United States Crude Oil Inventories October 6 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +4700
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -500

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

Forecasts and API..
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +1000
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +400 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experi