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* Nickel forecast at $14,750 tonne in Q1; vs $13,955 now
* Brent seen averaging $101 a barrel in Q1 vs about $110 now
* Gold seen at $1,350 an ounce in Q1 and $1,270 by Q4 2014
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Base metals, led by nickel,appear set to trend higher in 2014 due to tighter supplies,while unfavorable economics should keep pressure on gold and oiland prompt investors to avoid much of the commodity complex,Barclays said on Monday.
In another negative outlook on commodities from a majorinvestment bank, London-based Barclays PLC said thatoutflow of money from the sector will not end soon, at least notin the first quarter.
It cited a litany of reasons, including comfortable supplylevels in most raw materials; a still-sluggish global economyand the likely scaling back of the Federal Reserve's stimulusthat had supported commodities.
"It is unlikely investors will warm to commodities in thenear term," said Barclays, which until a few years ago was oneof the biggest proponents of the sector. Goldman Sachs,often regarded Wall Street's most authoritative voice oncommodities, and Citigroup have issued similarly sanguineoutlooks in recent weeks.
NICKEL MOST FAVORED PLAY
Smaller stockpiles has base metals better positioned forgains than other commodities when the new year begins, withnickel in particular due to a planned export ban by Indonesia,Barclays said.
"Most base metals have been stuck in structural surplus to agreater or lesser degree since 2007/08 after what was one of thestrongest-ever periods of supply growth. However, 2014 is likelyto mark the end of this phase."
Nickel hit a one-month high on the London MetalExchange on Monday, closing up 1.4 percent at $13,955 a tonne.
Barclays said it expects the metal to average $14,750 in thefirst quarter and above $15,000 for the rest of the year as theIndonesian ban potentially deprives the Chinese nickel-pig ironsector of crucial raw material.
"There remains some uncertainty over how strictly this banwill be implemented. Even if it is not, nickel prices are solow," it said. Nickel is down 18 percent so far this year.
Barclays said it expected aluminum and lead supplies to turninto a deficit in 2014, and zinc's surplus inventories to shrinkdramatically like nickel's. It forecast modest supply growth incopper, the most-widely traded base metal.
OPEC SUPPLY WEIGHS ON OIL
In crude oil, it said the need for OPEC oil was diminishingand global inventories will climb if members of the producergroup do not cut output. A sluggish global economy weighed onthe outlook for oil, as did a decline in geopolitical risks inoil production areas following the nuclear agreement betweenTehran and the global powers, it said.
Barclays projected oil's benchmark Brent crude toaverage $101 per barrel in the first quarter, versus Monday'slevel of nearly $110. It forecast a high of $108 for the finalquarter of 2014. Brent is down almost 2 percent this year.
For U.S. crude, the projection was $95 a barrel inthe first quarter, versus current prices near $98, and a high of$99 by the year-end. U.S. crude is up about 6 percent this year,outperforming Brent.
"SHORT" GOLD
In the case of gold, Barclays advised investors to "short",or bet on a fall in prices, the precious metal after March, itstarget period for any reduction in the Fed stimulus.
In spite of that, the bank had a higher price expectationfor gold in 2014 versus Monday's traded levels -- a discrepancyit did not explain.
Barclays said gold was likely to average $1,350 an ounce inthe first quarter, although it forecast a drop to $1,270 by theend of 2014. The spot price of gold hovered at $1,240 onMonday, down 26 percent so far this year and heading for itsfirst yearly loss since 2000.
Barclays did not provide price forecasts for theagricultural markets or "softs" commodities such as coffee,sugar, coffee and cocoa. But it cited supply gains in corn andwheat from larger harvests in 2013/2014.
