating the GBP559 million consensus forecast figure provided by the company and supporting a 7.8% rise in its annual dividend to 17.03 pence.
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BP has lost its bid to reduce the maximum civil fine of GBP8.9 billion that the company could face for its role in the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the BBC reported. A US judge rejected BP's appeal to pay a cap of USD3,000 per barrel spilt in the Gulf of Mexico, with government prosecutors claiming BP should pay up to USD4,300 per barrel to account for inflation. The court has yet to decide the amount of responsibility and final penalty the firm will pay for the disaster.
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Bidders for the private banking assets being sold by Royal Bank of Scotland Group have pointed to the allegations over tax evasion by clients of HSBC Holdings' Swiss unit to lower the price it would cost to buy Coutts International, according to the FT. The report, which cited people familiar with the situation, said that Credit Suisse, Union Bancaire Privée and a combination of Société Générale and DBS are among those in the final rounds of the bidding for Coutts International.
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Man Group, the FTSE 250 hedge fund investment manager, confirmed a conditional deal to buy the investment management business of NewSmith LLP, an equity investment manager with USD1.2 billion of funds under management In a statement, Man Group said that NewSmith, which is 40%-owned by Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, has offices in London and Tokyo and has four portfolio management teams with 15 investment professionals, investing in UK, European, Global and Japanese equities. "The acquisition brings a new dimension to the firm, including a Japanese hedge fund and an excellent team in Tokyo, as well as adding further scale to our London business," Man Group President Luke Ellis said in a statement.
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Essentra increased its full year dividend for 2014 after reporting a significant rise in pretax profit, driven by strong revenue growth across most of its divisions. The supplier of plastic and fibre products also announced that it has completed the acquisition of an Australian plastics distributor that is set to "enhance" earnings immediately. For the year ended December 31, the company reported a rise in pretax profit to GBP99.78 million compared to GBP60.3 million a year earlier, driven by strong revenue growth in the period. Essentra increased its final dividend to 12.6 pence per share, creating a full year dividend of 18.3 pence per share, up 19% from 2013.
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Nostrum Oil and Gas said it has received the results from the independent reserves audit of its licenses in north-western Kazakhstan, and said that production has remained steady at around 450,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day since August. The company's main operations are in the Chinarevskoye field in Kazakhstan, where Ryder Scott undertook the independent audit. The field makes up most of the company's reserve base, with three smaller licenses it acquired in 2013 topping it up. Nostrum said the report has revealed proved reserves in the north-west of 192.2 million barrels of oil equivalent.
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Bank of Georgia Holdings, the holding company of JSC Bank of Georgia, reported a 13% rise in pretax profit for 2014, boosted by strong lending in the fourth quarter. In a statement, Bank of Georgia Holdings said it made a GEL276.6 million pretax profit in 2014, compared with GEL245.3 million in the prior year. The increase was helped by a 19% rise in fourth-quarter pretax profit to GEL80.4 million.
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3i Infrastructure said it has signed an agreement with Oiltanking GmbH to acquire a 45% stake in two storage companies for a total of EUR111 million. The closed-ended investment company said it signed the agreement to acquire the stakes in Oiltanking Terneuzen BV in the Netherlands and Oiltanking Ghent NV in Belgium. The Oiltanking companies provide storage and related services for refined oil products, chemicals and biofuels and both companies are based in the ARA - Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp - region, which is "one of four global hubs for the oil industry", giving them benefits from their location, said 3i.
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AIM Movers
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Tri-Star Resources, up 22%. The antimony development company said Strategic & Precious Metals Processing LLC, of which it owns 40%, has received a provisional environmental permit for its Oman antimony roaster project. This permit allows Strategic & Precious to begin construction activities, and to begin with business activities.

