George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.

Less Ads, More Data, More Tools Register for FREE
Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc
Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRocView Video
Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors
Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investorsView Video

Latest Share Chat

Juniper Pharmaceuticals

Tuesday, 23rd February 2016 09:40 - by Moosh

In 2015, I followed the uptrend for Juniper Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: JNP) with my IM system, which suggested that the end of the uptrend was going to appear towards the end of 2015.

As it happened, that is more or less exactly what occurred before the price dropped to begin a new cycle after finding a daily RSI oversold position below $6 again. While I was only watching JNP for fun last year, this year will not be for fun since one of my brokers now lets me trade JNP shares! Hurrah.

 

Since JNP found a low priced RSI oversold position in January 2016 when it dropped to about $5.5, I thought it would be helpful to do some research into JNP given that I can now invest in it for real, so that I can be prepared for when an uptrend kicks in if future positive fundamentals allow it. My first port of call was the latest third quarter 2015 results release, which saw the total revenue for JNP to be $29.994m for the 9 months to 30 September 2015. For those who recall my takeover price theory for pharmaceutical companies (see Price Tag, below), then I extrapolate a reasonable takeover price by tripling the revenue and splitting it over the total number of shares. Therefore tripling $29.994m and splitting over 10.967112m shares, yields $8.2 per share - remember that this doesn’t include the fourth quarter 2015 revenue. So when the price dropped to below $6 in January 2016, I thought this was quite a bargain so I took a trial plunge and bought a few tranches in the $5.8-$6.2 range. Clearly I wasn’t the only one who thought this to be a bargain since the price marched up to around the $8 region soon enough, which agrees well with my takeover price theory.

 

So next up, what does JNP do? JNP splits itself into 2 main areas – the parent company currently sells Crinone gel, which accounts for the bulk of its revenue stream, with the rest coming from its services provider subsidiary, Juniper Pharma (formerly Molecular Profiles). The subsidiary is self-funding and prior to being eaten by its parent company, it had shown consistent year-on-year growth. While JNP is seeing growth in its Crinone sales, which should be boosted further by the recent successful marketing authorisation in 9 EU countries, JNP is seeking to expand its portfolio with several new products based around bioadhesive gel delivery systems (BDS) and a novel segmented intravaginal ring technology (IVR). From a recent updated company presentation these systems have the potential to address clinically unmet needs with multibillion dollar markets. JNP is progressing with this currently with a Phase 2b trial for their COL-177 10% lidocaine gel, with the results due mid-2016. JNP can only go so far with Crinone with regards to revenue generation and looking back, it appears that its acquisition of Molecular Profiles was a fantastic move since it provided JNP with world class drug delivery expertise in the form of Professor Martyn Davies, who has brought together a variety of well respected and highly regarded peers to bring these new products to the fore and in time, hopefully to market.

 

As of 30 September 2015, the cash had increased to $17.4m so overall I am comfortable with the company’s ability to generate cash and it looks like trials will be funded from this cash. The pipeline will unfold over the next five years, so ideally this should be regarded as a long term investment. Given that there are less than 11m shares in circulation, it is not one which will be volatile so it isn’t one to trade. To simplify it, I feel the company is stable enough as a ‘jam today’ company, but there are some good prospects for ‘jam tomorrow’ growth on top of what is already being achieved. As an initial step into the world of JNP, I like what I see and have benefitted from investing in it already! The company is also waiting for authorisation of Crinone in Japan, so that would be more than welcome when it happens (theoretically due in 2016).

 

Related articles:

Adventures with IM (JNP) - www.lse.co.uk/blogs/member/moosh-blog/0e7c5v

Price Tag - www.lse.co.uk/blogs/member/moosh-blog/38hd9p

Presentations: http://ir.juniperpharma.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=111526&p=irol-presentations

 

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.

Quickpicks are a member only feature

Login to your account

Don't have an account? Click here to register.