RE: Investor meet presentation6 May 2024 21:47
@ JAllis. I have been following this discussion thread and would like you to note that the actual covenant in the SWK facility is ‘Minimum Group Revenue’ as stipulated in the 28th September 2023 RNS. This means that you need to include Europe (USD1.5m for the whole of 2023, divided into quarters) and the Viatris milestone payment. If you look at the RNS issued on 27th April 2023 you will note that this amount is USD5m but only £0.7m was recognised in the 2022 accounts leaving around USD4.2m (at a 1.19 exchange rate, which seemed to be their chosen reference rate) as income for 2023. This will be released as income through 2023 matching the timing of costs are incurred. This means that your numbers are light by these amounts. It is not possible to know the exact quarterly timing for the release of the Viatris income but dividing it by four does give a reasonable proxy. My numbers show they almost bag on USD15m for Q1 2024 and suspect that the small increase to USD16.5m in Q2 is achievable. The problem is Q3 and if there is any cause for concern it will definitely be during this quarter. They need to grow scripts quicky, sort out Texas and show positive momentum with other territories. At this price these issues are already factored in (in my view) BUT this is not a share for widows, orphans or those with a nervous disposition. The management can find a single banana skin in a sports stadium seating 50,000 and slip on it and so nothing can be taken for granted. However, I did want to correct this SWK Facility default as I believe it is a non-issue at the moment as that can has been kicked firmly down the road to Q3.