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Share Price: 203.65
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Week Ahead: Barclays, ARM, AB Foods

Thu, 21st Apr 2011 09:03

Some big guns are due to make trading updates next week including heavy hitters from the banking, pharma and oils sectors, such as Barclays, Lloyds, Glaxo, Astra, Shire, BP and Royal Dutch Shell.On Wednesday banking giant Barclays gives an interim management statement covering the first quarter of 2011. Nomura Securities thinks the figures are likely to be down on last year with the period unlikely to have been a vintage quarter for BarCap, the bank's investment banking arm."We assume BarCap profits of £1.2bn, down from £1.6bn the previous year. This includes a top-line income of £3.3bn, 13% lower than in Q1 last year. It also compares with £3.4bn in Q4, which benefited from non-recurring gains, we estimated to have been c. £300m, if apportioned according to risk assets," the Japanese broker said."We have assumed a continuation of the recovery in traditional banking profitability, but at a slower pace than last year. We assume Barclays Global Retail Bank contributes profit before tax of £537m, against £303m in Q1 last year. We also assume UK & Ireland profits of £243m up from £158m last year. However, across other commercial banking markets and especially in Spain, we expect losses to continue," the broker added.Out the same day are trading statements from chip designers ARM Holdings and Wolfson Microelectronics.Matrix group is bearish on ARM after its strong run over the last year, and thinks the market is overestimating the Cambridge firm's growth opportunities."We see revenues of £108.2m, adjusted operating profit of £44.9m (41.5% margin) and earnings per share (EPS) of 2.48p. Our estimates are broadly in line with consensus expectations (2.53p).We see clean OPEX [operational expenditure] of £57.2m, slightly lower than consensus," Matrix said.As for any fall-out from the Japanese earthquake, Matrix notes that: "ARM royalty revenues are recognised one quarter in arrears; any disruption in semiconductor shipments in Q2 2011 linked to recent events in Japan would not appear before Q3 2011. We do not think that licensing revenues, which historically have been quite lumpy, will suffer."The same broker is more upbeat about ARM's Scottish rival Wolfson Microelectronics, which it thinks is on the right track. "With 2009 and 2010 design wins ramping up to full production in 2011, we feel that the pipeline is very strong, in both smartphones and other applications such as TVs, tablets and game consoles. The only risk we see comes from the impact of the Japanese earthquake: any supply chain disruption will of course affect Wolfson's revenue and guidance."Matrix is forecasting first quarter revenues of $41.2m, slightly above the market consensus of $41.0m. It is below consensus on underlying operating profit, however, going for $0.2m, half the level the market is expecting. Underlying EPS is tipped to be 98 cents.One of the key issues in the trading statement could be the company's exposure to problems in Japan caused by March's earthquake and subsequent tsunami."There is still little clarity on how deeply the Japanese disaster will affect Wolfson. While the company's direct exposure to Japan is expected at 10-15% in 2011, not all customers' production facilities were affected, so the real impact will likely be smaller. The indirect effect, through wireless components shortages, is harder to assess and depends, among others things, on current inventory levels," Matrix believes. Primark and British Sugar owner Associated British Foods is another Footsie heavyweight that will be clamouring for attention on 27 April, and could see a continuation of the transfer in emphasis away from Primark to British Sugar as the main driver of growth in the short term."The depressed consumer environment in the UK has taken its toll on Primark's sales growth, with like for likes slipping to 2% in recent months, while margins remain under pressure from the rising cotton price. Sugar, by contrast, is doing better than expected despite the impact of the poor UK beet crop, with Spain and China performing strongly thanks to the tightness of global supply. Grocery has been held back by a disappointing Australian performance," broker RBS Hoare Govett said.The broker is not expecting Wednesday's trading statement to prompt a change in full year forecasts. It thinks management may focus attention on the potential profits windfall in 2012 from the sharp increase in European Union sugar prices in the event that it has better volumes from a normal beet crop. "This may push consensus EPS forecasts higher, though the continued pressure on Primark margins from high cotton prices remains a concern," RBS Hoare Govett concluded.Charles Stanley, meanwhile, thinks AB Foods will announce interim sales of £5.16bn, up from £4.73bn a year earlier, and earnings per share of 32.3p, up from 30.5p."Investor interest is likely to centre on the Primark retail chain where visibility regarding the outlook is cloudy and sentiment negative both in the context of a difficult environment for UK discretionary spending and given the difficult backdrop for input costs which are likely to have risen," writes the broker's head of investment research, Jeremy Batstone-Carr. "We have been wary regarding prospects for this business (c.27% total group sales, 35% group operating profit) for some time and suspect that margins are unlikely to revive in the near future. What AB Foods has to say regarding prospects for this business is likely to determine sentiment towards the shares in the immediate aftermath of the results' release," the broker reckons.Batstone-Carr thinks Primark's reported sales will be up by around 10% year on year, with like for like sales growth running at about 3%."With regard to the outlook we expect AB Foods to remain cautious but to continue to guide for higher earnings over the fiscal year. The extent of that profit growth is likely to be fairly subdued in our view, a reflection of rising cost pressures. We expect to have to lower estimates again in the wake of these results," Charles Stanley said.