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By Andrew Callus
LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Three of the world's top fourinternational oil companies, Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP, have been left out by analysts at Macquarie intheir choice of the best way to secure exposure to a deepwaterdrilling recovery.
In a research note predicting $650 billion of deepwaterdevelopment spending in the years up to 2020 driven by theprolific Santos Basin in Brazil and a return to growth in theU.S. Gulf, Macquarie said deepwater work was riskier than othersources of growth for big oil companies, but also promised thehighest returns.
Among Macquarie's deepwater exposure picks was Chevron, the U.S.-based world number three, which it said hasthe most diversified portfolio, the highest absolute exposure,and the highest relative exposure among the "super-majors".
But the other three super-majors were left out of the toppicks.
Together, these three will spend about $140 billion through2020 - over 20 percent of the total, Macquarie's research chartshows. However their deepwater exposure relative to their ownreserves ranks in the bottom half of a group of 12 companiessurveyed, as does their average unit development cost per barrelof oil equivalent (boe).
Galp Energia, the Portuguese group which has arare foreign foothold in top Brazilian deepwater acreage, waspicked for having the highest leverage to deepwater relative toits reserve base. Britain's BG - also a Brazil player -was picked for its relatively high deepwater exposure and itslowest unit development cost. Anadarko, which hascoveted exposure to offshore Mozambique gas assets, was chosenon the same basis as BG, and also for its strong operationalrecord in exploration.
Among oilfield service companies, Macquarie highlightedTechnip, Oceaneering, Schlumberger,Noble Corp and National Oilwell Varco
Macquarie analysts said Brazil would be the biggest singlecountry for deepwater investment, with spending by the nationaloil company Petrobras alone accounting for 24 percentof its predicted total.
The overall deepwater industry spend will open up a resourceof about 77 billion boe) of oil and gas, the broker predicted,and if peak production were sychronised could be pumping 12.7million barrels a day of liquids, or about 14 percent of 2011world crude consumption, and 29.2 billion cubic feet a day ofgas.
(Reporting by Andrew Callus, Editing by Louise Heavens)
