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By Yereth Rosen
ANCHORAGE, Alaska, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil production fromAlaska's North Slope has fallen faster than expected, eventhough the fiscal impact was offset by higher prices, accordingto a semiannual forecast released on Friday by the AlaskaDepartment of Revenue.
The forecast puts average North Slope production at 538,300barrels per day over the current fiscal year, 14,500 bpd lowerthan the average the department predicted in December.
State Revenue Commissioner Bryan Butcher said maintenanceproblems took a toll on oil output, which had totaled 579,100bpd in fiscal 2012.
"The flow was a lot lower than we had anticipated," Butchersaid in an interview. State officials had hoped production wouldrebound significantly later in the fiscal year that runs throughthe end of June 2013, but "it did not," Butcher added.
The effect on state coffers was limited, however, becauseNorth Slope (ANS) prices wound up higher than the departmentexpected, Butcher said. State revenues this fiscal year willwind up only about $35 million lower than anticipated, despitethe steeper-than-expected drop in production, he said. Thatcompares with total expected oil revenues of $6.87 billion.
ANS prices are expected to average $109.21 per barrel infiscal 2013, according to the forecast.
North Slope production will continue its steady declinethrough the foreseeable future, dropping to 526,600 bpd infiscal 2014, before sliding to 344,500 by fiscal 2022, accordingto the forecast. North Slope oil output is far below peakproduction of about 2.1 million bpd reached in 1988.
BP Plc, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp are among the largest oil producers in the state.
The only new production predicted in the forecast period isfrom the Point Thomson field, expected to come on line in 2016,and fields in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, expected tocome on line in 2018.
ANS spot prices are expected to average $109.61 a barrel infiscal 2014 and rise to an average of $123.34 a barrel in fiscal2022, according to the forecast.
Oil output in southern Alaska's Cook Inlet, a mature basinthat began producing in the 1950s, is also expected to continueits decline, from 10,400 bpd this fiscal year to an expectedaverage 5,600 bpd in fiscal 2022, according to the forecast.
About 90 percent of the state government's unrestrictedrevenues come from oil taxes, royalties and fees. Alaska has nopersonal income tax and no statewide sales tax.