SolGold, off 15%. The Australian gold and copper minery said its pretax loss widened in the first half on the back of increased costs and said it conducted very limited exploration work during the period. For the six months ended December 31, the group reported an operating loss before tax of GBP1.2 million, wider than the GBP1.0 million it reported in the same period a year earlier. Pinnacle Technology Group, down 14%. The company, which provides a range of converged managed solutions including managed support services, said it narrowed its pretax loss in 2014 on a fall in impairment charges, amortization and depreciation, but said revenue also fell in the year.
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Other Top Economics And General
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Greece and the eurozone are close to a deal on a financing-for-reforms package, Reuters reports, citing a senior Greek official. "We have covered four fifths of the distance, they also need to cover one fifth," the official said, adding Greece wanted to clinch a deal on Friday, but that it would not back down in the face of pressure from the Eurogroup.
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Greece will request a European summit should the Eurogroup fail to find a solution to the country's financial woes at Friday's talks in Brussels, a top ranking SYRIZA official has told dpa. "If the Eurogroup fails to find a solution we will immediately ask that a European summit be held," says the lawmaker, who has asked not to be named.
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The Greek media have reacted angrily at German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble's rejection of the country's proposal for a six-month extension on its loan agreement ahead of a crucial round of talks in Brussels on Friday. "Schaeuble is thirsty for blood," read a front-page headline on daily Democratic, while leftist newspaper Avghi argued that "Schaeuble is splitting Europe." Schaeuble's hard stance has caused a rift with fellow eurozone ministers and also within the German coalition government, with Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel, a Social Democrat, criticizing his conservative colleague.
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The UK budget balance showed its biggest surplus in seven years in January on rising personal income tax, the Office for National Statistics showed. Public sector net borrowing excluding interventions totaled -GBP 8.8 billion in January, an increase of 34.9% from last year. Economists had forecast a surplus of GBP 9 billion. Income tax receipts grew 6.1% in January and corporation tax gained 12.1%. Meanwhile, stamp duties on shares, land and property fell 11.4%.
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British households perceived that the value of their home increased in February, but the corresponding index was at the lowest level in eighteen months, survey figures from Markit Economics and Knight Frank showed Friday. The Knight Frank/Markit House Price Sentiment Index came in at 56.5 in February. In January, the index was at 58.2. Any figure above 50 indicates that prices are rising and the higher the figure, the steeper the increase. This was the twenty third consecutive month of increase, though the latest score was lowest since August 2013.
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Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank has various monetary policy options available in order to achieve 2% inflation in a stable manner. Speaking in Parliament, Kuroda said the massive bond purchase programme is not causing any problem in the government bond market. The BoJ earlier this week maintained its monetary easing programme unchanged. The bank expanded its quantitative and qualitative easing in October to raise the monetary base at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.
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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in February but at a slower pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics showed, with a preliminary PMI score of 51.5. That was well shy of forecasts for a score of 52.5, and it was down from 52.2 in January. The February reading represents a seven-month low score, although it remains above the boom-or-bust score of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
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The intelligence services of the US and Britain hacked into the world's largest SIM card maker, taking encryption keys allowing them to monitor users, a report said. The hack was a joint operation by the two agencies, and would have facilitated eavesdropping on much of the world's voice and data mobile networks, The Intercept website reported, citing a 2010 internal British document provided by former US national security contractor Edward Snowden. The unit was set up by the US National Security Agency and Britain's Government Communications Headquarters. It targeted Gemalto, the report said, which makes 2 billion SIM cards a year for 450 mobile service providers, including AT&T, T-Mobile, China Mobile and SoftBank.
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Australia said it will consider Japanese, French and German contractors for its next order of submarines, but promised that hundreds of jobs for the project will stay in Australia. The government of Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been under pressure from labour groups and local politicians to honour a campaign promise to build the subs in Adelaide on the south coast. Defence Minister Kevin Andrews said his department was now considering the option of designing and building the vessels abroad, at home, or a combination, broadcaster ABC reported. The Future Submarine Program is worth AUD50 billion, the largest defence procurement in the country's history, it said, citing government figures.
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A powerful storm that hit Australia's north-eastern coast weakened significantly as it headed south over the course of Friday, with heavy rains but no reports of major accidents or deaths. Tropical cyclone Marcia made landfall near the city of Rockhampton on the coast of Queensland state with gusts of up to 295 kilometres per hour. Marcia was later downgraded from a category 5 to a category 2 storm as it moved south towards the city of Brisbane, the Bureau of Meteorology said, with maximum gusts down to 150 kph.
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A leader of a left-wing Malaysian party was arrested under a controversial sedition law for criticizing a ruling against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, police and party officials said. S Arutchelvan, secretary general of the leftist Socialist Party of Malaysia, was arrested late Thursday by Malaysian police, the latest arrest targeting people critical of a Federal Court decision upholding Anwar's sodomy conviction.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in GMT)

EU Eurogroup meeting
13:30 Canada Retail Sales
14:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
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Monday's Key UK Corporate Events

Bovis Homes - Full Year Results
Associated British Foods - Trading Update
HSBC Holdings - Full Year Results
Bunzl - Full Year Results
XP Power - Full Year Results
Dechra Pharmaceuticals - Half Year Results
Unite Group - Full Year Results
Audioboom - Full Year Results
Greencoat UK Wind - Full Year Results
Tritax Big Box REIT - Full Year Results
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Monday's Key Economic Events (all times in GMT)

China Chinese New Year
23:50 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
09:00 Germany IFO Business Climate
11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey
13:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
15:00 US Existing Home Sales
15:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
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By Tom Waite; thomaslwaite@alliancenews.com; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.


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