(UK markets will be closed on Friday the 22nd and Monday the 25th for the Easter break, and on Friday the 29th for the royal wedding).Monday April 25INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSNew Homes Sales (US) (15:00)Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (US) (15.30)Jobless Net Change (FRA) (17:00)FINALSBH Global Ltd. GBP SharesTuesday April 26INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEUtilico Investments Ltd (DI)QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAlpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd., Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Confidence (US) (15:00)Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (US) (15:00)Government Debt/GDP Ratio (EU) (10:00)Q3Aquarius Platinum Ltd.GMSAurum Mining, JJB SportsFINALSMail.ru Group (Reg S)SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEUtilico Investments Ltd (DI)AGMSChina Shoto, GlobeOp Financial Services SA (DI), Hotel Corp., IBM Corp., Personal Group Holdings, Shire Plc, XCounter ABUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)Wednesday April 27INTERIMSAssociated British Foods, FennerQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEEquity Partnership Inv Co Income SharesINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSRetail Sales (JPN)Small Business Confidence (JPN)GfK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)Consumer Confidence Indicator (FRA) (07:45)Consumer Prices Index Industrial (GER) New Orders (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)FOMC Interest Rate (US) (17:15)GMSChina Wonder Ltd.FINALSGame Group, PraesepeIMSSAggreko, Barclays, GlobeOp Financial Services SA (DI), Premier FoodsAGMS4imprint Group, Aggreko, Athelney Trust, Barclays, Bodycote, DP Poland, Edinburgh UK Tracker Trust, JPMorgan US Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Premier Energy & Water Trust, Stanley Gibbons GroupTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSCarpetrightUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)Index of Services (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATELSL Property ServicesFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAfrican Barrick Gold , ARM Holdings, Autoclenz Holdings, Centrica, Croda International, Dragon Oil, Drax Group, Edinburgh US Tracker Trust, Ferrexpo, Fresnillo, H.R. Owen, Henry Boot, Hydro International, IS Solutions, Lupus Capital, Playtech Ltd., Rathbone Brothers, Smith & Nephew, Tesco, Total ProduceQ1ARM Holdings, BP, GlaxoSmithKline, Wolfson MicroelectronicsThursday April 28INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAir Partner, Henderson EuroTrust, Produce Investment, ThorntonsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEPremier Energy & Water TrustINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSOverall Household Spending (JPN)Jobless rate (JPN)Consumer Prices (JPN)Industrial Production (JPN)Construction Orders (JPN)Bank of Japan target rate (JPN)GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)Consumer Spending (FRA) (07:45)PMI Retail (GER) (08:55)Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)PMI Retail (EU) (09:00)Chicago Fed National Activity Index (13:30)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)GDP (Advance) (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)Q3British Sky Broadcasting GroupGMSGroupe Eurotunnel SA (DI), Norseman Gold, Northern Foods, Telefonica 02 Czech Republic AS GDR (Reg S/144a)FINALSAsterand, Camellia, Harvey Nash Group, Orchid Developments Group Ltd., Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings, Vimetco GDR NV GDR (Reg S)ANNUAL REPORTDevro, Plaza Centers NVIMSSBritish American Tobacco, COLT Group SA, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., F&C Inv Trust, Howden Joinery Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Lloyds Banking Group, Stand-ard LifeEGMSCOLT Group SA, Global Investment House KSCC GDR (Reg S), Ruffer Investment Company Ltd., UK Commercial Property TrustAGMS32Red, Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd., AstraZeneca, Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon, Berendsen, Brady, British American Tobacco, COLT Group SA, Croda International, Devro, EP Global Op-portunities Trust, GGG Resources, Global Investment House KSCC GDR (Reg S), Groupe Euro-tunnel SA (DI), HaloSource Inc. (Reg S), Hammerson, Henderson High Income Trust, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Johnston Press, Mobile Doctors Group, Murray International Trust, Murray International Trust 'B' Shares, New World Resources NV (DI), OAO Novatek GDR (Reg S), Pearson, Premier Foods, RAB Capital, SEGRO, Senior, Talvivaara Mining Company, Telefonica 02 Czech Republic AS GDR (Reg S/144a)TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSPlaytech Ltd.UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSGFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE32Red, Anglo American, Cenkos Securities, Filtrona PLC, Hotel Corp., Maintel Holdings, Ma-ven Income and Growth VCT 5, Promethean World, Wynnstay GroupQ1AstraZeneca, Qatar Telecom QSC GDR (Reg S), Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Shire Plc, Talvivaara Mining Company, UnileverFriday April 29QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEDow Chemical Co, Torchmark Corp.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments (GER) (07:00)Producer Prices (FRA) 07:45)M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)Consumer Prices Index estimate (EU) (10:00)Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)Economic Confidence (EU) (10:00)Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00Service Sector Confidence (EU) (10:00)Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)Employment Cost Index (US) (13:30)Core PCE (US) (13:30)Personal Income & Spending (US) (13:30)Chicago PMI Survey (US) (14:45)U. of Michigan Confidence (Final) (US) (15:00)NAPM Milwaukee (US) (15:00)IMSSFBD HoldingsEGMSAlternative Energy Ltd. (DI), FBD Holdings, Fubon Financial Holdings Co Ltd.GDR (Reg S)AGMSAlpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd., Bayer AG, Diamond Bank GDR (Reg S), Espirito Santo Financial Group SA, FBD HoldingsQ1Norsk Hydro ASA, Rentokil Initial---jh
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