RE: AIM20 Jun 2026 09:35
London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) shares can and occasionally do recover after a 90% fall, but statistically, the odds of a full recovery to previous highs are very low.
While some notable success stories exist, many AIM companies that suffer such dramatic declines eventually delist or go bust.
Recovery Dynamics
The "900% Rule": If a stock falls 90%, it requires a 900% gain just to return to its original price.
For many small-cap companies, generating this level of growth after a catastrophic loss of value is mathematically and operationally difficult.
Historical Failure Rates: A study found that roughly 87% of companies that listed on AIM over a 30-year period either de-listed for negative reasons or failed.
In recent years, approximately 1 in 10 AIM firms have experienced a 90% share price drop.
Success Stories: Rare exceptions like Fever-Tree (LON:FEVR) and Jet2 (LON:JET2) have demonstrated that small AIM companies can scale significantly, though these typically did not suffer 90% crashes before their ascent.
Key Risks for Beaten-Down AIM Shares
"Lobster-Pot" Market: AIM shares often suffer from low liquidity, making it easy to buy but difficult to sell without further crashing the price.
Dilution: Many companies down 90% are desperate for cash and may issue new shares at very low prices to stay afloat, which heavily dilutes existing shareholders and makes a recovery to old highs even more unlikely.
Delisting Risk: Small companies often choose to leave AIM to save on the roughly £500,000 annual maintenance cost of being listed, which can leave remaining shareholders with illiquid, private shares.
2026 Market Outlook
As of mid-2026, the AIM market has seen a modest revival in IPO activity compared to the record lows of 2024, but the overall market remains smaller than its 2007 peak.
New tax rules effective April 2026, which halved inheritance tax relief on AIM shares to 20%, have also impacted investor sentiment.