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Pin to quick picksBarclays Share News (BARC)

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Tuesday preview: Barclays, InterContinental Hotels, inflation

Mon, 14th Feb 2011 16:48

Results from Barclays on Tuesday are as likely to feature on the front pages as they are on the City pages. Market consensus is for profit before tax for 2010 of £5.54bn, up from 2009's £4.59bn. Revenue is slated to rise to £30.25bn from £29.95bn in 2009."The key trends in the third quarter results were very similar to those reported in the first two quarters of 2010," notes Charles Stanley. "There was better than expected news regarding bad debts which was offset by weaker income at Barclays Capital. As we have stated before with Barclays Capital contributing around three quarters of group profit before tax, it is a key determinant of the group's performance. It was obvious that the division's very strong income growth reported in 2009 was unlikely to continue indefinitely, but given its weakening momentum during 2010, after significant investment has been made in broadening the product range, there is significant debate as to what the normalised performance of this division is going to be," the broker said.It's a rare week when broker Panmure Gordon is not singing the praises of legacy software specialist Micro Focus so the opportunity to preview the company's third quarter trading update was not one the broker could pass up."In the core business, all of the 3.7% growth in the first half was delivered in the second quarter. Continued progress would start to build a case for fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013 upgrades (we forecast 4.6% and 4.0% organic growth)," the broker said. "There is also some uncertainty over whether Micro Focus will sacrifice some of its hefty 40% EBITDA [earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation]margin to invest in growth. We don't mind either way, but some clarity would help," the broker suggests. "CEO Nigel Clifford is likely to tell investors that there is no change in the Micro Focus financial year outlook, nor the playbook. We expect the key messages to include: (1) trading in line with expectations, (2) seeing tentative signs of growth; and (3) that there are early indications that the new AMQ products are getting some sales traction. In terms of a positive surprise, we feel that Micro Focus may well have salvaged something from the errant Brazilian contract (this was originally US$2.1m) and the relationship with its Brazilian distributor," the broker said.Holiday Inns operator InterContinental Hotels is expected to confirm better times for hotel operators when it announces its full year results. Broker Charles Stanley is predicting profit before tax of $375m, up from $309m in 2009, on revenue of $1,600m, up from $1,538m. Earnings before interest, tax and amortisation are tipped to rise to $450m from $363m the year before."We forecast global constant currency revenue per available room (RevPAR) to be up by 5.4% for the full year," says Charles Stanley analyst Sam Hart. "The Americas are expected to be the key driver of recovery, with operating profit forecast to be up by 27% to £365m. The rebound in demand has been strongest in the upscale segment, reflecting the return of business travellers. Recovery in the mid-scale brands is expected to be more muted, with leisure travellers being slower to return," Hart said.The broker thinks the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) segment will report a 6% rise in operating income to £135m, while Asia Pacific will show a more vibrant increase of 54% to give an operating profit of £83m, driven by new hotel openings. Third quarter figures from real estate investment trust British Land should offer few surprises, Panmure Gordon reckons, as the "company's portfolio offers good rental visibility from well-let prime assets, matched with long duration debt."The broker thinks third quarter profit before tax will be around £65.7m, giving earnings per share of 7.1p. It predicts the portfolio will be around 98% let, while net asset value per share at the end of the quarter is seen rising to 532p from 525p at the halfway stage. "In retail, the company should report the early signs of rental recovery, with perhaps a gentle increase in ERV [estimated rental value]. Like for like income growth will likely increase by 0.4 - 0.5% in the quarter," the broker reckons. Panmure Gordon also believes that the rise in office occupancy levels seen in the first half of the year will have continued into the third. Take-away pizza outfit Domino's Pizza is as good at delivering surprisingly good results as it is at delivering pizzas. Panmure Gordon, however, thinks the company's ability to match or beat market expectations may have made the market "complacent about the increasing headwinds" to like for like (LFL) sales growth. Market consensus is for sales of £485.3m, as per company guidance issued in early January. Profit before tax is tipped to be £37.8m but Panmure Gordon, being bearish on the stock, is below consensus at £37.6m. Panmure goes for earnings per share of 16.8p, versus market consensus of 17.07p."We don't expect the group to reveal LFL data for the first six weeks of 2011, but believe LFL system sales growth should be fairly robust given the recent price rises and longer trading hours. Comparatives get much tougher in Q2, and we believe LFL sales growth will slow markedly from there on in. In addition, surging commodity prices will ultimately put pressure on Domino's and franchisee margins; we note that Domino's has a two-year utility fix ending halfway through 2011," the broker said.The UK inflation rate is likely to have risen above 4% in January, more than double the target rate the Bank of England is aiming for. The rise, from December's 3.7%, can be partly explained by the hiking of the value added tax rate at the beginning of January from 17.5% to 20%, but rising raw material costs have more than played their part. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food prices, is expected to rise to 3.0% from December's 2.9%.INTERIMSAlbemarle & Bond HoldingsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEAbbott Laboratories, Colgate-Palmolive CoINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (JPN)Capacity Utilisation (JPN)Machine Tool Orders (JPN)Bank of Japan target rate (JPN)Tertiary Industry Index (JPN)Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (FRA) (06:30)Gross Domestic Product (GER) (07:00)Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators (EU) (09:00)GDP (Flash Estimate) (EU) (10:00)Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)Business Inventories (US) (13:30)Empire State Manufacturing Survey (13:30)Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)Retail Sales (US) (13:45)Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:15)ABC Consumer Confidence (US) (22:00)Q3British Land Co, Yell GroupQ4Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.GMSCentamin Egypt Ltd.FINALSBarclays, Domino's Pizza UK & IRL, Electric Word, Heavitree Brewery, InterContinental Hotels Group, Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc., Premier Foods, Quarto Group Inc.ANNUAL REPORTImage Scan HoldingsIMSSMicro Focus International PlcAGMSSouthern Cross Healthcare GroupUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Price Index (09:30)Retail Price Index (09:30)DCLH House Prices (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDewhurst
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2 May 2024 13:48

UK shareholder meetings calendar - next 7 days

Friday 3 May 
Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust PLCGM re share issue
HSBC Holdings PLCAGM
Intercontinental Hotels Group PLCAGM
Mondi PLCAGM
More Acquisitions PLCAGM
Monday 6 May 
no events scheduled 
Tuesday 7 May 
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Just Group PLCAGM
Macfarlane Group PLC AGM
Plus500 LtdAGM
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Antofagasta PLCAGM
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLCAGM
Deltex Medical Group PLCAGM
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Haleon PLCAGM
Jardine Matheson PLCAGM
JZ Capital Partners LtdEGM re investing in a secondary fund
Oscillate PLCAGM
Pershing Square Holdings LtdAGM
Rentokil Initial PLCAGM
WPP PLCAGM
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Ascential PLCAGM
BAE Systems PLCAGM
Balfour Beatty PLCAGM
Barclays PLCAGM
CAB Payments Holdings PLCAGM
Catenai PLCGM re convertible loan note
Clarkson PLCAGM
FBD Holdings PLCAGM
Genel Energy plcAGM
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Hiscox LtdAGM
IMI PLCAGM
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Indivior PLCAGM
John Wood Group PLCAGM
Jupiter Fund Management PLCAGM
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Public Policy Holding Co IncAGM
Rathbones Group PLCAGM
RM PLCAGM
Spire Healthcare Group PLCAGM
Synthomer PLCAGM
Uniphar PLCAGM
  
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
  
A full 21-day events calendar is provided each day with a subscription to Alliance News UK Professional.
  
Copyright 2024 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

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NEW YORK April 29 (Reuters) -

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