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* European shares fall led by oil, banks
* Rising U.S. virus cases and lockdowns sour mood
* STOXX down 0.9% after late Wall Street sell-off
* U.S. stock index futures inch lower
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"THE ROTATION IS MUCH MORE THAN NEWSFLOW ON A VACCINE" (1112
GMT)
There is no trace this morning in Europe of the rotation
trade that has made this November so special.
The debate, however, about whether the shift from growth
into value has legs, goes on.
JP Morgan quants have weighed in and their main point is
that the move is much more than a reaction to positive vaccine
news, which provided a powerful catalyst last week.
"We believe the rotation towards Value and out of Quality is
much more than newsflow on a vaccine," strategists at the U.S.
investment bank say, pointing to the very positive trend in
earnings upgrades currently underway.
"Historically, this backdrop has been support to both
Cyclicals and Value stocks," they add.
That said, one may wonder where are the opportunities from
the trend in earnings expectations? Here's their response.
1) The price of Value needs to play catch-up to the sharp
improvement in the earnings trend for Value stocks
2) The upgrades for Staples, Discretionary, Technology and
Health Care are now posting the smallest improvements inEPS
revisions; their data is peaking or is already slowing.
3) The three sectors switches that follow these trends
include: long Financials/short Staples; long Industrials/short
Healthcare; long Energy/short Technology
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
EUROPE AT THE OPEN: ROTATION DARLINGS GET HIT (0830 GMT)
Europe is playing catch up with a late sell-off on Wall
Street, as rising COVID-19 cases and lockdowns in the U.S. are
triggering a broad risk off move.
Those sectors that were favoured during this month's strong
rotation are hit the most this morning as the focus returns to
the pandemic's near term damage to the economy and profits.
Oil, banks, miners, travel and leisure stocks are the top
sectoral fallers in early deals, while healthcare, tech and
defensive utilities are managing to limit losses.
There are some bright spots however. Royal Mail shares are
rising 6% to the top of the STOXX with some analysts flagging an
improved revenue outlook.
Underscoring the damage from the coronavirus crisis is
German conglomerate Thyssenkrupp which said it would need to cut
5,000 more jobs as its latest set of results disappointed. Its
shares are down 6%.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
On the corporate front there are no major market moving
updates but newsflow continues to show how the coronavirus
crisis is hitting businesses hard, even though not all earning
updates are gloomy as online orders and the stay-at-home economy
grows.
Ailing conglomerate Thyssenkrupp said it needs a
further 5,000 jobs to ease the impact of the COVID-19 crisis,
while budget airline Norwegian Air has asked an Irish
court to oversee a restructuring of its massive debt as it seeks
to stave off collapse.
Meantime the FT has reported that Cineworld is
looking at an insolvency process used to cut costs, as part of
its talks with lenders to gain access to capital.
On a more brighter note, French conglomerate Bouygues
has raised its outlook for the second half of the year
on the back of a strong Q3.
British home improvement retailer Kingfisher saw a
17% jump in quarterly underlying sales, continuing to benefit
from the popularity of do-it-yourself during the pandemic.
More online orders helped Naked Wines raise its
full-year sales forecast as H1 revenues grew nearly 80%
, while online shopping helped Royal Mail
boost sales but losses in its letters unit and virus-related
costs led to a slump in pre-tax profit.
Online trading platform CMC Markets posted a record
net operating income as the coronavirus crisis lifted volatility
in financial markets.
Chemicals maker Johnson Matthey reported a slump in
half-year profit and stayed away from providing an outlook for
2021, as the pandemic continued to dent demand.
In M&A, Swiss engineer ABB unveiled plans to
offload three business units that generate $1.75 billion in
sales.
While we're still waiting for AstraZeneca's late
stage trial results, vaccine developments continue to inspire
confidence following the Pfizer and Moderna updates.
Pfizer and BioNTech could secure
emergency U.S. and European authorization for their COVID-19
vaccine next month with first deliveries possibly before
Christmas.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
EUROPE SEEN LOWER ON WALL STREET SLIDE (0636 GMT)
European shares could fall sharply at the open today on the
back of heavy late-session losses on Wall Street overnight as
growing COVID-19 infections and shutdowns in the world's largest
economy sour investor sentiment.
The S&P 500 closed down more than 1% yesterday as
losses accelerated after markets here in Europe closed.
The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 surpassed a grim new
milestone of 250,000 lives lost, while NY Fed's Williams said
the rapid increase in infections could hurt the economy, even
though vaccine developments made him "somewhat more optimistic".
While U.S. stock index futures are now steady after
the sell-off, early indications from European futures
point to declines of nearly 1%.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
